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2:55 Newbury
33 points @ 5/1 (VC) Heez A Cracker* (min 5/1)Sorry, above bet should be
Sew On Target
@ 5/1.
Bet on Heez A Cracker to come.
Value Is Everything2:55 Newbury
33 points @ 5/1 (VC)SEW ON TARGET
* (min 5/1)
33 points @ 6/1 (B365) Heez A Cracker* (min 11/2)
Value Is Everything2:55 Newbury
33 points @ 5/1 (VC)SEW ON TARGET
* (min 5/1)
33 points @ 6/1 (B365) Heez A Cracker* (min 11/2)
Saver:
15 points @ 9/2 (VC) Keki Buku (min 9/2)Value Is Everything3:30 Newbury
20 points each way @ 7/1 (b365) Savant Bleu* (min 13/2)
12 points each way @ 12/1 (b365) Bennys Mist* (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingZarkandar will never be impressive Ben, he’ll never win any race on the bridle. Finding plenty for vigorous riding. Not a good work horse at home and stable expected Prospect Wells to beat him on reappearance. But obviously Zark keeps on pulling out more for pressure, so might be a bit better than shown so far. Just a niggling doubt about speed. If they go a really fast pace from the off then might still win; but there doesn’t seem to be a natural front-runner to take the early pace on this year.
Have backed HF antepost at 9/2 so looking for a little insurance will have saver bets on one or maybe two others with PP. Had a good look at the form tonight and watched a few races back and Zarkandar has got the better of Garndouet on all 3 times they’ve met, even when Grandouet was unluckily brought down at Aintree i’m fairly confident Zark would have won.
He has 7 wins from 9 starts all at the top level, has course form, festival form and has a far more consistent overall book of form than either ROR or Grandouet, so will definitely be having a saver on Zarkandar…might just leave it at that, Harry Fry is in tremendous form though….
4:00 Newbury
37 points @ 9/2 (PP) Explained* (min 9/2)
26 points @ 10/1 (PP) Thunder Sheikh* (min 8/1)Value Is Everything4:00 Newbury
37 points @ 9/2 (PP) Explained* (min 9/2)
26 points @ 10/1 (PP) Thunder Sheikh* (min 8/1)saver:
14 points @ 9/2 (B365) Was My Valentine (min 9/2)Value Is EverythingZarkandar will never be impressive Ben, he’ll never win any race on the bridle. Finding plenty for vigorous riding. Not a good work horse at home and stable expected Prospect Wells to beat him on reappearance. But obviously Zark keeps on pulling out more for pressure, so might be a bit better than shown so far. Just a niggling doubt about speed. If they go a really fast pace from the off then might still win; but there doesn’t seem to be a natural front-runner to take the early pace on this year.
Have backed HF antepost at 9/2 so looking for a little insurance will have saver bets on one or maybe two others with PP. Had a good look at the form tonight and watched a few races back and Zarkandar has got the better of Garndouet on all 3 times they’ve met, even when Grandouet was unluckily brought down at Aintree i’m fairly confident Zark would have won.
He has 7 wins from 9 starts all at the top level, has course form, festival form and has a far more consistent overall book of form than either ROR or Grandouet, so will definitely be having a saver on Zarkandar…might just leave it at that, Harry Fry is in tremendous form though….
There is no doubt in my mind Pants that Zarkandar and Grandouet are evenly matched. I rate them equals. But they’re not the same price, Grandouet is 7/1 (6/1 WAR) as apposed to Zarkandar 5/1. In my opinion the Henderson horse has a better than 12.5% chance of winning. Where as I do not believe Zarkandar’s chance is better than 16.7%. So I don’t need to believe one is better than the other to back Grandouet. I’d rate both of them as fair 5/1 shots at this stage.
It is true that Zarkandar has beaten Grandouet all three times they’ve met Pants. I wouldn’t be at all confident about the result at Aintree had Grandouet stood up there. On a course more condusive to speed.
Although it’s true Grandouet has not got winning Festival form, but he’s only run once there, having been injured last year.
Grandouet’s record is almost (if not just) as good. 5 wins from his last 9 and arguably would’ve won the two where he was brought down (Aintree) and fell (Wincanton)…
And in fact in the International – on ratings Grandouet put up a better performance in coming second than the winner did; having given 4 lbs and beaten just 2 lengths. So it could easily have been 7 from last 9 plus another where he put up the best performance. Maybe Zarkandar would’ve pulled out more had Grandouet got to him, but we don’t know. Nicholls’ horse had already had a run and Henderson’s off a long lay off. Looking at their records Zarkandar does find more off the bridle than his rival, but look at the race…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTTb83PJ0ew
…This took place on heavy ground, a surface very much more suited to stamina horse Zarkandar. See how the Pink jockey was at his mount some way from home. On a sounder surface I suspect Jacob will not be able to keep up at some stage; as happened last year. On the other hand, if within hailing distance coming up the hill – nothing will be finishing as strongly Pants.
It’s going to be a very interesting race.
Value Is Everything4:35 Newbury
32 points @ 5/1 (L) Midnight Tuesday* (min 5/1)
32 points @ 5/1 (FD) Reginaldinho* (min 5/1)
Saver:
10 points @ 13/2 (VC) Buffalo Bob (min 13/2)Value Is EverythingAgree with most of what you say Ginge and don’t get me wrong I’m a Grandouet fan and there’s obviously not much between them but Grandouet’s form is a little if, buts and maybes, with 3 of his wins also below the top level, whereas Zarkandar’s is in the book and all Grade 1.
I also think Grandouet has had a less than ideal prep which is a concern for me, in my opionion Zark is rightly second fave.
Like you say very interesting race with the prospect of C&A returning to form on good ground also.
To be fair though if HF runs to his best form and everything this season suggests he might (although don’t think he has yet at Cheltenham even when he won) the rest are running for 2nd place imo.
1:50 Newbury
22 points each way @ 11/2 (VC) Leo Luna* (min 11/2)Value Is Everything2:20 Newbury
28 points each way @ 9/2 (FD) Silver Eagle* (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingLike you say very interesting race with the prospect of C&A returning to form on good ground also.
To be fair though if HF runs to his best form and everything this season suggests he might (although don’t think he has yet at Cheltenham even when he won) the rest are running for 2nd place imo.
Even if C&A comes back to form Pants, I can’t see him making the neccessary improvement to win it.
You’ve certainly got the value on HF! However, hasn’t really beaten any good horse (that’s run to form) this term. Not convinced Thousand Stars is as good this year and Binocular below best. Unaccompanied is not top class. Probably needed the race on reappearance where Go Native looked to be going better at the last… I think he ran to form to win the Champion Hurdle; but not last year. Can get a bit fizzed up beforehand and that may well effected his effort that day.
So (imo) should be favourite, but not as short as current price.
Value Is Everything3:50 Newbury
38 points @ 5/1 (WH) Garrynella* (min 9/2)Hopefully Hills will allow you the whole stake.
Value Is Everything
- Total Posts 764
3:50 Newbury
38 points @ 5/1 (WH) Garrynella* (min 9/2)I like Garynella in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham, 31/ on Betfair. Didn’t realise it was racing tomorrow so may have to put a little on it tonight incase the price shortens after a good run
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