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I too don’t think Rhododendron will stay, just like her cousin Cracksman. Any horse with Pivotal in their pedigree will not stay 12f in my opinion. Coronet’s breeding flagged her up as an interesting contender for this to me weeks ago, but her reappearance was so disappointing I decided I would leave her alone. But now that it’s so close to the race and nobody bar Rhododendron has stamped any sort of authority on affairs, I think I might have to take the 8/1 on offer.
wasn’t sariska by pivotal? and she won the oaks. Surely you have to look at each horse individually.
I think pivotal in general gets horses who stay further than he does
in fact the oaks that sariska won was fought out by two horses who on paper shouldn’t have stayed, midday was by oasis dream and he also gets horses who stay further
just that for me more important than breeding is how they look and act on the track. Sariska always looked like a stayer, was closely related to stayers, and midday also looked like a middle distance type
I could be completely wrong but from what i’ve seen of rhododendron she strikes me as having a lot of speed, I don’t really look at her and think oaks filly
but O’brien has had these types of horses before and they end up staying anyway, I don’t know how he does it
Although I’m probably not alone as a punter at not being tempted by even money yokes and being keen to take her on
Eagle top and wings of desire were other horses by Pivotal who stayed 1 mile and a half, I don’t know about his dams and what they’ve produced. Izzy top was third in an oaks.
Agree with Middle_of_March and also think Rhododendron will have no trouble staying the trip. She was doing all her best work at the finish of the 1000 Guineas uphill at Newmarket after being held up by Ryan Moore and her stamina is assured.
Let’s not forget the talented (but naughty) Sariska (Pivotal) who after winning the Musidora in 2009 went on to take the Oaks and the Irish Oaks.
She had a colt by Frankel in 2015 and he holds an entry for the 2018 Derby.
I think MoM was in fact talking about Coronet, but you’ve proved me wrong Tryptych , I had completely forgotten about Sariska. However I think she should be treated as the exception rather than the rule, in what was a weak Oaks anyway.
And yes MoM, perhaps I found it so disappointing purely because I had such high expectations for her, in hindsight it has left her open to a lot of improvement. I just wonder does she have the cruising speed to get her into contention at Epsom.
I’m not being funny but some of the comments you come out with are very odd
how can it be a weak oaks if midday finished second?
I’m not being funny but some of the comments you come out with are very odd
how can it be a weak oaks if midday finished second?
Just because somebody doesn’t have the same opinion as yours Judge doesn’t make it odd.
I say it was a poor Oaks because it was essentially a two horse race. Herself and Midday were up against 8 absolute no-hopers. Rainbow View was the only other filly in the race who possessed any semblance of quality, but she was an out and out miler.
Sariska stayed, Wings of Desire stayed, but are people really willing to bet on Rhododendron staying, who looks all about speed, at evs?
Aidan said straight after her guineas defeat that Rhododendron was always their oaks filly and would have no problem staying the trip…that’s good enough for me and happy being on at 5/2…just don’t see any danger whatsoever..
They have had a deluge overnight and I suspect it will rain a fair bit today. The ground is currently Good To Soft and it is hard to imagine it being any better than Good by Friday. This, together with the likely tactics of Frankie, are likely to make it a proper test exposing anything that doesn’t stay. Obviously the favourite has the high-class form in the book and I would think it’s a case of “if she stays she wins” but she is no betting proposition.
I can’t quite see why Sobetsu is 14’s whilst Coronet is 8’s and would certainly play her if she runs. Connections have said they will go to France for the soft ground but if it looks like being soft on Friday then they may well change their minds. You have to disregard that form on fast ground but, if you do, she has to be a major player. I also love the two Nathaniel horses and, again, they are all about stamina and will be running right to the line. Watching Enable in that Newbury race, she was doing all her best work late on and she was impressive at Chester. They may have been “trees” in behind the front two, but they beat them by 9 lengths. I’d be very surprised if she didn’t finish in the first 3. The race might come just a little too soon for Natavia but she certainly looks the part and a further easing in the ground would bring her into it. My AP bet on Shutter Speed is lost so I won’t be playing again until final decs and NRNB but it looks a fascinating race and I think there is more strength in depth here than in the Derby.
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I’m not being funny but some of the comments you come out with are very odd
how can it be a weak oaks if midday finished second?
Just because somebody doesn’t have the same opinion as yours Judge doesn’t make it odd.
I say it was a poor Oaks because it was essentially a two horse race. Herself and Midday were up against 8 absolute no-hopers. Rainbow View was the only other filly in the race who possessed any semblance of quality, but she was an out and out miler.
Sariska stayed, Wings of Desire stayed, but are people really willing to bet on Rhododendron staying, who looks all about speed, at evs?
No I agree with you that the fav here looks like an unlikely stayer
The Fillies Mile was Rhododendron’s best win last year:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6m80ua326I
Watching the race again, she stays on strongly and wins with plenty in hand. Sobetsu was well thrashed that day.
I think this is an easy race to solve. Class will prevail. There is no Epsom hill by the way, it was surveyed years ago and the myth debunked, the final furlong is slightly downhill. Coronet only grabbed 3rd in the French race by coming past beaten fillies, Rhododendron will be way too fast for her, and probably the rest of them as well.
Where is Goreisking when you need him
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lol I was thinking of the dear beloved departed Gore earlier and how he’d “simplify” all of these debates.
Rhododenron, easy
Rhododendron will indeed be too fast for her.. until they hit the 11f pole.
She is a classy filly no doubt, but how anyone is considering backing her at 11/10 over 12f is beyond me. Beating Hydrangea by two lengths has since been shown to be muck form, while Sobetsu has clearly come on leaps and bounds since last year. I’m not as confident in Coronet as you all seem to be in flower power, but I do think she will improve a fair bit from her last run which should put her bang there. I just hope she travel smoothly and not risk getting up too late.The risk of Rhododendron not staying doesn’t seem to be factored into her price at all, it is a complete bandwagon effect.
I too don’t think Rhododendron will stay, just like her cousin Cracksman. Any horse with Pivotal in their pedigree will not stay 12f in my opinion. Coronet’s breeding flagged her up as an interesting contender for this to me weeks ago, but her reappearance was so disappointing I decided I would leave her alone. But now that it’s so close to the race and nobody bar Rhododendron has stamped any sort of authority on affairs, I think I might have to take the 8/1 on offer.
wasn’t sariska by pivotal? and she won the oaks. Surely you have to look at each horse individually.
Judge..I already mentioned about Sariska being by Pivotal a few posts up and said that Rhododendron could be another exception to the rule…she also won the Irish Oaks but never quite made it as a 4yo running in the Middleton and being beaten by Midday before she acquired the career ending habit of planting herself in the stalls at the beginning of each race along with that she had a good go at trying to kill her trainer Michael Bell just missing vital organs by inches as she kicked out
Pivotal certainly bred a lot of spirit into his offspring so fingers crossed that Rhododendron gets home on Friday, I think she will..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Rhododendron will indeed be too fast for her.. until they hit the 11f pole.
She is a classy filly no doubt, but how anyone is considering backing her at 11/10 over 12f is beyond me. Beating Hydrangea by two lengths has since been shown to be muck form, while Sobetsu has clearly come on leaps and bounds since last year. I’m not as confident in Coronet as you all seem to be in flower power, but I do think she will improve a fair bit from her last run which should put her bang there. I just hope she travel smoothly and not risk getting up too late.11/10 on a doubtful stayer is madness imo
Anyone playing at that price should give their head a wobble. Minding was 5/4 last year for the same race and Rhododendrun wouldn’t beat Minding over a mile or a mile and a half even if given a 10 length head start.
Yes but Minding actually won her guineas
I think it’s dangerous though to underestimate the O’brien bandwagon, it keeps rolling on, guineas double double is ominous for those wishing to take him on at epsom
Doesn’t everybody remember the same doubts about Minding this time last year.
I’m sorry but Minding is 100 times better than Rhododendrun. Minding went off 5/4 in the oaks. Rhododendron is currently shorter price. They both had stamina doubts and were believed to have to rely on their class to get the home.
Minding had that class in abundance. Rhododendrun is nowhere near Minding. She didn’t even win her Guineas
She is a classy filly no doubt, but how anyone is considering backing her at 11/10 over 12f is beyond me. Beating Hydrangea by two lengths has since been shown to be muck form, while Sobetsu has clearly come on leaps and bounds since last year. I’m not as confident in Coronet as you all seem to be in flower power, but I do think she will improve a fair bit from her last run which should put her bang there. I just hope she travel smoothly and not risk getting up too late.
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