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Results Update:
Liverpool Hurdle
19 points each way @ 11/2 (b365) Smad Place (SP 5/1) UR
10 points @ 4/1 (b365 betting without Big Bucks) Poungach
-48
Smad Place is usually an exceptional jumper, including in this race until hitting the top bar. Poungach ran as though needing his first run for some time. Big Buck’s didn’t have much to beat in the end, but great to see him break the consecutive wins record. Best staying hurdler I’ve seen.2:30 Aintree
26 points @ 10/1 (L) Hinterland (SP 7/1) Fell
-26
Nice to see my Triumph ante-post bet Grumeti show his form this time, not when I had my money on him though. Hinterland was going well enough when coming down. Too far out to know how he’d have fared.Betfair Bowl
35 points @ 4/1 (VC) Riverside Theatre (SP 7/2) PU
-35
Not a race I’m especially proud of. Thought Riverside didn’t like being crowded at Cheltenham, but even worse here; never going. Possible the hard race last time unsettled him. Usually so consistent and genuine, hopefully will be back as good as ever next year. Had the winner Follow The Plan down as a true 200/1 shot (oops).All in all, not a good start to Aintree financially, but can’t help smiling with Big Buck’s successful.
Days Stakes 109, Days Return 0, Days Deficit
2:30 Aintree
51 points @ 15/8 (FD)Silviniaco Conti
(SP 7/4)
1st
Return 146.63 points
(51)+95.63
Silviniaco Conti franked the form of Grands Crus’ Boxing Day form, though it’s questionable if any other horse ran to form. Champion Court (2nd) better over shorter and Join Together (3rd) never seeming happy.
3:05 Aintree
30 points @ 7/1 (b365) Poquelin (SP 5/1)
15 points @ 11/1 (b365) Wishful Thinking (SP 15/2)2nd
18 points @ 5/2 (SJ) Alberta’s Run (SP 11/4)
3rd
-63
I got it wrong again! Thought Finian’s Rainbow wouldn’t stay 2m4f. Not only wrong, but it looks as if 3 miles around a flat track will be within his capabilities. Nice to see Wishful Thinking back to form now Philip Hobbs is having more winners. Alberta’s possibly unsuited by overnight watering, well beaten. Poquelin had ran well in the Old Roan here. Ran as though something wasn’t right, had also broke a blood vessel going to the start at Cheltenham.Topham Chase
20 points @ 14/1 (L) Little Josh (SP 6/1)
20 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Triangular (SP 7/1)
13 points @ 19/1 (betfair) Fabalu (SP 16/1)
9 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Montoya’s Son (SP 33/1)
4 points @ 19/1 (betfair) Chance Du Roy (SP 16/1)2nd
4 points @ 16/1 (b365) Aimigale SP 12/1)
4th
-70
All bets shortened up, particularly the two main bets. Little Josh is a bold jumper and took a few liberties out in front. Nothing left by the end. Not sure he stays this far and I’d like to see him tried at 2 miles. Had Fabalu down as an Aintree type, but probably needs further and never going the pace. Triangular hated it. Montoya’s son ran like a 33/1 shot. Saver bets did best, Chance De Roi another Hobbs horse to do well at the festival. Ran out of it by Aintree specialist Always Waining. Aimigale plugged on for 4th4:15 Aintree
57 points @ 13/8 Fingal Bay (SP 13/8)2nd
16 points @ 17/1 Gulinbursti (SP 8/1)
3 points @ 28/1 (betfair) Tap Night (20/1)
-76
Fingal Bay shouldn’t really have been my main bet, after an injury. Must still be on any short list of novice chasers for next season. Beaten by another one I backed for the Albert Bartlett, Lovecen. Gullinbursti halved in price and travelled well (as usual) for a long way before finding nothing, may be a drop back in trip would bring about improvement. Tap Night ran well enough, just not good enough.Days Stakes 260, Days Return 146.63, Days Deficit
2:50 Aintree
58 points @ 11/4 (b365) Rock On Ruby (SP 5/2)3rd
-58
Rock On Ruby constantly had ears pricked and possibly unsuited by having to make his own running. Below Champion Hurdle form. Oscar Whiskey reproduced the exact result of 2011, beating Thousand Words by a diminishing neck. None too pleased with connections of the winner, reported immediately after the World Hurdle to be “lame”, yet his owner said afterwards the horse was fine after Cheltenham and was just spared a hard race. Had I known, probably would’ve backed him at Aintree myself!Grand National
16 points @ 33/1 (L) Niche Market (DNR)
13 points @ 33/1 (WH) Cappa Bleu (SP 16/1)4th
20 points @ 10/1 (L) Prince De Beauchene (DNR)
20 points @ 18/1 (VC enhanced win odds) Ballabriggs (SP 12/1) 6th
11 points @ 25/1 (VC enhanced win odds) Becauseicouldntsee (SP 25/1)
11 points @ 25/1 (WH) Organisedconfusion (SP 20/1)
15 points @ 28/1 (VC enhanced winn only) Giles Cross (SP 20/1)
5 points @ 16/1 (SJ enhanced win only) Giles Cross
3 points @ 40/1 (WH) Le Beau Bai (DNR)
3 points @ 50/1 (WH) Black Apalachi (SP 25/1)
3 points @ 40/1 (WH) According To Pete (SP 28/1)
4 points @ 22/1 (WH) Sunnyhillboy (SP 16/1)2nd
2 points @ 249/1 (betfair) Midnight Haze (80/1)
4 points @ 35/1 (betfair) Always Right (SP 25/1)
3 points @ 40/1 (b365) Planet Of Sound (SP 33/1)
9 points @ 28/1 (betfair) Organisedconfusion
8 points @ 35/1 (SJ enhanced win only)Neptune Collonges
(SP 33/1)
1st
Return 288 points
2 points @ 33/1 (VC)Neptunes Collonges
1st
Return 68 points
2 points @ 54/1 (betfair)Neptune Collonges
1st
Return 110 points
10 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair)Neptune Collonges
to be placed
1st
Return 96 points
(164)+398
Deaths of Synchronised and According to Pete took the gloss off having backed the National winner @ 54/1 (I know, I know, the 54/1 was only a small part of the over all 4 bets on the horse, plus bets on 14 others, bet let me have my day).
Older horses sometimes need a longer trip as they get older to show their form, as so it proved with Neptune Collonges. Almost got up at a mile shorter, in the National Trial after looking well beaten over the last. Had an excellent strike rate on very soft, but his best ever performance was on Good, in Denman’s Gold Cup, just failing to catch Kauto Star for second.
Had sulked when getting away to a similarly poor start in the Hennessey. Usually races prominently and 5th last going over the first. But he’s a good jumper and different fences kept him interested. Jacob didn’t panic and although pushed along to go the pace early, made ground up steadily once the early charge had settled. In the first half after the first circuit and with the leaders from second Beechers. Thought as they jumped the last fence, he’s the stoutest stayer of those still in with a chance and should go close. It was too xxxxxxx close! Not usually one to shout at the TV, but Jacob was getting both barrels after the line. “Should’ve got after him sooner”! Convinced he’d lost until the freeze frame came up. Then an agonising wait. Always thought what a great jockey that Darryl was.
Feel for those who backed Sunnyhillboy, possibly asked for his effort too soon, 2m4f speed. Seemed to get unbalanced after the elbow too. However McLernon deserves great credit for getting him in that position in the first place. Not always the best of jumpers, yet didn’t notice one mistake going around the outside.
What a great story Seabass would’ve been, Katie Walsh looked poised to make it a National Velvet over the last. Possibly outstayed, however, Seabass did make a few errors and may be they told. Still improving. Who knows? 2013 perhaps?
Cappa Bleu got a poor ride, seemingly ridden to get a place when victory could’ve been his. Still going well when the leaders were clear and made up a terrific amount on the run-in.
In Compliance amazed me, thought he was on the downgrade and couldn’t see him staying either.
Ballabriggs this time held up in mid-div, had a chance at the last, but ultimately couldn’t give the weight away.
Hello Bud did his usual thing of going well until the turn, finding little and going backwards on the flat. Still deserves credit for finishing 7th at the age of 14.
Of the others: Shakalakaboomboom didn’t stay. Planet of Sound likewise, although he jumped boldly, possibly too exuberant for his own good out in front. Junior (along with today’s performance) seems to have gone back to his sour days. Always Right, On His Own and Organisedconfusion might be ones for another year. There was more to Giles Cross’ poor showing than just ground. Couldn’t lead and over-jumped at the first, and never leaping with his usual gusto. Possibly needs to be at the head of affairs, almost refusing at Canal Turn and pulled up soon after.Days Stakes 222, Days Return 562, Days Profit
+340 points
Scottish National
37 points @ 6/1 (VC) Harry The Viking (SP 6/1)
17 points @ 14/1 (C) Galaxy Rock (SP 9/1)
27 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair)Merigo
(SP 15/2)
1st
Return 237.6 points
4 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Fruity O’Rooney (SP 16/1) 5th
7 points @ 9/1 (b365) Portrait King (SP 10/1)
(92)
+145.6
Yet again, you needed to race prominently in the Scottish National. Merigo somehow let in off a lower mark than last year, thankfully just got up in the last strides to beat the improved Auroras Encore. King Fontaine surprised me by showing so much stamina in third. Ballyfitz did his usual plod around, hitting a few along the way. Fruity O’Rooney ran his usual genuine race but couldn’t dominate, taken on by Garleton. Harry The Viking was never going, he’s better than this and could win a good staying handicap next season. Galaxy Rock travelled well for a long way, one of the last off the bridle, weakened quickly. Should be suited by a test of stamina but has looked quirky. Portrait King could never get in to it from off the pace.Days Stakes 92, Days Return 237.6, Days Profit
+145.6 points
This Post Stakes 683, Return 946.23, This Post Profit
+263.23 points
Total Stakes 7965, Total Return 9651.85,
Total Profit +1686.85 points
21.18%
Profit on stakes
Value Is EverythingMagnanimity
looks the only out and out stayer in this field. Goes well on heavy. Still in with a chance before a bad mistake ended his chance in Irish National. On form shouldn’t be good enough, but can’t see many here showing their best. Good each way bet at massive prices. Missed the 33/1, but 25/1 (SJ) is too good to ignore.
Value Is Everything5:30 Punchestown
10 points each way @ 25/1 (SJ) Magnanimity8 points @ 25/1 (win)(betfair) Magnanimity
Value Is EverythingWell at least we now know that 1 Point equals 1/2p Ginge!
I dont know whether to congratulate you for finding this years Grand National winner by using your skill and judgement or to slate you for ‘profitng’ from backing half the bloody field!
At the end of the day,you consistently make a profit from ‘playing with numbers’I cant call it Gambling as in my opinion thats about backing your judgement,narrowing a field of runners down to just a couple and taking a chance! Your philosophy is defineately ‘Risk Management’ and you limit your losses well.I’d be interested to know if you really are a passionate follower of horses or just a number cruncher who doesn’t really care who wins so long as you profit from the race! Good judges that we are our Similaritys to Horseracing ends there,we are at different ends of the philosophy scale! Keep up the good work though!
5:30 Punchestown (think it’s later now)
64 points @ 11/4 (b365) Voler La VadetteValue Is EverythingWell at least we now know that 1 Point equals 1/2p Ginge!
I dont know whether to congratulate you for finding this years Grand National winner by using your skill and judgement or to slate you for ‘profitng’ from backing half the bloody field!
At the end of the day,you consistently make a profit from ‘playing with numbers’I cant call it Gambling as in my opinion thats about backing your judgement,narrowing a field of runners down to just a couple and taking a chance! Your philosophy is defineately ‘Risk Management’ and you limit your losses well.All that I’ll say is: I bet more than £1 per point Gord.
Of course, some people use pounds instead of points in their threads, but anyone can put a couple of noughts on the end of their actual stakes.You’re right Gord, I am not a "gambler", I’m an "investor". Not every bet is to win the same amount. Don’t think you understand the way I bet. Stakes are based on two things, chance of winning and how much value is in the bet.
Main bets: My estimation of their chance minus the bookmakers price, then X that figure by 5 (gone up recently from 4) and add my estimation of the horse’s chance.
So one I feel is a fair 3/1 shot (
chance) who is available @ 4/1 (
20%
) is 25 – 20 = 5, x 5 = 25 +
= 50 points @ 4/1. Returning 250 points,
200 points profit.
The stakes of the main bet/s don’t change, they’re not effected by other bets in the same race. There may well be another one or two other horses in the race which I consider equally/near equally good value, who also get the same treatment as above. So if there’s also something I believe is a 10% (fair 9/1 chance) available @ 14/1 (6.7%) gets 26 points @ 14/1 (10 – 6.7 = 3.3 X 5 = 16.6 + 10 = 26.5). Returning 390 for a
profit of
364 Minus any other wagers in the race.
If there are other horses I consider value (but not quite as good value as the main bets) I may have three quarter or half a bet (with three quarter or half stakes). Or saver bets, bets to get back what I’d lose on the rest. Or, if I have already got plenty of money invested in the race, they might be partial savers, to get most of my money back that I lose on the rest.
Mr
Just because I had the winner of the National and you didn’t Gord…
Seriously, I know I went OTT. Problem with the Grand National this year was I had 3 antepost bets which did not run, and having originally done antepost bets for good ground, was then suckered in to believing it was going to be soft, which made a few others "value", before reverting once again to good (again changing what was "value"). So I had several Grand National wagers that wish I hadn’t come the off.Obviously betting the way I did in the National this year isn’t ideal. To have saver bets to get back what you lose on other saver bets, wrong going bets and non-runners – defeats the object and isn’t profitable in the long run. As my day of race advice showed, really should have backed 8 horses. So please don’t judge me on the number of horses backed in the National (15), it was excessive for the reasons explained. But at least I came up with the winner as a "Main bet".
Value Is EverythingI’d be interested to know if you really are a passionate follower of horses or just a number cruncher who doesn’t really care who wins so long as you profit from the race! Good judges that we are our Similaritys to Horseracing ends there,we are at different ends of the philosophy scale! Keep up the good work though!
Am sure there’s just as much studying form (if not more) in my working out as there is in your studying Gord. The "number crunching" you talk of comes naturally and is only done at the end of the process.
I keep my "gambling" and "following" seperate Gord. Interested in "Racing" before I was ever a "gambler/investor". Mother tells me I wanted to be a jockey when knee high to a New Forest pony. Used to watch the ITV 7 as a kid without any interest in betting, just loved the horses.
Can still shout home a favourite horse (eg Big Buck’s) even if I’ve backed the second home.
Am a member of the West Berkshire Racing Club. Not owners, just a group who love "racing", go to talks/evening events by racing people (at Newbury Racecourse) and like visiting stables and studs. £12 to join + £2 per event, £5 per visit. There are similar clubs all over the country Gord, highly recommend them.
Youdon’t
get enough knowledge to be in a team taking on the great, good and not so good racing "personalities and professionals" in a quiz —
without
being a "passionate follower" of the Sport Of Kings. It’s a "racing" quiz, not a "betting" quiz.
Your way of gambling is too risky for me Gord. Too much risk and long losing runs for me to keep my confidence. As always, if it works for the individual punter, don’t fix it.
Value Is EverythingThe above mare, Voler La Vadette I consider a fair 2/1 chance (33%). 11/4 offered represents 26.7%. So 33 – 26.7 = 6.3 X 5 = 31.5 + 33 = 64.5. Therefore the bet is 64 points @ 11/4 Voler La Vadette, even though I believe Quevega has a better chance of winning.
If it were good ground and/or a guaranteed early pace I’d have Voler even shorter. Can pull hard early if they go slow. Hopefully they won’t go a very strong pace either, as that will be against both favourites (severe test of stamina). In those circumstances Berties Dream would be suited, even though on form has little chance with the big two.
There’s no doubt Voler has improved at 3m since she last met Quevega and worth taking a chance @ 11/4 despite those concerns.So as the above write up suggests, unlike what some tipsters might have you believe, nobody knows for certain who is going to win any race, it’s just a matter of if the
price
available makes any horse worth the bet/risk.
Value Is Everything5:30 Punchestown
25 points @ 15/2 (WH) Zaidpour
30 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Thousand StarsValue Is Everything5:30 Punchestown
25 points @ 15/2 (WH) Zaidpour
30 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Thousand StarsIf Thousand Stars runs to form then Hurricane Fly must run better than he did at Cheltenham to win. Their other stable companion Zaidpour was improving prior to Cheltenham and is much better suited by this ground. May also get his own way up front. There is a question mark about the form of some wins (front running off a slow pace), but at 15/2 worth a bet. Combined price of 11/4 seems very reasonable. Hurricane Fly has a far better chance than my selections and deserves to be odds-on. But not (imo) that short (4/11).
Value Is Everything4:55 Punchestown
30 points @ 6/1 (b365) Lucky William
27 points @ 6.8/1 (betfair) KumbeshwarNot convinced Menorah will be at home on heavy ground and First Lieutenant hasn’t looked like a 2 miler.
Value Is EverythingMagnanimity
looks the only out and out stayer in this field. Goes well on heavy. Still in with a chance before a bad mistake ended his chance in Irish National. On form shouldn’t be good enough, but can’t see many here showing their best. Good each way bet at massive prices. Missed the 33/1, but 25/1 (SJ) is too good to ignore.
The bet earlier in the week was a "non-runner".
So:
3:15 Punchestown
10 points each way @ 25/1 (L) MagnanimityValue Is Everything3:10 Sandown
17 points @ 39/1 (betfair) Knighton CombeShould be half those odds
Value Is Everything3:10 Sandown
17 points @ 39/1 (betfair) Knighton CombeShould be half those odds
32 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Le Beau Bai
18 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Major MalarkyValue Is Everything
Just because I had the winner of the National and you didn’t Gord… 
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