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“Au contraire, Glad.
Not “only” a maiden winner.”Ah, but I didn’t say that she was “only” a maiden winner. Ian posted that 12-1 was a shocking price for a filly whose only win was in a maiden. I was merely pointing out that Tuesday has only won a maiden, too.
Sure, finishing third in a classic usually means an improvement from winning a maiden. But Tuesday’s only victory has come in maiden company and that is a fact.
Besides, I think we’re all here old enough to remember the days when a Cecil- or Stoute-trained juvenile would hack up in a Yarmouth maiden and get single-figure quotes for the following year’s classics.
In some cases (cough Killer Instinct cough) they didn’t even have to win to get the silly ante post quotes.
Point is Glad, fact is:
Unless a horse’s temperament means it shirks the chance to win whatever the company it keeps… And nobody I know of believes there is an issue of that type with Tuesday…
When assessing the chance of any horse it is the level of form shown that matters; not what name of race the horse has won.
There is a massive difference between:
A) A maiden winner who has also been third in a Group 1.
and
B) A maiden winner whose best form is that maiden win.ie
(A) Has comparatively little improvement to make in order to win a Group 1.
(B) Still has a massive amount of improvement to make.Value Is EverythingBut a horse who has only won a maiden and has yet to run in a Group One may well be capable of performing to a higher level than the horse that has finished third in one.
Anyway, this discussion is tedious. I’m leaving it there.
I think it got tedious when you decided to be pedantic in the first place about what I originally wrote tbh.
There are Maiden winners and there are Maiden winners who have since been placed in a CLASSIC, meaning they have obviously accomplished somewhat more now.
Anyway, I can’t have the Cheshire Oaks principals on my mind for Epsom – I’ve got today’s winner 19lb behind Tuesday, and that’s, err, NOT judging the latter on her Maiden win!
All good banter, chaps.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Not sure 19lbs ahead but definitely a few pounds in hand.Neither will win the oaks and the second probably back down in trip is my guess.
“But a horse who has only won a maiden and has yet to run in a Group One may well be capable of performing to a higher level than the horse that has finished third in one”.
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Yes, it “may”, Glad’. But fact is the vast majority of maiden winners that are “yet to run in a group one” are not capable of that level of form… Which has to be allowed for when assessing a racehorse’s chance.
The point with Tuesday is she’s already been third in one Classic but that is unlikely to be the end of her progression. ie In all probability will prove capable of better form once upped to a mile and a half.
Value Is EverythingEmily upjohn in the musidora at the 5 day stage
She’s 4s now so the bookies will have her 5/2 or something stupid before the race starts
If the public are backing these horses they will shorten the odds one would expect.
I noticed the odds tumbling for the Stoute horse in recent days for the Derby, before he takes in the trial. They are presumably taking the chance he is a bit good.
I was at Sandown Park and was so impressed by Emily Upjohn I took the 8/1 for the Oaks afterwards.
But I felt a bit of a muppet doing it – it was only a Novice Stakes and the price she is now is even more absurd.
She’s not even run in a Pattern race yet.
I look forward to the Musidora with more hope than actual expectation tbh.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Today’s Lingfield Oaks Trial featured a head runner up with an OR of 90 and a two-lengths third with an OR of 77.
The contest is about as likely to throw up the Oaks winner as GT is to be spotted holidaying with Jeremy Corbyn in Benidorm.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’m struggling to believe the fourth and fifth ran to their ORs and the third is only rated 89.
Nashwa won in style, but I’ve got her on 110 for that, which makes her good enough to go to Epsom with a chance, but I am not entirely sure she wants further than 1m2f.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Nashwa confirmed a runner.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I think with Nashwa she had to make up a lot of ground from last (off not a very strong gallop, so quickening past quickening horses) and as such maybe was paying for that big sustained effort in the final furlong.
She potentially could have the biggest turn of foot in the field and as such tactics might be quite important to her in that she needs to be delivered with one decisive burst late on rather than get into a protracted battle up the straight.
Her half brother (by Zoffany) won over 12F on soft ground and we know Frankel is not short on imparting stamina into his stock, the dam won over 10F on heavy so I do think they were right to declare her here rather than in the French version and you don’t know until you try although I wouldn’t like to see a repeat of the Newbury tactics at Epsom though.
If she’s as good at 1m4f as she looked over 1m2f at Newbury, she has a big chance.
But I’m already on Emily Upjohn at 8/1, Tuesday at 8/1, With The Moonlight at 8/1 (bigger now!) and Mise En Scene at 33/1 so, based on my slight stamina doubt about her (and the fact I can’t back everything in the race!) I’m going to let Nashwa win without my money on her!
Which tbh she might well do!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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