Handicap Hikes

[Alexander]

Thanks venture – appreciated
Alex

[Alexander]

3:25pm Carlisle
THURSDAY, 22 OCTOBER 2015
APOLLOBET BEST ODDS GUARANTEED INTERMEDIATE HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-125)
Winner: £6,498 Runners: 7 Distance: 2m1f33y Going: Good

Shear Rock 11-12 [ 6 ]
Quick Brew 11-11 [ 8 ]
Cooking Fat 11-11 [ 0 ]
Lochalsh 11-8 [ -3 ]
Bigindie 11-8 [ 0 ]
Russian Royale 11-8 [ 9 ]
Special Wells 11-8 [ 0 ]
Boruma 10-12 [ -3 ]
May´s Boy 10-10 [ -2 ]
Hadfield 10-8 [ F/H ]
Crinkle Crags 10-7 [ -3 ]
Push Me 0-0 [ 0 ]

Hadfield runs in first handicap againsrt very exposed opponents. Hadfield won 2nd Oct where
Chic Name was second – 2 subsequent runs and a hike of 20lb to support the collateral form
Selection: HADFIELD (W9/4)

[Alexander]

3:45 » Doncaster
FRIDAY, 23 OCTOBER 2015
BETDAQ.COM £50 IN FREE BETS HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95)
Winner: £7,439 Runners: 11 Distance: 1m6f132y Going: Good To Soft

William Of Orange 10-1 [ -1 ]
Noble Silk 9-12 [ -1 ]
Hardstone 9-12 [ 3 ]
Gabrial The Hero 9-5 [ 0 ]
Stonecutter 9-1 [ 0 ]
Craggaknock 9-0 [ 0 ]
Entihaa 8-13 [ -2 ]
Hot Spice 8-13 [ 0 ]
Topaling 8-9 [ -2 ]
Hubertas 8-4 [ 0 ]
Magic Circle 8-2 [ 6 ] ⏏

Magic Circle collects a 6lb penalty to 78, but this appears reasonable given liking for course and going
Recent double winner at cramped odds will pick up rating of 81 in future events.
Selection: MAGIC CIRCLE

[Alexander]

2:35 » Doncaster
SATURDAY, 24 OCTOBER 2015
BETDAQ.COM 2% COMMISSION HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+)
Winner: £28,013 Runners: 18 Distance: 5f Going: Good To Soft

Steps 9-13 [ ]
Easy Road 9-3 [ ]
Demora 8-13 [ 4 ]
Robot Boy 8-12 [ -2 ]
Union Rose 8-9 [ 0 ]
Lucky Beggar 8-7 [ -3 ]
Dungannon 8-6 [ -4 ]
Perfect Pasture 8-6 [ 3 ]
Arctic Feeling 8-6 [ 3 ]
Kimberella 8-4 [ -1 ]
Adam´s Ale 8-4 [ 2 ]
Confessional 8-3 [ -1 ]
Meadway 8-2 [ 0 ]
Desert Ace 8-1 [ -2 ]
Cordial 8-1 [ -2 ]
Pearl Acclaim 8-0 [ -1 ]
El Viento 8-0 [ 3 ] ⏏
Mon Brav 8-0 [ 0 ]

El Viento +3 lbs for good 2nd when drawn low (1st & 3rd high draws)
Winner of that race +7lbs. Perhaps second string for trainer.
SELECTION : EL VIENTO (2nd 14/1)

[Alexander]

I’ve incorporated a time element into predicting the NH hurdle Handicap ratings;

I’m going to review hurdle races and point out opportunities when they arise – thats the plan !

24th Jan seems a good place to start with the mighty Faugheen winning his latest outing. According to my time calculations Faugheen ran (+11lbs) superior to his handicap rating of 174.Perhaps, with only a few runners the 2nd placed Arctic Fire ran an estimated (-4lbs). As he is rated 166 theresultant adjusted rating becomes 166 -4 i.e.162. As Faugheen beat Arctic Fire 15lengths it is reasonable to use Arctic Fire as the yardstick so Faugheen is elevated 162 + 15 = 177.
Somewhat messy but gives a revised rating in a difficult race to gauge the performances.

Doncaster 29th Jan
4 hurdle races
Cyrius Moriviere won by 19 lengths and one would expect a good relative time and speed figure. However, non of these hurdle races proved conclusive. Night of Milan won his 3mile H’cap Hurdle and at 10yrs of age ran right up to his mark of 119 (+3) On slowish ground the more long distance races usually are not favoured by comparison with shorter trips.

Huntingdon 29th Jan
4 Hurdle races
Taj Badalandabad at the 3m distance managed to maintain his handicap rating of 126. Others placed in same race managed same.

Plumpton
01-Feb-16 Monday
(Class 5) (0-100, 4yo+) (1m7f195y) 2m Heavy 9 hdles
Speed OR
1st Loves Destination ( 96 )-( 84 )
2nd Kayflin (FR) ( 84 )-( 85 )
3rd Sir Hubert ( 89 )-( 99 )
4th Get Ready Freddy ( 77 )-( 96 )
5th Willshebetrying ( ✗ )-( 96 )
6th Warrant Officer ( ✗ )-( 90 )
7th Rior (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 98 )
8th Honourable Exit (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 89 )

[Venture to Cognac]

Good to see you back Alexander, good luck with the project

[Alexander]

thanks – appreciated

[Alexander]

Hurdle races today at Cheltenham, Doncaster, Uttoxeter and Fairyhouse.

Doncaster had the best conditions regarding the going. Barters Hill 150 (+3) with outsider Ballydine 132 (+2) returned best figures from the 3mile event.

Cheltenham as expected returns high class outcomes and Yanworth managed the days best 148 (+5) rating.
Shantou Village 2nd managed 146 (-2). Yanworth remains favourite for the Neptune Novice Hurdle Wed 16th March at the Cheltenam Festival.

Cheltenham
30-Jan Saturday
(Class 1) (4yo) (2m179y) 2m1f New Heavy 8 hdles
(GRADE 2) Speed OR
1st Protek Des Flos (FR) ( 128 )-( — )
2nd Clan Des Obeaux (FR) ( 131 )-( — )
3rd Consul De Thaix (FR) ( 125 )-( — )
4th Who Dares Wins (IRE) ( 132 )-( 148 )
5th Duke Of Medina (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 138 )
6th Wolf Of Windlesham (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 137 )

Cheltenham
30-Jan Saturday
(Class 1) (4yo+) (2m4f56y) 2m4½f New Heavy 10 hdles
(GRADE 2) Speed OR
1st Yanworth ( 136 )-( 148 )
2nd Shantou Village (IRE) ( 129 )-( 146 )
3rd Champers On Ice (IRE) ( 119 )-( 143 )
4th Chef D’Oeuvre (FR) ( 112 )-( — )
5th Baden (FR) ( ✗ )-( — )
6th Royal Vacation (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 128 )
7th Clondaw Cian (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 135 )
8th Charmix (FR) ( ✗ )-( 145 )

Cheltenham
30-Jan Saturday
(Class 1) (5yo+) (2m7f213y) 3m New Heavy 12 hdles
(GRADE 2) Speed OR
1st Thistlecrack ( 132 )-( 168 )
2nd Ptit Zig (FR) ( 112 )-( 159 )
3rd The Romford Pele (IRE) ( 110 )-( 136 )
4th Knockara Beau (IRE) ( 110 )-( 140 )
5th Camping Ground (FR) ( ✗ )-( 163 )
6th The Young Master ( ✗ )-( 144 )
7th Guitar Pete (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 146 )

Cheltenham
30-Jan Saturday
(Class 2) (4yo+) (2m179y) 2m1f New Heavy 8 hdles
HANDICAP HURDLE Speed OR
1st Solstice Star ( 127 )-( 127 )
2nd Cheltenian (FR) ( 162 )-( 153 )
3rd Frodon (FR) ( 134 )-( 138 )
4th Prairie Town (IRE) ( 136 )-( 129 )
5th Champagne At Tara ( ✗ )-( 129 )
6th Olofi (FR) ( ✗ )-( 127 )
7th Clean Sheet (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 135 )
8th Prouts Pub (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 131 )
9th Maestro Royal ( ✗ )-( 127 )

Uttoxeter & Fairyhouse had seriously slow times and race figures not used as guide for these meetings.
***********************************************************

[Alexander]

Sunday Punchestown & Sedgefield
3 hurdle races from Punchestown with Ball D’Arc 131 (+12) returning the best relative time.
Looks solid with 5 hurdles run to date and only recently officially rated. Sold for 80,000 Euros June 2014.
Runner up in that listed race Royal Cavalier 130 (+9) also managed good figures with a 3 length beating.

Sedgefield had 4 hurdles but the quality of races poor. Card Games 103(+8) managed her first win having run only 4 hurdles. Placed runners in that race with a consistent few points below the ratings. Notwithstanding the poor racing Card Games may prove worthy and will be added to the list of those to follow.

**************************

[Alexander]

Plumpton today with only 3 hurdle races. Loves Destination returned the days best rating managing 11 lbs better than the Handicap rating.

Plumpton
01-Feb-16 Monday
(Class 5) (0-100, 4yo+) (1m7f195y) 2m Heavy 9 hdles
HANDICAP HURDLE Speed OR
1st Loves Destination ( 96 )-( 84 )
2nd Kayflin (FR) ( 84 )-( 85 )
3rd Sir Hubert ( 89 )-( 99 )
4th Get Ready Freddy ( 77 )-( 96 )
5th Willshebetrying ( ✗ )-( 96 )
6th Warrant Officer ( ✗ )-( 90 )
7th Rior (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 98 )
8th Honourable Exit (IRE) ( ✗ )-( 89 )

[Alexander]

Looking back at last week’s Hurdle races:
Perhaps with all the hike of Cheltenham’s stars on parade the Hobbs trained Handicapper
CHELTENIAN may have gone under the radar. Ran Chelt Sat 30th and in finishing 2nd in fast handicap race managed the week’s best performance (162) time rating against 153 official rating.
*NB Ante post for 13th Feb H’cap Hurdle at 25/1.
*************************************************

[Alexander]

Four Hurdle races today in Heavy conditions with a couple of Handicaps in the mix to help with the time ratings.
Oscar Jane ran arguably the best in the first race over 3 miles. This meet not likely to figure as the week progresses.

[Alexander]

Plenty of races today: Down royal, Leicester, Newcastle & Ludlow. Down Royal and Leicester didn’t give up enough data to be useful regarding timings. Newcastle did not have any Hurdles on their card. I’ve analysed the Ludlow Hurdle races ; Very routine outcomes with the Handicaap race proving a good yardstick.
Reyno goes into the notebook – managed a time rating of (111) with Official rating of (102). Reyno has slipped back from OR of 107. At 8 yrs yet to win.

********************************************************************************************************************

[Alexander]

Towcester & Wincanton: Wincanton going heavy and extremely slow & unreliable recorded times.

[Alexander]

Hi
Next post on Sunday with the week-end hurdle racing and associated race figures & their Official ratings.

Alex

[Alexander]

Best of the Week-end’s race timings.

[Alexander]

Good quality hurdling at Mussleburgh yesterday (Sunday 7th) with a 14K listed race producing good race timings.

[Author]

Posts