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Arghhhh!
Baden not fit.
Contemplated the winner as a saver and didn’t do it.
Although today could easily have been worse, had Late lays on Ericht and Wholestone (both 2nd).Value Is Everything2:25 Cheltenham
35 points @ 11/1 (Sportsook) Double Shuffle* (min 9/1)
28 points @ 8/1 (Sportsook) Frodon* (min 15/2)
17 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Village Vic* (min 16/1)(£194 available)
15 points @ 39/1 (betfair) Vintaga Vinnie* (min 28/1)(£27 available)
15 points @ 47/1 (betfair) Potters Cross* (min 33/1)(£18 available)Value Is Everything2:25 Cheltenham
35 points @ 11/1 (Sportsook) Double Shuffle* (min 9/1)
28 points @ 8/1 (Sportsook) Frodon* (min 15/2)
17 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Village Vic* (min 16/1)(£194 available)
15 points @ 39/1 (betfair) Vintaga Vinnie* (min 28/1)(£27 available)
15 points @ 47/1 (betfair) Potters Cross* (min 33/1)(£18 available)saver:
22 points @ 5/1 (B365) More Of That (min 5/1)Value Is Everything1:50 Cheltenham
34 points @ 10.5/1 (betfair) Fourth Act* (min 17/2)(£378 available)
28 points @ 8.8/1 (betfair) Cogry* (min 15/2)(£28 available)
27 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair) Warrantor* (min 14/1)(£57 available)
saver:
10 points @ 9/1 (B365) Sausalito Sunrise (min 9/1)Value Is EverythingI backed More Of That ante-post for the RSA and now given the same mark as RSA winner who finished 8 1/2 lengths in front of him. So not that well handicapped on what he’s done over fences. However, MOT finished with blood in nostrils that day and undoubtedly well handicapped on hurdles form. Stable are out of form which is a big negative; on the other hand Jonjo seems unusually bullish which suggests he’s going really well at home. Trouble is it wouldn’t take much to be going a lot better than ill horses. Just a saver this time.
MOT’s stable-mate Taquin De Suil ran well enough over hurdles on reappearance to suggest is still capable. Not sure many of these could get within 13 lengths of Vautour (Ryanair) at level weights either. Good record around here, twice winner as a novice including of 12 runner 2014 JLT. However, will need to be at least as good as ever at a time Jonjo’s horses have been running poorly.
Frodon is only 4 years old, chase career only two months old and beaten fields of 5, 4 and 3. However, he’s so far jumped particularly well. Am also a great fan of Shantou Village who Frodon had beat when that one fell at the last at Wincanton. Could make in to a top novice this season. Those three runs were on a soundish surface, but has hurdles form on soft ground. I’d like to see an inexperienced chaser who’s not used to big fields go around the outer – not amongst horses. Harry Cobden is as good as most experienced jockeys, well worth 3 lbs claim. Around 8/1 worth taking imo.
Stable companion As De Mee is interesting, won maiden chase at Fontwell first time up this season. However, doesn’t have a good win to run ratio and I wonder how much he’ll find in a competitive affair. Can’t say he won’t win, but on what he’s done so far is a ridiculously short.
Double Shuffle is one I like, Taken 11/1. Ran at least as well as ever to get within a head of Art Mauresque at Chepstow on reappearance. On a 5 lbs higher mark but Stable are in excellent form now and this 6 year old can improve for the added test of stamina this race should bring. Hopefully his jumping will stand the test, it did when 3rd in the novice handicap here at the Festival. Only 2 lbs better off for 4 1/2 lengths with 2nd Bouvreuil, but has probably improved since. Nicholls horse might not be the most reliale, loomed up that day but winner Ballyalton found more. Art Mauresque needs the rain to stay away.
Can’t be with a Venittia Williams horses this early in the season, Aso and Tenor Nivernais a non-runner which should help other prominent runners Village Vic and Vintage Vinnie. Aso won a 4 runner novice at Newton Abbott on final start last season. Ran well enough over an inadequate 2 miles in Arkle, might improve over this trip this season although needs to brush up his jumping for a test like this…
…If Buywise ever does the same, he’d capture a big one. Has had so many chances. Needs a strongly run race at this trip to have them coming back to him. Jockey has found it difficult to judge the pace. Now 9 years old and seemingly unlikely to improve.
Stilletto non-runner.
Village Vic improved to win four on the bounce last season, including two big Cheltenham handicaps. Then came 9th in the Ryanair (outclassed) and 13th in Topham (unable to lead/race prominently). Isn’t especially well treated now, but if able to get a good early position (Vintage Vinnie only other proper front runner) it’s possible could resume progression. Can be difficult to pass. Around 20/1 worth taking.
Two Sizing’s have gone to in form Colin Tizzard. Sizing Granite was 33/1 for the Champion Chase and lost all chance at the first. Also 7 lengths 2nd, giving 2 lbs to winner Top Gamble in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse final start for Colm Murphy at around the minimum trip. Yet to race at this trip, but his new trainer enstils stamina in to most of his horses. Tizzards bought Fox Norton after Sizing Platinum chased him home by 11 lengths on debut for the yard, off a mark 2 lbs lower than here – himself 9 lengths clear of the third. I’d prefur Platinum over Granite.
Rebecca Curtis is still going great guns and I’ve followed VTC in and backed both her representitives at massive prices. Punters don’t like backing horses out of the handicap and often go off bigger than they should. Didn’t stop Potters Cross when 3 lbs out at Chepstow last time, in a 16 runner handicap. 4lbs out this time, but I like improving horses from in form yards. This might be a little on the short side for him, hopefully there’ll be enough rain to make it a test. Vintage Vinnie also imo worth taking a chance on. Had been wearing a hood until three starts ago, two wins and a good third since appendages discarded – ran well behind good novices Vigilio and Brother Tedd last time. I’m taking a bit of a chance on the ground, but he is 40+/1. Who knows… if they let him loose on the lead anything could happen.
Last year’s winner Annacotty is 9 lbs higher now, has won since – off a mark of 151, but 156 looks too high.
Thomas Crapper doesn’t win often enough, first time cheek pieces working the oracle at Newbury 6 starts back and first time tongue tie needs to do the same here. Looks increasingly temperamental.
Ten year old Ballynagour has some soft ground form, seems much more consistent on goodish ground these days. Even a return to his best shouldn’t be enough off top weight. Ran well when 2nd off this mark in Summer Plate last time, but was 8 lengths behind the winner and probably more progressive types in this race.
2:25 Cheltenham
35 points @ 11/1 (Sportsook) Double Shuffle* (min 9/1)
28 points @ 8/1 (Sportsook) Frodon* (min 15/2)
17 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Village Vic* (min 16/1)(£194 available)
15 points @ 39/1 (betfair) Vintaga Vinnie* (min 28/1)(£27 available)
15 points @ 47/1 (betfair) Potters Cross* (min 33/1)(£18 available)saver:
22 points @ 5/1 (B365) More Of That (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingWarrantor 17.5/1 2nd.
Village Vic 20/1 (took some 39/1 just before the off) led all bar the line.Crossbar stuff indeed.
Have you got a gun I could borrow Mtoto?Value Is EverythingHey, these things happen GT, don’t be thinking like that. I was done for 2 decent 4 figure wins myself though around half my stakes were covered by place bets. Keep faith in your methods and there’ll be more good days than bad ones. It’s the long term that counts in this game.
1:55 Cheltenham
79 points @ 3/1 (B365) Special Tiara* (min 11/4)Value Is Everything2:30 Cheltenham
34 points each way @ 15/2 (PP) Modus* (min 6/1)29 points @ 11/1 (B365) Sternrubin* (min 9/1)
Value Is Everything1:55 Cheltenham
79 points @ 3/1 (B365) Special Tiara* (min 11/4)29 points @ 11/4 (Sportsook) Fox Norton (min 11/4)
Value Is EverythingHey, these things happen GT, don’t be thinking like that. I was done for 2 decent 4 figure wins myself though around half my stakes were covered by place bets. Keep faith in your methods and there’ll be more good days than bad ones. It’s the long term that counts in this game.
Spot on Mtoto, the downs don’t last long, looking forward to today.
Value Is Everything2:05 Ascot
51 points @ 13/2 (B365) Kylemore Lough* (min 11/2)saver:
21 points @ 5/2 (B365) Gods Own (min 5/2)Value Is EverythingMight be another bet in the 2:05, been refused the bet and told to come back tomorrow. Suspect the price will have gone by then, but we’ll see.
Value Is Everything2:05 Ascot
51 points @ 13/2 (B365) Kylemore Lough* (min 11/2)saver:
21 points @ 5/2 (B365) Gods Own (min 5/2)Another:
9 points @ 5/2 (B365) Gods Own (min 5/2)
and:
24 points @ 16/1 (PP) Eduard* (min 13/1)Value Is Everything
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