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Is anyone else thinking that Tchico Polos will win this with ease (although it does depend on how well Long Run takes to UK fences)? Pocket Aces as an outsider must be considered surely?
Having watched a lot of Long Run’s races before the news came out that he would be transferring to Henderson I have to say he is a very classy individual.
On ratings alone (and in my opinion) he is quite a way ahead of a lot of these. The Feltham is possibly the key trial to the RSA Chase this March – if Long Run is a star in the making (like I really hope he is) then he will blitz this field and take all the beating in March. If he’s not a star then he will find it very hard here against improving types.
It’s interesting that Ogee turns up here. I strongly rate Ogee in decent company but think Long Run may be a class above and, at the forecast prices, surely it’s worth taking a chance on the import.
5pt Long Run @ 2.42
1pt R-FC Ogee / Long Run
1pt Long Run @ 14/1 (RSA Chase)Having backed Long Run to small saver stakes for the RSA,11/8 does not appeal.I thought Minella Theatre ran a better race than his 4th place suggested against the fast improving and very smart Weird Al.I have backed him at 13 on the machine!
I’d be looking at perhaps backing Tchico Polos at around 4/1. Obviously it’s a step up in trip, but he goes well and is tenacious enough to stick to the task. Long Run might end up cantering home, but the ground is quicker than what he’d get at Auteil, and the fences are a bit bigger. He’s still 4, and always encounters proper soft ground at best. I wouldn’t be suprised if he goes for the World Hurdle, if he makes it to Cheltenham. Then again, maybe there’s a better chance of Rab C Nesbit getting a knighthood. At the end of the day though, we don’t hear many comments so we have to guess.
On form and ratings Long Run is 15lbs+ clear of these and in receipt of 7lbs it’s a case of if his jumping is as good as it was at Auteuil then he’ll win doing hand stnads.
I’ve already had a rather sizable few bets on him at 16’s for March and made him a 4/6 shot for tomorrow so he’s a monster bet again at 11/8.
Fair enough Martin.Don’t you have a slight concern about the ground being a bit quick ?
He’s not run on it but he’s not had a chance tbh – the ground is generally at least "very soft" officially at Auteuil but it will ride dead tomorrow anyway due to the frost, recent weather etc. so I wouldn’t be overly concerned about it.
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There is no way on this earth Long Run is 15lb better than this field. His only Grade 1 victory over hurdles saw him beat Buck’s Boum and Kalin Des Cotieres, who are average to say the least, and the one (unconvincing) guide we have to his achievement over fences is Rubi Ball – a Grade 3 animal who has actually beaten him. On his UK debut, against older animals with rock solid form – I doubt Tchico Polos will stay the trip, but his run behind Somersby is by far the best piece of individual form on offer – he’s most definitely opposable.
Ogee is too big at 8/1 given his rate of progression, guaranteed stamina, unbeaten record over fences and tactical versatility.
MG – Rubi Ball is the clear best 4yo chaser in France outside of Long Run.
Rubi Ball’s form over fences reads: 11 starts, 6 wins, 3 seconds, one third, one fall.
Victories2 2m 3.5f 4yo Chases @ Pau
1 2m 1f 4yo Chase @ PauFerdinand Dufaure (Grade 1) 2m 4f 4yo Chase – beating G1 winner Long Run, Graded winners Miserable, Royal Francois and Marescou
Prix Duc D’Anjou (Grade 3) 2m 1.5f 4yo Chase
Prix Morgex (Grade 3) 2m 4.5f 4yo Chase
His only defeats have come to Long Run or in prep races when he was conceding weight and unlikely to be fully wound up.
It would be very wrong to take Long Run’s Prix Cambaceres win at face value – given how easily he won that day he’d be value for at least another 7 lengths.
As for the rating there are a number of people who have worked on translating French ratings into English ones (the best are Timeform though the RP have had a quick go at it and the BHA too when required) and he’s far clear of these on those ratings.
Long Run should be too good for this field. I trust Nicky Henderson has him primed and ready.
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Yeah, but that’s still a 5lb hike from his last run, just like it’s something like a 5lb jump for something like Tchicho Polos. That’s the way i see it. At the end of the day though yeah, some of us just look for something to oppose favourites. I’ve saw a re-run of Long runs race before, and he’s a very good horse. If he takes to todays ground the way he takes to swamps, then he should win. I just have a question mark over whether or not he handles the faster going, and bigger fences. If we actually had any trainer or jockey comments, then it might have saved some of us money if he wins.
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If Superb in French is the same as it is in English the Long Run must be pretty useful.
I just watched his last win and he won easily enough but didn’t look a brilliant leper to me so I can’t say I would be rushing to back him..
Rather see him jump round first and see how he handles our fences and can see better 11/8 shots to be backing today.
Could be a bit of value backing Ogee ew who has done really well so far.
I wouldn’t like to be a soldier in PN’s army. Tchico Polos looks like he might stay 3 miles but this a is a huge leap for the horse and you are taking it purely on trust backing him.
I like Tazbar. He loves the trip and the ground as in a very good horse when he’s right but has never reached the heights expected.
I’m giving Tazbar one more chance
No more than an exercise canter.
Excellent performance from a four year old. Jumping must improve but he has some engine.
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Wave bye-bye to the 14/1, Long Run is now 5/1 joint favourite with Punchestowns for the RSA Chase.
Still cant believe how easily he won that. Very very special
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