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I am into the “big time” these days MrE with 50p and £1 wagers ever since Daphne increased my pocket money
I continue to stumble along doing my own thing and sadly have never had the tolerance to deal with long losing runs even if there is a pot of gold waiting at the end of the rainbow.
However I continue to keep an open mind and am always eager to learn in hope of finding new ideas that may fit with my psyche and will be watching your selections for today – good luck.
Billy's Outback Shack
Losing runs are unavoidable Bill, no matter which end of the market you play. I have me own safety net that helps me keep my rectum tight, that means playing a bit heavier in the place market, but I still have losing runs.
The key to the whole game mate, is planning your betting, utilising your “bank” in the best way possible that enables you to keep your head above water…. yep, you’ll swallow a bit of water along the way, but you should never drown. All you gotta do is wait until someone throws you a lifeline….. so just be happy to tread water for awhile old ‘un….
MrE
Hoping that your still betting at 5p Bill….. doesn’t matter about Matron, he’s always had more money than sense…..
If Billion was down to his last 1 pence he’d still have more money than sense.
Good to see you back MrE, lovely reunion with billyGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
It’s simply a “Bro’mance” Nathan or some might say “Friends with benefits”, whatever, you are more than welcome to join should you feel lonely.
Don’t knock the small stake wagers because I read only this morning of the small player taking Ladbrokes for £450,000 with a 20p acca.
I can only dream of such returns, nevertheless it is good to know it is possible.
Billy's Outback Shack
I wouldn’t knock the small stakes
I find them very useful when I’m feeling ill disciplined, I log into skybet and start shooting out 5p stakes.
My bigger stakes Ante Post bet for Cheltenham went west with Thistlecrack being ruled out but I didn’t batter an eye-lyd at it because it was built up over a long period of time and my real life bank has not noticed it as I put more money in than what I spend. Had I lost the amount on the day I’d be flushing my head down the toilet. Not all is lost though on the Ante Post as I still can make those losses back if Douvan wins, had him at 3/1 over a year ago and have him on many roll overs and accas since with him at odds on but the returns over evens. Again it would be great if he won but I would not blink too hard if he didn’t.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Hi Nat, Matron, VTC and Billy the Skirt…. yep, a winner yesterday, but it only covered yesterdays bets, so I am still 19pts in deficit. I understand that one has to accept losing runs, but it makes you feel like a bit of a prune when you roll straight into it from your first post…
I will explain more a bit later, but these few systems have been showing obscene profits over the last 18 months and I was rather hoping to get off to a flyer but that wasn’t to be…. lets play awhile, it will turn around at these prices.MrE
I have a theory regarding MrE‘s poor start. In fact I have many theories but the one which suits the present scenario more than most being that it is down to the lousy weather and ground conditions.
Most of my (very few) better results have come on the AW surfaces being more consistent or reliable than the NH turf.
Thus I am wondering should I only play Flat racing but I know I will change my mind when the poor babies are running on summer bogs.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hello again my little todger, I hope that this Sunday afternoon sees you fit and fighting…. it seems strange that the pair of us are wasting a Sunday by frequenting “Matron’s Chambers of Delight”, we truly are a sad lot….. unless, of course, Matron is paying you double time for Sunday work.
Your comment about ground conditions and changes of going as being the fault for my bad start, is a bit wide of the mark I think my friend, I have resigned myself to the fact that these losing runs are just normal variance and have to be accepted no matter how uncomfortable, that’s the game we find ourselves in. There is no way that we can make an omelette unless we crack a few eggs…. you are going to get lots of losers, the answer is to accept that fact and try not to get concerned about it…. chuck it to one side.
I’m gonna grab a fish finger sarnie and I’ll be back…. don’t go away….
MrE
The only reason I’m sat sitting here on the Sabbath, is that it’s peeing down outside and I’ve got the devil of a cough/cold that just wont go, so it was time to dip my hand into this can of worms and see if I can get some of you to wriggle. You may (or may not) find this of interest, if you don’t, then just pass me by…. but a couple of you might just find it of interest….. the story continues…
As some of you are aware, I have been under pressure of late and this caused me to completely drop all forms of betting because of lack of time, I never had time to study or even to post or email friends. Over the months I got overwhelmed by everything that was happening, I needed something to get my mind off the current situation, something to immerse myself in totally, even if it was only for a couple of hours at a time…. what better thing is there than to get stuck into the horses. But, as I said before, time was becoming a pain in the botty…. I was willing to put some really hard work and long hours in at the start, providing all the effort made the future easier…. and rosier… So I bought into a database and this is where everything changed.
I was making steady profits most months without the use of the database, but it took too many hours and those hours were at the wrong time of day… evening study was not an option…. but the database changed all that. For the last 6 months I have spent hundreds of hours plonking (technical term) in different criteria and parameters, often changing and altering to make the profit graph climb as smoothly as possible As always happens, you find one path and end up wandering in the different directions that these paths take you…. I was looking for something, just one thing that was profitable… I ended up with 5….
What happens now is that I have my shortlist of selections all ready for me and I apply a few extra criteria that the database cannot cover…. my selection are now made and bets placed within 20 minutes…. all those many hours of studying are now relegated to history….
I’ll finish this in a new post cuz this is getting a bit long….
MrE
OK, armed with my new toy, I wanted to try different ideas… I remembered a “handbag” spat on here with Ginge about value and all that crap, so I looked at the higher prices over a 3 year period and analysed where they came from… was it h/caps, non h/caps, turf, A/W and at what distances and courses etc… I was quite pleased with the results that I was getting, but those losing runs were buttock clenching. I wanted to start with a 100pt bank and I never wanted to lose any more than 50% of that bank, so instead of worrying about losing runs, I concerned myself with keeping UNDER a 50pts Drawdown in any 12 month period…. more number crunching and I managed it.
Yep, the problem of losing runs remained, so I thought it might work if I tempered it with some lower priced selections with a better s/r…. this appeared to do the trick…. but there were a couple of times throughout the months that the systems had a downturn at the same time, never caused a lot of damage, but was a bit scary at the time. It is strange since Bill mentioned it, but these losing sequences appear to be during the N/H season… that in itself is not a reason to give ’em the elbow because they are still really profitable.
Now your going to ask “how profitable”…. nah, you probably don’t care anyway…. but I’d be perfectly happy (and rich) if I only achieved 20% of last years profits. The real questions are… is it back fitted???… the answer is yes…. how the hell can you find the answers to problems if you don’t look at the history, what we need to be asking is…. will it work going forward???… answer, I dunno….
I’ve been betting them with real money for the last 3 months and am showing a tidy profit…. February was a real pig of a month with anything but a steady climb, but still ended in a profit…. this was why I was dreading the 19 loser start to March, is it the beginning of the end???…. I don’t think so, these are only stats and statistics only change over time and I think we still have plenty of time…. but you never know at this game.
We’ll just have to suck it and see….MrE
As always MrE you provide a great read and I am happy for you that all the hard work and long hours you invested proved therapeutic at a time of such disruption in your life.
As I was reading and trying not to think about fish finger sandwiches I could not help consider where it was all leading and back fitting was coming more and more to the fore, just as you point out yourself and I must say the past can be an indicator to the future.
As I read through I was reminded of an old system known, I believe if my memory serves but not to be relied on, but am sure there will be a few here who will also remember it, UNCLE ERNIE.
In fact Uncle Ernie etc. can be renamed in just the same way you are using data . . . . . . TRENDS.
If I may provide perhaps just a simple example. One or two from this place and elsewhere will be aware of my respect for dear old FENMAN who created many of his systems with the use of “trends” and with Cheltenham soon to be upon us it may be to our advantage to consider his thoughts to only bet horses with previous course success there.
So a data base and trends should not surprise anyone as a way to find winners, surely the followers of “Form” are also doing likewise, I could go on and on because the subject is fascinating.
Billy's Outback Shack
Trends and stats are useful, I think… I wouldn’t really have bothered about any of it too much in the past, but certain “things” become more obvious when your looking for them. There are the normal stats such as looking at track topography and why the horse always gets placed on a right handed course but runs a stinker when going left handed. Is it the uphill finish at Cheltenham that makes punters look foolish when the form book goes out the window… racing is so diverse that I think that all this has to be thrown into the equation and to find the reasons why horses, trainers. jockeys find certain tracks more favourable than others…. we know the reasons because most of them are self explanatory, but I wanted the means by which to correlate all the data and point me in the direction of horses that would fit into all these criteria.
Of course, the majority of these horses are gonna lose, we know that before we start, but perhaps old Ginge had another angle with this value… so I look to the higher odds mainly. The stats point me to the horse, now one of my criteria is to only look for the selections that are a minimum of 8/1 early doors, that gives me the option for profitable place bets on those animals….. after that mate, it’s down to my staking and money management to pull in the profits if staking should be required….
As you say Bill, the subject is too large, I have already changed my ways from 2 years ago, it’s become something different with all the different technology around, it’s got a mind of it’s own, I just wanted the winnings to pop into my bank account with as little trouble as possible…. again, it’s a case of wait and see.
MrE
I have mentioned the likes of Uncle Ernie and chucked in a little of my favourite man Fenman but what you are saying MrE has shades another book I read and found fascinating. It was published by the Racing Post and I have checked their bookshop without success and can only think it may be out of print. My other source in the past has been High Stakes bookshop but is no longer available on line.
I do still have the book because it was a Christmas present and has been worthy of a 2nd and 3rd read: –
THE TAIL END SYSTEM
It takes a reverse view (no pun intended) and starts with the examination of the betting forecast with first scrutiny being of the very last or biggest price horse and looks for past clues as to why it may have a chance of winning. If none are found it proceeds to the next and so forth.
It claims more longshots or outsiders, call them as you may win Nation Hunt races than the flat and so is considered a jumps system only.So MrE it is not a million miles away from the 8/1 starting point you describe.
I think we could all follow your example and set our perameters accordingly should we have the mental strength of to suffer some exhausting losing runs.
Billy's Outback Shack
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