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I tipped Study Of Man earlier in the thread and I really felt he would have tanked Chilean that day but clearly he was left well short of full fitness that day. As is always the case, when you are not on next time they scamper away.
I had a favourable write up on Study Of Man in last season’s threads and although he was entered in the Epsom Derby I had my doubts they would run him there. After the first run this year Pascal Bary said they would not run him at Epsom and in his stable tour he was generally downbeat about this year’s bunch of 3YO’s
After Study Of Man’s second run of the season Pascal Bary seemed more upbeat and stated they would reflect on whether to go to Epsom or for the Jockey Club on home turf. I feel they have a tough nut to face in Saxon Warrior, his half brother. I reckon that he may stay in France. Study Of Man quickened nicely to take control in the trial and he has a nice flowing action that should be best on a sound surface.
You can back Study Of Man at 10/1 for the French Derby, where SkyBet only go 4/1 and I think the 10/1 for that race is something I will consider after watching the trial race a few more times. Here is the video for those who missed it:-
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3196/
The Racing Post seemed to want to hype Study Of Man both before and after yesterday’s race but you can still get 50/1 for him to win at Epsom, so few seem interested about his prospects of coming over the Channel.
As I said on another thread, I backed Kew Gardens at 6/1 for the Lingfield Derby Trial. He is said to be the only one of the O’Brien crop going to stand his ground. I am surprised the odds for the race have not changed but when the decs come out tomorrow and they see that Nelson and Delano Roosevelt are not in the field, Paddy Power will finally be forced to react. My Nephew will have been in on my behalf again today. I really feel the Zetland winner is the one to beat and he has form tied with Saxon Warrior that shows he’s no mug.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Kew Gardens best priced 3-1 now Steve. Good call that
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Thanks Joni. If Nelson and Delano Roosevelt are not in the declarations today, I expect Kew Gardens to go shorter still.
I really feel Paddy Power stuck their neck out at 6/1 Kew Gardens. I just hope he lines up and doesn’t make a fool of me. I just wanted to share what I thought was a good value bet.
In the Prix Diane I am thinking about With You at 9/1 but I may wait until the Prix Alary to see how she looks going into that one and nick a price before the off.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Both French Guineas’ take place on Sunday and I have already backed Wootton at 13/2 for the 2000 Guineas there. Olmedo has to be feared as the big danger, even if Dice Roll was an easy winner last time.
The fillies race is a tougher puzzle. I mentioned Polydream, Musis Amica and Wind Chimes on the French threads last season but was then disappointed when Wild Illusion turned Polydream over in the Boussac. Wild Illusion ran quite well in the Newmarket Guineas but one or two things put me off Polydream here.
Polydream has not run yet this season and Freddie Head has reported that some of his team have been slow to come to hand, With You in particular. I just wonder if she can concede fitness in a tight looking affair.
Musis Amica was quite impressive last time and I did think about her for this not long after her winning reappearance. She is too short for me now and her win was on heavy ground. It is currently reported to be Good to soft at ParisLongchamp.
Barkaa looks way short for me. Her form looked nothing special until her last start when she won easily but on heavy ground. So often heavy ground provides misleading form and at 4/1 she is an easy and confident lay for me in a much tougher looking race.
I have gone for some value and given Wind Chimes the chance to bounce back. Once considered for Newmarket, she went off favourite for the race won by Musis Amica but never looked like scoring. However, she may not have been 100% fit and the ground was very testing for a seasonal debut. I expect her to run much better here and I would rather play small stakes at 14/1, than stick more on at 7/2.
French 1000 Guineas Wind Chimes 14/1.
Nominal 1-2-3
1. Wind Chimes
2. Polydream
3. Musis AmicaLay
Barkaa 4/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Derrinstown Trial:-
I have a feeling Delano Roosevelt may just enjoy the ground most of O’Briens runners. I can’t have The Pentagon at odds on and 5/1 for Delano seems worth a bet.
Delano Roosevelt 5/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yet another second place as an outsider wins it
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Olmedo given a 118 Timeform rating for his classic win, although Simon Rowlands gave him a sectional rating of 121.
Steve just started 2yo summary thread but in trends and notebooks forum it is any early views
Zarkamiya was odds-on favourite for a race which was supposed to be a relatively straightforward stepping stone to the Prix Diane.
However, the Alain Royer-Dupre trained daughter of Frankel was bitterly disappointing in finishing fourth to a 28/1 outsider who was making her debut.
That would seem to kill off any notion of tackling Group 1 company anytime soon and you would imagine it will be a sights lowered move next time.
It just shows that dream breeding just doesn’t help much of the time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Luminate runs at Saint-Cloud on Monday, in the Group 3 Prix Cleopatre.
She made a winning return to action but had to work quite hard to reel in Homerique on that occasion but I reckon the Francis Graffard filly might be decent herself and she was Epsom Oaks entered at one stage despite looking on pedigree that the trip would prove beyond her.
Luminate has her field pretty much held on ratings and is therefore unlikely to offer any betting opportunity despite conceding 3 lbs to the others. The Head stable haven’t been in great form though, with Polydream a particular disappointment when stone last in the French 1000 Guineas.
A best priced 8/1 for the Prix Diane, Luminate will be looking to cement her claims for that race with a smooth win, which, all being well, she should really achieve against the field assembled against her tomorrow.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Luminate couldn’t get the job done, going down by a short neck to Castellar, with the 3rd 3/4 of a length away.
Again looking a bit slow today, Luminate was disappointing in this company. The winner was rated 96 on RPR coming in and the filly who beat her last time, Shutka, was last behind Efaadah in a listed race next time out. It didn’t look a good Group 3 coming in and Luminate was pushed out to 12/1 for the Diane, a price that makes zero appeal to me.
I would be backing Wind Chimes for the Diane if I knew she was going there. I feel she would have won the French 1000 with a better ride and she came on a lot from her disappointing seasonal debut. At 8/1 she looks the potential value stepping up in trip. Despite Musus Amica finishing well in the Guineas, I didn’t like the way she had to be rowed along for much of that race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
TBF to the filly that was up there as a poor ride. They know she is not the quickest, but is ridden for a turn of foot and went up more backsides than Quentin Crisp. I wouldn’t give up on her just yet (agreed a bit to prove now) if ridden more aggressively as she seems to have bundles of stamina
Tons of poor rides in France. The jockeys seem to think that they are sat on Zarkava all the time and can quicken from the back off no pace at the front.
Stablemate With You gets the chance to make her case in the Prix Saint-Alary on Sunday. Just five runners but Guineas runner up Laurens is one of them and if With You can beat her on seasonal debut she will be a serious filly.
With You seemed as good a filly as I saw in France last season and had there been betting for the Prix Diane over the winter I would probably have stuck a few quid on her. With the news that she was/is a bit behind the others, confidence is dented somewhat. Her Group 3 win hasn’t worked out well at all and although she won it pretty cosily it would have been nice to see something giving it a better look.
Laurens will be a warm favourite and hard to oppose on her Guineas form.
Elsewhere, Danon Premium is a Deep Impact colt who is 3/3 in his career and he lines up for the Japanese Derby as 11/8 favourite. I don’t know much about the opposition but he has impressed me in his races and obviously he could set up a potential double for the sire.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Love this thread, Big fan of With You but she’ll need to be spot on to beat Laurens on her return.
Generally 4/6 Fav for Laurens and 7/2 With You.
I can’t fathom the lack of odds on French Racing. They have odds for almost every other country in the world but France remains a mystery until the last minutes. They even had odds for a race in India the other day, so why not France?
Danon Premium was only 6th in the Japan Derby but having said that he was only beaten 1 length in total, with half a length covering 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th places. The biggest disappointment was that Danon Premium had beaten the winner, Wagnerian, back in March and that horse was only 7th when favourite the next time he ran.
Since Wagnerian is also by Deep Impact, the Japan/Epsom Derby double for the sire is still on.
Regular French winner Vazirabad is out again today and his fans will probably be happy with the odds of 11/10. Later on the card, Recoletos is about Evens but I’d rather be with Taareef at 11/4.
In the earlier race the UK runners Lord And Master and Ispolini were 6th and 4th respectively despite leading the betting for the Group 3 Prix De Lys. They had run behind Rostropovich and Young Rascal respectively last time out. Ispolini came into today’s race top rated by The Racing Post, with a theoretical 10 lbs in hand of ultimate winner Neufbosc, who was 96 rated after 4 career starts.
Not great boosts for Rostropovich and Young Rascal and I doubt Olmedo connections will be sweating on Rostropovich coming for the French Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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