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time to put a line through Waldgeist? As you pointed out pre race steve he was disappointing by the end of last season,even though some might say he needs to go back to 12, I thought he was really average yesterday.
I’ll just stick my other picks in here to save hassle.
In the 5.30 at Dundalk I felt the O’Brien filly Hence was short enough. She’s had four goes without winning and there are a couple of potential improvers in opposition.
Wishing Star was 3rd on her only start and could easily progress but she stayed on quite dourly first time up and looked to me that a mile may suit better.
I went with Elegant Drama from the Ger Lyons stable. She was second on her only start but was the opposite of Wishing Star, in that she came there looking to be travelling best but weakened slightly and had to settle for runner up spot. Odds-on that day this daughter of Dandy Man looked like she would do better for the experience. The stable are in the winners this past fortnight and she has some potential at decent odds of 3/1.
5.30 Dundalk Elegant Drama 3/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Clearly the step up from 5F to 7F has helped Could It Be Love put in a hugely better performance. Different Gravy indeed.
Elegant Drama was a little keen but no match for the winner and weakened late to lose second place. She looks worth a try at shorter to me.
The Even money favourite Hence, was very poor. She never looked like winning and backers knew their fate early enough.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What do you make of Olmedo, Steve? I really liked him on all of his runs last season, he looked to me as though he just needed a bit more experience in the two races he lost. Given how well JCR tends to do with his classic horses, I think he could be a bit of a star next year and will probably be an ante-post bet of mine for the Irish Champion Stakes once I can get a price. Do you think he’s likely to go down the 2000 Guineas route, or considering he wears the Almanzor colours do you think he’ll take that horse’s steadier route to the French Derby?
I heard that Olmedo was Rouget’s best 2YO last season, so I was surprised he went off bigger than 6/1 on his debut.
I was a bit surprised that he was beaten next time but I felt the jockey was a bit over-confident that day. That was a common occurrence last season and “our” jockeys seemed to catch the French pilots unawares from the front on several occasions.
The Lagardere performance was a bit more worrying for me. I felt he should have had a good chance against Happily but he was outdone more easily than I like to see. The bigger worry is that the Lagardere hasn’t panned out very well. Happily was abortive in the Breeders Cup. Masar has disappointed since and Woodmax was woeful the other day.
I don’t think the Rouget horses have fired as well since the 2016 season and it may be he just doesn’t have a strong squad this year.
Christophe Soumillon said after Stormy Antarctic’s win at Saint Cloud recently that:-
“When you look at the horses in training with the people for whom I work [the Aga Khan and Jean-Claude Rouget], none really shone last year in the way that gives you a lot of hope for the Classics.
That statement would seem to suggest he feels similarly.
Olmedo is entered in the Fontainebleau at ParisLongchamp on Sunday and he could clash with Wootton, who is among the 12 entries. O’Brien has SIX entered, Kenya, Murillo, Bond Street, Full Moon, Rostropovich and Sioux Nation. Andre Fabre has Mind Mapping entered and he is also owned by Godolphin, as Wootton is. Mind Mapping did win a soft ground Maiden at Saint-Cloud easily but the form looks weak and hasn’t been working out.
Hope the information is helpful. I’ll be hoping for Wootton myself and that the Godolphin curse doesn’t strike.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just six left in the Fontainebleau now. Olmedo and Wootton are still in but O’Brien only runs Rostropovich from his six entered.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Prix De La Grotte is full of interest, with the possible improver Wind Chimes up against the solid form fillies in Mission Impassible and Magical, who will be wearing blinkers for the first time.To be fair there are some really interesting unbeaten fillies also lining up
I’ve done Wind Chimes at 9/2 for the La Grotte. If she can’t win it, there’s no point going to Newmarket.
Magical’s form tailed off last year and she will probably need the race.
Wind Chimes will handle the ground and if she’s trained on I expect her to improve past all of them. She was never really pressed in either of her races last year.
2.50 ParisLongchamp Sunday Wind Chimes 9/2
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wootton just about makes all to hold Olmedo, pair clear. I would probably just favour the runner up in the rematch.
I thought Wootton was going to win the race tidily but in the end he scrambled home. I thought he did well to fend Olmedo off and I reckon Wootton simply tired in bad ground there today.
I’ll take a match bet that he’ll beat Olmedo if they meet again. That was Wootton’s first true race today, he was green first and second time out and still never really saw another horse. He’s also tended to be held up but went from the front today and was there to be shot at.
Betting for the French Guineas sees Wootton 7/2 and Olmedo 9/2 now. I’d backed Wootton at 13/2 so I am pleased enough with that today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wind Chimes was hopeless and can stay at home as far as Newmarket is concerned. Nice win from Musis Amica, who I feel sure I wrote something about last year but I am pretty vague on that one.
The Newmarket Guineas is shaping as pretty wide open now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Cheers for the post above, Steve.
I thought Olmedo ran a really nice race. Once again, though, I just felt he never wanted to go past Wootton. He may want slightly better ground, so I wouldn’t be giving up hope totally.
Alhadab shaped really well in the 15:25. Looks already like he needs further than 10.5 furlongs, or at the very least a stronger pace, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was supplemented for the Derby (he’s out of Camelot).
I was pretty impressed by both Wootton and Olmedo, i think as 3yo’s they will be 2 very high class ones. I would find it tricky on taking a side in the match bet, as both jockeys really treated this race as a prep and were not interested in getting stuck in too much.
Wootton looks to me a miler, whereas Olmedo i’d have thought could end up a 1m2-1m4 horse? He should improve for better ground as well.
Both potentially top notchers i think
Didn’t notice this thread as i don’t venture into the daily lays and play that often!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!King George QEII Ascot 28th July Cracksman 4/1
Said to be his summer target and reportedly worked well the other day. I expect him to win the Ganay well and be halved for the Ascot race. There is always a worry with 4YO fillies for me and Cracksman made big strides late last season. He had earlier looked an awkward mover but I don’t see his Irish Derby conqueror Capri getting near him this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
An early 2YO dart for me.
Coventry Stakes Royal Ascot Sergei Prokofiev 33/1
Sergei Prokofiev is a son of Scat Daddy and cost a whopping $1.1 million as a yearling. He made his debut at Dundalk over 5F and went off odds on. He ran a bit green and went down a short head after bumping across to the winner. He didn’t look fully wound up that day and I have watched the replay several times trying to work out how O’Brien’s horse didn’t win.
Sergei Prokofiev travelled into the race really well and was cruising all over Skitter Scatter, whose jockey was scrubbing pretty hard. Asked to go and win his race, Sergei Prokofiev looked clueless and then wandered over to join the leader, briefly bumping into him.
Looking at the 1st two in the race, they are like chalk and cheese, with Sergei Prokofiev a much more imposing colt who looks sure to come on a ton for this. They will not have been rushing him and I am sure they will be looking to win a maiden with him and potentially stepping him up to 6F for Royal Ascot. He earned a RPR of 85 and I am as sure as anyone reasonably could be that he will be capable of 100 on his next start and then a 110 at least on his third go.
That’s the theory, of course it is not guaranteed in any way, shape or form but I’ll be disappointed if he’s not group class this year and at 33/1 what’s to lose really for some early fun.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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