Oaks 2022

[IanDavies]

Perfectly reasonable – it was just a Novice Stakes I saw her win when at Sandown Park and as I took 8/1 afterwards I was thinking: “why am I doing this? It’s not even a pattern race and she hasn’t even done a time. And she’s only 8s. You never do this.”

It was totally against my better judgement.

I think With The Moonlight is the forgotten filly in the race – she’s done nothing wrong this year and was impressive in the Pretty Polly.

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[botchy1]

Fascinating race this and i think Thoughts of June is looking like the last bit of value remaining for this now @ 20/1.

Above the curve runs in France on Sunday up against the English Guineas runner up and another of the Cheshire Oaks runners is out tonight so should give some clues to the strength of the form.

[IanDavies]

12 declared for the Oaks

Emily Upjohn
Nashwa
Tuesday
Concert Hall
With The Moonlight
Rogue Millenium
Tranquil Lady
Thoughts Of June
Kawida
Moon De Vega
The Algarve
Ching Shih

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[BigG]

I think that Kawida could run a good race at a decent price. She’s a well bred filly
by Sir Percy and I think she lookslike she will improve for the extra couple of
furlongs. She can take a bit of stoking up and had to weave her way through in the
Montrose Fillies Stakes at Newmarket back last October, but when she finally got into
top gear she won going away, with With The Moonlight 2L back in 3rd. WTM is currently
a 10/1 shot (as low as 6s with Coral).

She had a comeback race in a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud last month over 10 1/2f where
she finished 1L behind a decent Andre Fabre fav.

She’ll need to step up on that but she’ll be fitter for it and as I said I think
the extra distance could bring about improvement.

Kawida 66/1 E/W various.

[Gingertipster]

“She’s a well bred filly by Sir Percy”

———————–

Is that possible?

Value Is Everything

[IanDavies]

I don’t think the change of going exactly enhances Nashwa’s prospects of getting the trip.

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[IanDavies]

Confirmed runners and riders for the Oaks –

Concert Hall TBC
Emily Upjohn Frankie Dettori
Kawida Jim Crowley
Moon De Vega Rossa Ryan
Nashwa Hollie Doyle
Rogue Millennium Jack Mitchell
The Algarve TBC
Thoughts Of June TBC
Tranquil Lady Tom Marquand
Tuesday TBC
With The Moonlight William Buick

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[Gladiateur]

Still don’t understand why jockeys aren’t declared at the 48-hour stage. 🤷‍♂️

[FinalFurlong91]

Tuesday drawn in the coffin box

Will need some luck in running from there unless she makes the running

[Mike007]

With just 11 runners and at least 2 likely to be outclassed the ‘coffin box’ on this occasion I don’t envisage being a problem.

[FinalFurlong91]

I believe the coffin box stat was anything above 10 runners over this trip at Epsom

You generally need a huge amount of luck like adayar got in the Derby to win otherwise your stuck on the inside rail as the other horses sweep past on the outside

I’m assuming Ryan will be on and he’s full of confidence atm so if anyone can overcome it it’ll be him

[BigG]

Bet365 and Skysports have gone 4 places so I can’t not have another bite
at Kawida at 66/1 (Bet365). I think she’s a rock solid E/W chance at least.
As already said she’s by Sir Percy, an undefeated champion 2 year old and
winner of the Derby, Dewhurst and 2nd in the 2000 Guineas and out of
Archipenko, a half sister to multiple Australian Group 1 winning Zaaki.

Kawanda has beaten 10/1 shot With The Moonlight on both their previous meetings,
by 5L and then 2L and although beaten 1l on her comeback last month by Place Du
Carrousel, a decent Andre Farbe horse at Saint-Cloud, that one was 2nd (beaten 1L)
by Above The Curve on Sunday in a Group 1 at Longchamp. That doesn’t do the look
of her prep for this any harm at all.

Maybe the Ed Walker stable ccan account for her price to a certain extent, but I
can’t say any more than I’m very keen on her and I think she’s massively overpriced.

[IanDavies]

Going into this Classic in this, the ongoing Ian Davies great ante-post catastrophe of 2022, I am in theory in better shape than in the other Classics thus far.

I have (expressed in points) –

20pts win Mise En Scene NR
10pts win Emily Upjohn @ 8/1
10pts win With The Moonlight @ 8/1
10pts win Tuesday @ 10/1
2pts win Thoughts Of June @ 20/1
2pts win Kawida @ 66/1

I am banking on Nashwa not getting the trip in the rain-softened ground, Tranquil Lady not being as good as the RPR originally thought she was and Concert Hall turning out to be a Ryan Moore reject (though let’s face it, he’s had to sit and watch plenty of stablemates beat him in these races).

Win or lose, it looks a really interesting Oaks to me, actually.

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[TheTinMan87]

Agreed with your thoughts BigG about Kawida I’ve taken 66/1 and the 4 places as well. All the reasons you stated basically. I think its a great market I don’t like any of the front 3 at their prices for all they are good fillies, this looks a better race than the market is giving credit for.

Emilyupjohn and Nashwa – they’ve basically done the same as With The Moonlight i.e. win a trial by miles but with questionable form in behind but With The Moonlight doesn’t have the sexy form figures as them because she was campaigned more as a 2 year old over shorter and got beat more.

Tuesday – why is Ryan Moore riding this one? Surely Concert Hall is a no brainer. What part of either 1000 Guineas run made him think Tuesday is crying out for a mile and a half? People will say oh Minding won an Oaks. Minding won a dreadful Oaks and didn’t run over the trip ever again. Concert Hall had already won the Salsabil which has worked out really well and was dropping back to the mile. I’m not convinced on Thoughts Of June – she got a very good ride at Chester and Above The Curve and to a lesser extent Moon De Vega were unlucky. I personally get the feeling the gap between Above The Curve and Thoughts Of June from their maiden at Leopardstown is a true reflection of the gap in ability between them.

[MoyenneCorniche]

I’m a big fan of Nashwa, looks a very talented filly (hands and heels for last two wins).

I understand the doubts about the trip but plenty of Frankels stay (Derby and Coronation Cup winner over CD) and Louganini out of her Dam Princess Loulou stayed 1m 4f on soft as well.

The fav could be a level above but the rest seem much of a muchness to me, considering a decent bet here….

[Illavim]

Am on Kawida at 66-1 too BigG, agree she seems overpriced, assume because she is with a less high profile yard.

[BigG]

That’s likely to be a factor Illavim. Hope we get a good run

[Author]

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