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3:15 Punchestown
10 points each way @ 25/1 (L) Magnanimity25 points @ 17/2 (Sporting) Follow The Plan
Had hoped to do a place only bet on Magnanimity too, but the price isn’t as good so another:
2 points each way @ 20/1 (VC) Magnanimity
Value Is EverythingEDIT (this post replaces a summary of a race (no bets):
RESULTS UPDATE for conclusion of the 2011/2012 JUMPS SEASON:
Magnanimity race postponed (stakes returned)
5:30 Punchestown
64 points @ 11/4 (b365) Voler La Vadette (SP 11/4) 2nd
-64Days Deficit -64
4:55 Punchestown
30 points @ 6/1 (b365) Lucky William (SP 4/1) 1st Return 210 points
27 points @ 6.8/1 (betfair) Kumbeshwar (SP 6/1)
(57)
+1535:30 Punchestown
25 points @ 15/2 (WH) Zaidpour (SP 9/2) 2nd
30 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Thousand Stars (SP 7/1) 3rd
-55Days Stakes 112, Return 210, Profit +98 points
2:35 Sandown
52 points @ 11/4 (FD) Wishful Thinking (SP 7/2)
-523:15 Punchestown
10 points each way @ 25/1 (L) Magnanimity (SP 16/1)
25 points @ 17/2 (Sporting) Follow The Plan (SP 7/1) 2nd
2 points each way @ 20/1 (VC) Magnanimity
-493:10 Sandown
17 points @ 39/1 (betfair) Knighton Combe (SP 25/1)
32 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Le Beau Bai (SP 6/1)
18 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Major Malarky (SP 15/2)
-67Days Stakes 168, Days Deficit -168 points
This Post Stakes 344, Return 210, Deficit -134 points
2011/2012 Season Total Stakes 8309, Total Return 9861.85,
Total 2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
18.68% Profit on stakesValue Is EverythingGrand National
16 points @ 33/1 (L) Niche Market (DNR)
13 points @ 33/1 (WH) Cappa Bleu (SP 16/1)4th
20 points @ 10/1 (L) Prince De Beauchene (DNR)
20 points @ 18/1 (VC enhanced win odds) Ballabriggs (SP 12/1) 6th
11 points @ 25/1 (VC enhanced win odds) Becauseicouldntsee (SP 25/1)
11 points @ 25/1 (WH) Organisedconfusion (SP 20/1)
15 points @ 28/1 (VC enhanced winn only) Giles Cross (SP 20/1)
5 points @ 16/1 (SJ enhanced win only) Giles Cross
3 points @ 40/1 (WH) Le Beau Bai (DNR)
3 points @ 50/1 (WH) Black Apalachi (SP 25/1)
3 points @ 40/1 (WH) According To Pete (SP 28/1)
4 points @ 22/1 (WH) Sunnyhillboy (SP 16/1)2nd
2 points @ 249/1 (betfair) Midnight Haze (80/1)
4 points @ 35/1 (betfair) Always Right (SP 25/1)
3 points @ 40/1 (b365) Planet Of Sound (SP 33/1)
9 points @ 28/1 (betfair) Organisedconfusion
8 points @ 35/1 (SJ enhanced win only)Neptune Collonges
(SP 33/1)
1st
Return 288 points
2 points @ 33/1 (VC)Neptunes Collonges
1st
Return 68 points
2 points @ 54/1 (betfair)Neptune Collonges
1st
Return 110 points
10 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair)Neptune Collonges
to be placed
1st
Return 96 points
(164)Apologies for miscalculating just how many wagers you did have but I still laugh out loud when I read that lot even now! I guess you lack confidence in your own judgement!
My first bet in the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup.
31 points @ 8/1 (FD) Long Run* (min 13/2)
Value Is Everything"Gingertipster":32wu8e3c wrote:
4)
106-P422
NEPTUNE COLLONGES
Dom Alco – Castille Collonges (El Badr)
11-11-06
John Hales / Paul Nicholls /
Daryl Jacob
(157-162)
Champion trainer Paul Nicholls relies on this one time top class grey (almost white) to break his Grand National duck. Beaten just 7 lengths, 3rd in Denman’s Gold Cup (3m2½f) on good ground. Not as good nowadays but handicap mark reflects that. Best effort for some time upped to 3m4f on heavy latest start. Winner of 6 of 8 races on that surface. Found plenty and only went down by a neck trying to give 21 lbs (if taking in to account Harry Derham’s 7 lb claim) to Giles Cross. Now 2 lbs better off with that rival and officially 5 lbs well-in. Very genuine in a finish but has sulked if unable to get a prominent position. Usually jumps well despite his size. A still longer distance could bring Neptune Collonges closer to his best. Outsider with a chance.Verdict:
Neptune Collonges has been ignored in the betting, probably because he’s not as good these days. But isn’t far off, just lost some of the speed. Proved well suited by the test of stamina last time and ground shouldn’t be a problem either. Almost beat Kauto Star for 2nd in Denman’s Gold Cup on similar to today’s current going. And has an exceptional strike rate in softer conditions if the rains do come.Neptune Collonges and Organisedconfusion look the best bets.
1) Neptune Collonges
2) Organisedconfusion
3) Always Right
4) Cappa Bleu
5) Midnight Haze
6) Black Apalachi
7) Ballabriggs
8( Becauseicouldntsee
Those at bigger prices don’t need as big a margin for error.Options are:
Backing Neptune Collonges win only.
Backing Neptune Collonges each way.
Backing Neptune Collonges and Organisedconfusion win only.
Backing Neptune Collonges and Organisedconfusion each way.At 27/1 and 54/1 Organisedconfusion and Neptune Collonges would be a combined price of around 18/1.
Backing all 8 runners would be around 3/1 combined price.
However, I’d recommend splitting your total stake in to 100 and having: (Isn’t to be counted in my thread as already backed antepost).20% of stakes @ 54/1 Neptune Collonges +1000 points
17% points @ 28/1 Organisedconfusion +376
11% points @ 49/1 Always Right +450
7% points @ 54/1 Black Apalachi +285
6% points @ 169/1 Midnight Haze +920
14% points @ 19/1 Cappa Bleu +180
14% points @ 15/1 Ballabriggs +124
11% points @ 21/1 Becauseicouldntsee +142It is strange Gord, how you never point out that my advice on Grand National day to anyone
wanting to back just one horse
– was to back
Neptune Collonges
. A horse available @ over 50/1.
… And even if they wanted to have more than one horse – to put the biggest amount (20% of stakes) onNeptune Collonges
.
You Gord – advised (I believe) 4 horses on Grand National day, presumably all each way? So you had four win bets and four savers (place bets) running, 8 bets in total. Very much like my 8 bet advice. But you didn’t come up with the winner.
Value Is EverythingKing George VI Chase
30 points @ 8/1 (WH) Grands CrusBookmaker prices are all over the place. One 7/2, one 9/2 and 5/1. William Hill out on their own on 8’s. Grands Crus is much better than he showed at Cheltenham. Impressive at the Boxing Day meeting this season. At 8/1 it’s worth taking a chance he can return to his best by then.
Saver:
8 points @ 4/1 (Boyle) Long Run (min 7/2)Value Is EverythingPaddy Power Gold Cup
33 points @ 9/2 (PP) Grands Crus* (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingPaddy Power Gold Cup
33 points @ 9/2 (PP) Grands Crus* (min 4/1)Not yet put the whole amount on, as not a confirmed runner. However, there’s plenty of money for him today and if Long Run is not injured I can not see the Pipe horse going to Haydock. Stable has an excellent record targeting this meeting. Grands Crus looked potentially top class early on in his novice year and will be well handicapped on hurdles form. Jumps fences so well that it’s difficult not to see him as at least as good a chaser. Travels well at 3 miles so could be even better at this shorter trip and goes very well fresh.
Value Is EverythingPaddy Power Gold Cup
33 points @ 9/2 (PP) Grands Crus* (min 4/1)xxx it. Take a chance and make it a full bet.
A further:
14 points @ 9/2 (PP) Grands Crus* (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingKing George VI Chase
30 points @ 8/1 (WH) Grands CrusBookmaker prices are all over the place. One 7/2, one 9/2 and 5/1. William Hill out on their own on 8’s. Grands Crus is much better than he showed at Cheltenham. Impressive at the Boxing Day meeting this season. At 8/1 it’s worth taking a chance he can return to his best by then.
Saver:
8 points @ 4/1 (Boyle) Long Run (min 7/2)Another saver:
3 points @ 14/1 (VC) Silviniaco Conti (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingCharlie Hall Chase
30 points @ 9/2 (WH) Time For Rupert* (min 9/2)Value Is EverythingCharlie Hall Chase
30 points @ 9/2 (WH) Time For Rupert* (min 9/2)Another:
2 points @ 9/2 (T) Time For Rupert* (min 9/2)
24 points @ 11/2 (B365) Planet Of Sound (min 11/2)Value Is Everything2:25 Down Royal
23 points @ 15/2 (WH) First Liutenent* (min 13/2)Value Is Everything2:25 Down Royal
23 points @ 15/2 (WH) First Liutenent* (min 13/2)37 points @ 9/2 (B365) Realt Dubh* (min 4/1)
Value Is Everything
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