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Might they risk Champagne Classic for this? A novice but will be 9 and appears to have the right attributes for a National
I’ve decided just to bet Kimberlite Candy as this years early bet.
50-1 5 places with Bet365
Good luck Roses, looks a decent price to me.
Be interesting to see how gets on if he traps at Warwick.
Can anyone tell me why Elegant Escape has gone up 4 pounds to 164 (Racing Post) for being unplaced in the Welsh National when the runner up only went up 3 pounds. I dont get it. If anything EE shouldve gone down a couple of pounds. Don’t look right. Can’t see him winning off the new mark now.
Mike – was EE not already due to go up before the Welsh National (and so therefore four pounds ‘well in’ for the race itself)?
At the moment, I’m on Le Breuil and Big River for this, and both are running this weekend.
It’d be better if Le Breuil ran a good race without winning at Warwick to preserve his h/cap mark. Big River is the opposite, his current mark of 137 probably won’t make the GN cut, so a 7lb rise for winning at Kelso would work well.
I would probably wait till nearer the time to check the ground, but Potters Corner is definitely one I’m interested in, as well as the very promising Lord Du Mesnil.
They’re the two that I’m most interested in right now.
Kimberlite Candy firmly put himself in the reckoning for this after today. Will probably go up 10/12lbs, but that’s probably a blessing if connections want to guarantee a run. I wasn’t convinced how genuine he is until today, but he showed plenty of guts and I’d be more than sure he’ll see out 4 miles 2. Very tempted to take the price as it stands.
I’ve taken 25/1 KC, Peter. I backed him two or three times in 2018 and lost faith in him. Headgear seems to have transformed him and that was the best Grand National trial I’ve seen since One For Arthur won the same race in 2017. Unlike that one, KC was in the van throughout off a sound pace, jumped better than I thought he would on a tricky track and absolutely powered away at the end. I was thinking he might go up 7lbs; we shall see.
Another unusual factor for me was watching him run through the whole race seemingly with the choke out, never looking relaxed or switched off in the way many stayers are. I had strong doubts he’d get home.
Trainer says he will only go to Aintree if the ground is suitable. Most of his racing has been on soft. The National has not been run on good ground since 2012. The last 7 runnings have met the course’s declared policy of having easy ground for the race. Even at good to soft they must surely take their chances with a horse who’s catching fire at exactly the right time.
Until now I fancied Elegant Escape strongly, but I fear Tizz will balls up his schedule. Even at his best I think he’ll struggle to beat the KC we saw today. One potential downside is that the effects of the headgear will wear off, but he looked the most genuine horse in the world today.
fancied Elegant Escape strongly, but I fear Tizz will balls up his schedule.
He’s using the Gold Cup as a prep race. There’s your answer. If they ran the Eider the week before the National he would probably use that as a prep race.
Waroftheroses, that’s a great early call with Kimberlite Candy, 50/1 a very nice price.
I’m very interested in Discorama for this, and I think that 66/1 is just far too big.
Autumnal, what about your old pal Anibale Fly?
Placed in last two renewals of The Gold Cup and Grand National, has dropped a good few pounds, and crucially, won’t be coning here off the back of a hard slog in The Gold Cup. His absence from the entries for The Gold Cup might be significant.
33’s looks very big, and you can get 25’s NRNB.
The fact he’s been round there twice already is a negative for me, but he makes the shortlist.
Still no bet for me in this, bar a few live perms with Tiger Roll NRNB, so I’m waiting till the entry stage now.
Shortlist
Tiger Roll
Any Second Now
Champagne Classic
Anibale FlyAs it stands my shortlist is Walk In The Mill, Kimberlite Candy and Magic Of Light. Would like at least one more run for Walk In The Mill and Magic Of Light.
Anibale Fly would be of interest if they got another run into him and he showed at least a bit of spark. Can’t be having him after his two runs so far.
Molly The Dolly is one I’d be really keen on, but her lack of experience would worry me at this stage.
I’ve committed to Kimberlite Candy at 25’s
Topped up again on Le Breuil at 50s for small stakes. Ran perfectly fine on Saturday needing further and a more galloping track.
Pauling is still struggling for winners for all that his stable is running much better than earlier in the season, hopefully come April he’ll be flying!I am not much of an ante post punter or a particularly big fan of the National but I have been tempted by Kimberlite Candy at 25/1.
Agree with steeplechasing. I was really impressed with him at Warwick in a race which is a good trial. He jumps, travels and stays well. If he is in contention crossing the Melling Road he will have to be taken very seriously.
I think 25/1 is very fair. I suppose Tiger Roll is making the market to some extent but you should never be scared of one horse. Especially when it has not been seen this season.
I hope the bookmakers have underrated the horse due to him being trained by an under the radar trainer. I reckon he would be a fair bit shorter if he was trained by Henderson, Nicholls, Tizzard, Mullins or Elliot.
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