- This topic has 1,516 replies, 1 voice, and was last updated 6 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
3:35 Goodwood:
31 points @ 9/1 (B365) Plutonian (min 8/1)
saver:
20 points @ 13/8 (Unibet) Gabr (min 6/4)Not an easy race to asssess.
Gabr didn’t run well last time, but raced in the middle of the track at Ponte which is far from ideal. Ran well enough other than that, but was highly promising in both Racing Post Trophy (5 lengths 5th to Saxon Warrior) and Heron Stakes (3/4 length behind Without Parole) in May and this the first time he’s raced on soft ground since. Could be quite a bit of improvement to come on the surface. Tongue tied for the first time. Can never work out whether that’s a posi or a negi. By Arc placed Intello out of a dam by normally stamina influence Nayef. Dam Spacious didn’t seem to stay 10f. Although not a given I feel Gabr should stay, especially as there doesn’t seem a great deal of pace in the race. Saver.
On the pace front, doesn’t appear a natural out and out front runner. Most likely is imo Plutonian, which is part of the reason I’ve gone for him. Apart from last time out when didn’t get the best of runs, Plutonian’s form looks progressive. Needs to progress again, but with the possibility of positional advantage more improvement seems likely. Made most penultimate effort, in a handicap off a mark of 97 at the Glorious Goodwood meeting, 1/2 length second to Alfaaris trying to give him 2 lbs. Winner franked form when 2 1/2 lengths second in a York handicap off a 6 lbs higher mark. Biggest quuestion mark is on the ground, disappointed softest ground he’s raced on, but that was on reappearance and when stable were in poorer form than now. imo Worth taking a chance given the price. I’ve backed a Jamie Spencer horse at Goodwood!!!
Threading has raced prominently before, but her best two efforts this term were when held up. Has form on any going but inconsistent. I backed her when second to Alpha Centauri, but was 6 lengths behind that top filly. Even so has a good chance on form but hasn’t lived up to that in four starts since. Market support is a good sign with Mark Johnston seemingly back in form after customary mid-August/early-September slump.
Other one with good form is First Sitting. If running to Deauville form that saw him beating Garlingari in a Group 3 has a good chance here. But the French horse imo didn’t show his best that day and therefore First City flattered. Not been in the same form in several races since, including winning here in May. Good record here but not convinced he wants a soft surface.Value Is Everything4:10 Goodwood:
21 points each way @ 8/1 (B365 1/5th first 3) Pretty Jewel (min 7/1)
saver:
11 points @ 4/1 (sportingbet) Lorelina (min 7/2)Interesting handicap where temperament could be key.
Do like What A Home‘s chance on ratings, should improve for the step up in trip and first time blinkered. But carries head high and not sure she goes through with her effort.
Elasia could be the improver; lightly raced and should be suited by the trip. But has not raced on this ground and goes so well on a firmish surface must be a doubt on this ground – although is by Nathanial and have heard good judge Jonibake say his stock go well on soft. Too short for me @ around 3/1.
Lorelina did me a favour at Salisbury and loes getting her toe in. Horse and trainer been in excellent form and can (needs to) improve. Runs as if this longer trip is going to be right up her street. Has an excellent tempeerament, a real trier. Saver.
Another good’n is Pretty Jewel. Goes really well on a soft surface and did well to get within 1 1/2 lengths of the prominently ridden winner last time out. Several of these today are ridden prrominently and it’s possible they could set it up for her. Each way poke.
Other one with a chance is Codicil. One of those Sir Mark P horses going up a long way in trip. Could improve but needs to.Value Is EverythingI’ll expand on my answer David, because was accused yesterday of lieing about the prices I quote!
I’ve backed every horse on my threads myself.
Many bookmakers have either closed accounts or put such limits on me they’d might as well be closed. But I’ll obviously not advise my followers to take 7/2 if 4/1 is available to them – because my followers are presumably not closed or limited. Although occasionally need to take a slightly shorter price with another bookmaker myself, the vast, vast majority of my own bets these days are done via betfair. So my own bet will be of the same sort of price. One bookie I won’t name (don’t want to tip them off) is the only one I use regularly myself. Am sure not the only TRFer who’s kept on by some bookmakers (to limited stakes) in order to tip them off who they’ve got wrong. eg Majority of SkyBet selections shorten usually within seconds of me placing a bet! And they’re not the only ones.
These days if the top price is only available with a bookmaker I can’t bet with and is yet to achieve anything like the same price on betfair… I’ll sometimes need to wait – not betting myself or tipping – until I can get on at a reasonable price. Sometimes have to wait until morning. Frustrating, as a lot of the time a price goes!
Part of getting good odds is allowing the market to offer a bigger price. If a horse is the same price across the board on Oddschecker – even if thinking it value – it’ll obviously take some time to disappear and/or someone is likely to up the offer (including betfair layers). So I tend to take prices (even if on betfair) which are on offer with only up to four bookmakers (seldom more). Also, if I think a price is good then other good value judges will think it’s a good price too… And being a Timeform subscriber I’ve often come to the same conclusions as their 1-2-3 experts… Timeform’s 1-2-3 often dominates evening market moves. So all these things mean prices I quote often don’t last long. Which is one reason I give a minimum price.
The price I take on betfair is more often than not slightly bigger than the quoted bookmaker price. In the past I used to quote mostly (or a lot of) betfair prices, but had some complain they change even quicker than bookmakers and/or poor liquidity means TRFers can’t get on at quoted prices. Sometimes still need to quote betfair prices, but if bookmakers prices are close to betfair I tend to use oddschecker, quoting best price on their board. Although I don’t use the less well known ones on their list; try to refresh the page before quoting (aware it can be slow changing) and don’t quote ante-post prices which are clearly yet to be re-assessed by their odds compilers (not actually available).
If aware a horse I’ve backed has shortened before tipping it up then will always quote the shortened price. This also means occasionally when a price lengthens before I can get on here to tip it up I’ll quote the slightly bigger odds than I took myself. Again, I won’t advise followers to take a lower price than currently available.
ie I never knowingly quote odds which are not currently available at time of writing.
Value Is Everything4:10 Newmarket
62 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Nearly Caught (min 100/30)Value Is Everything4:10 Newmarket
62 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Nearly Caught (min 100/30)
saver:
18 points @ 5/1 (PP) Sevenna Star (min 9/2)Value Is Everything4:10 Newmarket
62 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Nearly Caught (min 100/30)
saver:
18 points @ 5/1 (PP) Sevenna Star (min 9/2)
28 points @ 15/2 (B365) Ben Vrackie (min 7/1)Value Is Everything3:35 Newmarket:
28 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Arctic Sound (min 8/1)Value Is Everything3:35 Newmarket:
28 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Arctic Sound (min 8/1)
19 points @ 14/1 (PP) Bye Bye Hong Kong (min 12/1)Value Is Everything3:35 Newmarket:
28 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Arctic Sound (min 8/1)
19 points @ 14/1 (PP) Bye Bye Hong Kong (min 12/1)
saver:
16 points @ 3/1 (C) Prince Eiji (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingHi GT – How would you adjust stakes and odds on your selections due to the 2 NR’s in this race?
4:10 Newmarket
62PT 4/1 Nearly Caught min 100/30 Reduction Factor 71.3% 3.57-3.09
28PT 15/2 Ben Vrackie min 7/1 Reduction Factor 71.3% 6.06-5.70Normally I would adjust the odds based on Betfair’s reduction factor % but I don’t alter stakes. Also, I can’t factor in the effect on how the race may be run with the absence of the two NR’s.
The two horses backed are deliberately those I thought would go prominent, Mtoto; and with Saracen Knight out they’re likely to get even more of a positional advantage. Trouble is Ben is a lot shorter now even allowing for the non-runners.
If betting right now it would be:
EDIT wrong
Value Is EverythingSorry, Mtoto; got that wrong.
98 points NC 2.7/1 with a 38 point saver BV @ 2.8/1
Value Is EverythingIf you’ve already had a 62 point bet then an extra 36 points NC.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.