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I’m on Tuesday (among others!) for the Oaks and I think she’s crying out for 1m4f.
I really hope she goes to Epsom Downs for the Oaks now.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Tuesday a late foal who is going to improve for going up in trip, been 3rd & 2nd in classics to proper milers. Concert Hall needed all of 10f last time so drop back in trip was surprising to me and ran like i was hoping she would i.e. running on.
Emily gone odds on now. Crazy.
Tuesday is far from guaranteed to want 1m4f on breeding
Minding won the oaks but she doesn’t look remotely close to that class on what she’s shown and that was the only time minding ever raced over 1m4f
Empress Josephine didn’t stay 1m4f
And neither did their dam Lillie Langtry
It’s whether she looks one paced because she needs much further or because she’s just not that good
I’d probably rather back concert hall myself of the obrein pair
You’re not the only one who thinks that, but I think it’s harsh on a filly having just the fourth race if her life today who has now been placed in two Classics over a trip I think is very much a minimum for her.
Any full sister to an Oaks winner must have every chance of being an Oaks filly herself and I hope she is sent to Epsom.
Game of opinions, though, so we’ll see.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Yep, a full sister to an Oaks winner and the way Tuesday travels suggests to me that a mile will soon be seen as short of her “minimum” trip. I’d be very surprised if she is not much better at 1m2f and probably 1m4f too.
Value Is EverythingEmily upjohn went to Epsom today for a gallop
No stone unturned from the Gosdens
I’m struggling to see what beats her at this stage tbh
She potentially beats herself I guess if she gets a bit keen early on when they are going uphill
Il have to try to find something to take her on with at some stage just nothing is sticking out right now. Will likely wait to see the ground and draw.
“I’m struggling to see what beats her at this stage tbh”.
Emily Upjohn 110
Tuesday 109
Concert Hall 108
Nashwa 107
WTM 107Some good opposition for the favourite to deal with on numbers. Not saying she can’t win its just that the price is all wrong. It should be similar to Desert Crown’s imo.
Oaks prices are imo currently all about the market allowing for the possibility of rivals not turning up.
Tuesday and Concert Hall need to recover quickly from the Irish Guineas
On Oaks day if both the Irish runners are there then I expect their prices will be shorter and Emily quite a bit better than she is now.
If the Irish duo don’t turn up it will look a weak Oaks and Emily will be shorter than she is now.
Value Is EverythingThe racecourse bookmakers won’t have any ante-post liabilities.
If the uncertain runners show up, they’ll want to get Emily Upjohn and I could see her being 11/8 or even bigger.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Still think the biggest threat could come from her own stable with Hollie Doyle potentially having a chance of making history to boot.
One thing not many have talked about (probably a bit early considering its a bit of a toss up as to who will line up) is where the pace is going to come from – not sure Tuesday/Concert Hall will be looking to make the all the running and I would imagine Frankie would be reluctant to either so it could end up not being a proper staying test at the trip.
Interesting to note the favourite’s breeding – although the dam won her only race over 10F she ran over 12F 3 times and was beaten a combined 20L+ and all of her other foals were pretty much 6F-8F performers…..yes she is by Sea The Stars but it is by no means a given that she will stay either.
Form is what rating a horse shows, not the finishing position.
Hidden Brief’s win at 10f was in a maiden, LD.
Some of her runs at around 1m4f were at least as good if not better than that win.When assessing stamina, who the sire of siblings was needs to be taken into account.
If looking at who the sires of Hidden Brief’s foals were, the foals produced all stayed at least as far and in most cases a little further than the sire himself stayed…And of all the sires Hidden Brief has been to Sea The Stars is by some way the biggest stamina influence.
Therefore – on breeding – Emily Upjohn can be expected to stay a lot further than her siblings.On breeding alone there is not much doubt in my mind she should stay, but temperament has also got to be allowed for.
On temperament there is certainly a question whether Emily Upjohn will stay. Will need to settle far better than in the Musidora and – as you imply LD – there may not be much pace to settle behind.
Value Is EverythingI’m on Emily Upjohn (among others!) at 8/1 but, while I’m happy with my bet, I don’t see how she can possibly start odds on.
Nashwa, Tuesday and With The Moonlight all go there with perfectly-good chances.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Above the curve heading to France this weekend and Tuesday drifting alarmingly lately suggests we could well be looking at a small field come race day.
Tuesday is 21.0 on the exchange which strongly suggests someone knows she’s not running
I agree.
Once again the Devil vomits in my ante-post kettle.
You’d think with 8/1 Emily Upjohn I’d be happy.
It’s getting to the stage where I need her to win just to pay for all my bets on non runners!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I find betting on the classics can be pretty tough due to the volatility of the market and so many different options (UK, ire and france)
I had a nightmare last year so have tried to bet less antepost on them this year
I slightly regret not backing emily upjohn I just wanted 10/1+ and it wasn’t there
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