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Mike summed up his breeding pretty well actually, it’s an encouraging breeding for the derby perhaps yes on paper.
But he’s no dream derby breed
Yeah French my query with your RPRs is, you use them a lot, and you are saying RE needs to step up, but on RPRs he’s ran to the level Armory has already, and has less runs!
I wouldn’t be in the Military March camp either, but a lot do seem to be. I agree a massive question mark for me is the trainer. His Guineas run was in theory a nice prep and he wasn’t beaten up when the others went onto battle out the finish.
He is too short at around 5-1 for me 100%. Yes it’s looking wide open now, and in theory his Guineas run is probably the best form on paper, but he’s just a horse to be against at that price. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran a similar race to Benbatl did and just find a few too good.
I really like English King but the booking of Frankie has made him an even poorer price.
I personally don’t particularly rate Mogul, and i’d have a slight worry about Russian Emperor’s tactical speed in a race.
It’s quite a hard race to actually find a selection in at the moment, as with it being wide open, i suspect it’ll be an attractive race to bet in closer to the time. It’s too hard to second guess Ballydoyle. Armory is now 70s for here, and i feel he’d be shorter by a good bit, if there was a chance he was coming. Even then though, we are in the dark as things can change.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Other thing to note is that some horses need their first run more than others. For example Mogul (who trainer said would have wanted 2 preps) and Japan v Russian Emporer and Santiago. MM trying to keep up with faster horses over an inadequate trip as well as feeling it at the end on his first run back and jockey accepting it would explain the run. Just coz he didnt run past beaten horses it doesn’t really matter. It was difficult to come from far back all week on that course. I expect Buick will have him dropped out this time and come late whilst others in the race will feel the shock of coming down the hill. The 5-1 isn’t overly short I’d have him around a 7-2 chance in what may not turn out to be the strongest Derby. 16 of the last 18 winners were 7-1 or shorter come race time and raced no than 5 times so less exposed.
Trainer don’t bother me. Ed Walker has the favourite he has no Derby CV to drool over either.
Oh they definitely both have to step up, 100%.
But just because RE has had less runs, doesn’t necessarily mean he has a bigger scope to improve. AOBs improve as 3 years olds from first to second race a lot usually.
Also, RE has already improved from 2 to 3, could be that he’s improved just to his level now.
Armory ran to 111 FTO, which he also did as a 2year old, so he hasn’t improved yet and thus one could argue, that he has more improvement to come than RE has.
RE has also run twice this season don’t forget and not improved that much. 107-111. When talking about AOB derby horses, that is usually a little warning sign that they are not quite good enough for The Derby.
He didn’t come from the back though, he was fairly prominent and nearly in the lead about 2F out.
Anyway, I don’t think he ran a bad race at all and you’re right it might not be a derby that takes much winning. I don’t like English King either. He’s a ridiculous price.
Be careful with that number of runs stat though, as the 2 times that’s been broken was in the last 2 years.
That’s the point i was making, jockeys hands was forced somewhat as they couldn’t be dropped in and had to race more prominently than they perhaps wanted.
A likely different set of circumstances awaits.
I said this above Frenchy, that Armory hasn’t taken a step up in distance so he might well have improvement too, however, it’s not certain. Generally, horses with 4 runs improve more than one with 8!
Also, RE has already improved from 2 to 3, could be that he’s improved just to his level now.
It could be, and it could also not be? You don’t know, i don’t know lol? It’s worth remembering how quickly these horses are running again, after first runs- they won’t have been given the time to improve as much as past seasons- so to be honest, the 4 marks on the RPR wouldn’t concern me one little bit.
Armory ran to 111 FTO, which he also did as a 2year old, so he hasn’t improved yet and thus one could argue, that he has more improvement to come than RE has.
Yes- i think it would be daft to not expect him to improve from a seasonal run. It’s by how much that is the important bit, and whether stepping up 4f will unlock a lot of improvement. I like Armory, and would back him for this if he went, but i don’t know if he does.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Vatican City + Armory taken out of Irish Derby……French Derby perhaps? Less of a step up distance-wise. Given they have Mogul + RE for here, or does he fire them all here!?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Well No one knows Jack, otherwise, we’d probably be all rich!
That last bit is a fair point, I’d have RE under consideration if he goes to the Derby, I’m not dismissing him completely.
AOB Said before the 2000 Guineas that with Vatican City, they won’t be in a rush to step him up in trip, so he maybe not going to any derby.
RE is 5/1 second fav for Prix Du Jockey club at the moment.
Military March very weak on the exchanges
Must have been reading this thread and wondering
When are the next Derby decs. Anyone know?
I think Monday.
That’s the point i was making, jockeys hands was forced somewhat as they couldn’t be dropped in and had to race more prominently than they perhaps wanted.
Ah okay, I understand what you mean, you think they would have ridden him differently if they could’ve. Hmm not considered that. Possibly then I guess.
I’ve been looking deeper at English King’s breeding profile tonight and whilst it’s true he fails a significant dam stat, I may have been a little hasty on that. If we look deeper at his pedigree, he has Darshaan & Mr Prospector in it who pop up a few times across the last 20 years of classics winners. There is also The Minstrel in it who won the derby in 197something and also he is the next generation down from Motivator. It would be wise not to discount him on his breeding, so actually I was probably wrong on that front for anyone that’s backed him. It’s just now whether is he good enough.
Will just be backing vatican city
Dont get english kings price atall… could win but at that price and his profile just let him go do it, still odds on for me he ends up toiling out the back, wont be laying him though unless he goes to an absolutely stupid price on the day
If it was a choice of the current price around 11-4 for the win and odds on toiling at the back I’d choose the 11-4.
Highest Ground makes some appeal to me now at 16/1 if he was to run.
Its almost by virtue of all the others not looking up to the job/passing my trends.
Not sure what RPR his win at Haydock will get but I think probably 109 at least (at a guess) That’s within a few pounds of his competition (bar Kameko) and he is by far the least unexposed.
The trends I use require a RPR of 118+ to win the Derby but only if more than 2 runs. With only 2 runs under his belt he could emulate workforce or ruler of the world by winning the Derby after just 2 runs. Workforce had a best RPR of 114 and Ruler of the World just 112 going into the Derby. Since 2005 every derby winner bar Wings of Eagles who had run more than twice had achieved a best RPR of 118 + going into the big race. It must be said that AVD last year had only achieved his 119 as a 2 year old and just 108 at 3.
If the previously fancied Waldkonig has in the last race improved to anywhere near what people were expected from him at the start of the season then that is potentially the best form on offer (bar Kameko).
Its interesting that Highest Ground has been fairly short in the betting with only one run in a Maiden. It shows hes really well thought of. This is in stark comparison to the likes of English King.
I am kind of clutching at straws here but if he does run that 16/1 looks a much better bet to me than the ridiculous price on English King who fails plenty of trends for me and is way too skinny a price on form.
Trained by a Maestro too which cant hurt.
Question is, will Highest Ground run?
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