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Wonder will they regret running him so infrequently in his first two seasons; a casualty of the Cheltenham obsession?
“Wonder will they regret running him so infrequently in his first two seasons”
Fun fact- even though she had an easy year last year and she’s only 5, Lossiemouth has had more starts over hurdles than Constitution Hill.
One horse further forward than the other in work
Everyone freaks out
The “superstar” drifts, goes on to win easily, returns to fav
The horse cantering all over him, does what 99% of 4yo’s in there open season and gets plastered
Thats the most likely scenario anyway
Constitution Hill favourite on Betfair again. I wonder how much of the 6 was layed?
I have been against CH a few times, but i wouldnt be making that mistake again, as i said above, by next saturday the probability that yesterdays overreaction to a steady workout looking foolish are higher than the chance of him just turning uo and winning.
I wouldnt be backing him for march at a barely 5/2 – 3/1 when you can back him next saturday at 6/4 against significantly lesser opposition, on what planet does mystical power beat CH both FTO if he turns up somewhat ready
Now of course he could scope dirty or something today and be pulled or the next few days if his workouts dont improve, but if hes in the lineup next saturday, what price does he actually go off? 1/4? Its not going to be evs is it? Just from a back and lay perspective, your getting good margins imo
“on what planet does mystical power beat CH both FTO if he turns up somewhat ready”
The planet where MP is two years younger, won two grade 1s over the trip (albeit non vintage novice ones) in less than 3 weeks this April, and is more than “somewhat ready” ie not fat and blowing 11 days before the race.
Willies famous for starting horses out with plenty of condition on them also so I wouldn’t be expecting peak Mystical Power either.
Nicky won’t run CH if he doesn’t think he’s in tip top shape. Therefore, if he lines up next Saturday, I’ll be expecting a comfortable ish win.
13/8 odds is huge but I think that’s more to tempt people antepost in case he’s a nr. If he lines up, he’ll be odds on.
Gag- he has at a minimum 20lbs of improvement to find FTO, assuming he does improve, that means if he runs to approx his novice rating FTO, CH could run probably two stone under his best and still beat him given we didnt know his top or as nothing could go with him
Theres a gap here that is seemingly being forgotten, a big gap, SM would be coming here if MP was thought more highly of, the fact hes sending MP over for this and keeping him away from SM or LM certainly isnt because hes better than them, its the opposite
And SG is entered now for a novice chase, not that it matters as hes a 4yo
Who else does that leave? If state man was in this race id probably still be saying the same currently
155 will win this, so your getting 13/8 he just turns up, as he wont lose if he does, its a shocking race without him, not remotely a grade 1
HAM, not many true grade one hurdle races these days, not many contenders to participate, this side of the sea.
And to be honest, prize money is not great for a horse putting is life on the line.Constitution Hill drifting like a barge for the Fighting Fifth.
Get ready for the announcement…
Oddschecker has CH now out to as big as 4s (with bet365) and 5/2 (with Betfair) for Newcastle whilst Sir Gino is now in at 6/4 (with Betfair) with bet365 at 5/4 – will a statement be forthcoming shortly?????
Henderson once again demonstrating that he has no idea what he’s talking about. This is from his current Unibet blog, which doesn’t even mention CH btw.
“Shanagh Bob is having to run in an all-aged handicap at Uttoxeter on Sunday which is ridiculous. I mean, would you really want to launch one of your best novice chasers in open company on their first start over fences?”
The race at Uttoxeter is a Novices Limited Handicap.
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