The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Epsom Oaks

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Epsom Oaks

Viewing 13 posts - 35 through 47 (of 47 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1596905
    Gladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2268

    “Au contraire, Glad.
    Not “only” a maiden winner.”

    Ah, but I didn’t say that she was “only” a maiden winner. Ian posted that 12-1 was a shocking price for a filly whose only win was in a maiden. I was merely pointing out that Tuesday has only won a maiden, too.

    Sure, finishing third in a classic usually means an improvement from winning a maiden. But Tuesday’s only victory has come in maiden company and that is a fact.

    Besides, I think we’re all here old enough to remember the days when a Cecil- or Stoute-trained juvenile would hack up in a Yarmouth maiden and get single-figure quotes for the following year’s classics.

    In some cases (cough Killer Instinct cough) they didn’t even have to win to get the silly ante post quotes.

    #1596908
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29168

    Point is Glad, fact is:

    Unless a horse’s temperament means it shirks the chance to win whatever the company it keeps… And nobody I know of believes there is an issue of that type with Tuesday…

    When assessing the chance of any horse it is the level of form shown that matters; not what name of race the horse has won.

    There is a massive difference between:

    A) A maiden winner who has also been third in a Group 1.
    and
    B) A maiden winner whose best form is that maiden win.

    ie
    (A) Has comparatively little improvement to make in order to win a Group 1.
    (B) Still has a massive amount of improvement to make.

    Value Is Everything
    #1596911
    Gladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2268

    But a horse who has only won a maiden and has yet to run in a Group One may well be capable of performing to a higher level than the horse that has finished third in one.

    Anyway, this discussion is tedious. I’m leaving it there.

    #1596919
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3988

    I think it got tedious when you decided to be pedantic in the first place about what I originally wrote tbh.

    There are Maiden winners and there are Maiden winners who have since been placed in a CLASSIC, meaning they have obviously accomplished somewhat more now.

    Anyway, I can’t have the Cheshire Oaks principals on my mind for Epsom – I’ve got today’s winner 19lb behind Tuesday, and that’s, err, NOT judging the latter on her Maiden win!

    All good banter, chaps.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1596932
    mickeyjp
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1049

    Not sure 19lbs ahead but definitely a few pounds in hand.Neither will win the oaks and the second probably back down in trip is my guess.

    #1596934
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29168

    “But a horse who has only won a maiden and has yet to run in a Group One may well be capable of performing to a higher level than the horse that has finished third in one”.

    ——————————

    Yes, it “may”, Glad’. But fact is the vast majority of maiden winners that are “yet to run in a group one” are not capable of that level of form… Which has to be allowed for when assessing a racehorse’s chance.

    The point with Tuesday is she’s already been third in one Classic but that is unlikely to be the end of her progression. ie In all probability will prove capable of better form once upped to a mile and a half.

    Value Is Everything
    #1597046
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4317

    Emily upjohn in the musidora at the 5 day stage

    She’s 4s now so the bookies will have her 5/2 or something stupid before the race starts :negative:

    #1597047
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4388

    If the public are backing these horses they will shorten the odds one would expect.

    I noticed the odds tumbling for the Stoute horse in recent days for the Derby, before he takes in the trial. They are presumably taking the chance he is a bit good.

    #1597089
    Gladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2268

    Follow That Star didn’t do much for the Emily Upjohn form at Ascot this afternoon.

    #1597097
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3988

    I was at Sandown Park and was so impressed by Emily Upjohn I took the 8/1 for the Oaks afterwards.

    But I felt a bit of a muppet doing it – it was only a Novice Stakes and the price she is now is even more absurd.

    She’s not even run in a Pattern race yet.

    I look forward to the Musidora with more hope than actual expectation tbh.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1597358
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3988

    Today’s Lingfield Oaks Trial featured a head runner up with an OR of 90 and a two-lengths third with an OR of 77.

    The contest is about as likely to throw up the Oaks winner as GT is to be spotted holidaying with Jeremy Corbyn in Benidorm.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1598040
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4388

    Nashwa was good today. The Oaks is shaping up to be decent.

    #1598046
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3988

    I’m struggling to believe the fourth and fifth ran to their ORs and the third is only rated 89.

    Nashwa won in style, but I’ve got her on 110 for that, which makes her good enough to go to Epsom with a chance, but I am not entirely sure she wants further than 1m2f.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

Viewing 13 posts - 35 through 47 (of 47 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.