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Do the Irish jockeys still have to quarantine for 14 days when they arrive back in Ireland ? Quite a few big races coming up over there in the next couple of weeks.
It was me Ham, but wasn’t quite what I meant. He will run it to whatever he thinks is best for his horses, 100% agree, but he might not know exactly what that is either. I meant he’d likely have it go off fast and then slow it mid-race and dictate his own pace. If they go off quick all the way, it would likely suit EK much more, as it would be run similar to the Lingfield race. But I also think it would suit Kameko more to go off fast and then slow as well.
It’s hard to know and what muddies it, is that Mogul and EK are drawn together and probably want a similar run race, so I think it will likely be fair and no excuses from anybody.
I am warming to the idea that the draw stat will be broken this weekend though. There is a clear bias there, but has there ever been a situation where the two market leaders who are guaranteed to stay are drawn 1 and 2 where the rest of the field is made up of largely also-rans? No is the answer. This is the year that stat gets broken. But it will still be a strong one for next year, this derby will be an outlier.
I always find trying to decipher the race pace and tactics really fascinating actually. Now I think more and more about it, there is a slight questionmark as to what Mogul’s optimum distance will be. Both Secret Gesture and Japan stayed in the Oaks/Derby, but whereas I would call Japan a 12F horse, I think Secret Gesture was better over shorter and so was Sir Issac Newton.
For anyone interested, that 2013 Oaks is a brilliant example for this race. Secret Gesture drawn 1, overraces slightly at the start to get position in the field and then just runs out of steam at the end, whereas Talent, the winner, was drawn 3 and just drops right in behind the field, reserving probably the energy that wins her the race.
I’d be concerned now based on that if Ryan goes off too quick on Mogul to get position, it would make better sense I think to drop right in behind. That does mean the rest of the AOBs dont want to go off too quick otherwise Ryan would get slightly detached and if they go off slower than expected, Frankie has the ideal chance to over race to get near the front on a horse who probably has more stamina of the two that enables him to do that okay.
Fascinating race to watch! Jockeys will have to be at their very best, we’re in for a treat hopefully!
Well seamies taking the hit going to france hes having to quarsntine for 14 days when he arrives back but it seems the others dont need to going back to ireland, so someones well in the know about the air bridges lol
Best jockey in the race is beggy anyway frenchy, vatican city will be weaving through at the end
I been watching some Derby previews, I saw one yesterday and they had a theory about the Ryan Moore decision. One person said, and he could be right, that AOB may not have a standout this time and as Ryan Moore knows Mogul the best, Seamie Heffernan knows Russian Emperor the best, and Padriag Beggy rode Vatican City last time and with the stamina doubt in their thinking for him, that is the way they have decided to go.
That seems pretty sensible Mike.
I see Amhran na bhFiann is out to 100-1 now. Hmf. Prob means he is the sacrifical lamb, but in case not I’ve put this week’s PP free bet on him ew 4 places.noticeable drift on mogul in the past few hours, has any well known person suggested laying him?
Probably because of the draw
Has a horse ever won the Derby from stall 2?
1 has been labelled the coffin box but if that’s the case 2 must be awful statistically too
Well, i’m on Pyledriver, who’s coming out of stall 3 !
Lovely progressive horse, gets the trip, seems to go on all ground.
Fingers crossed!I can just see RUSSIAN EMPORER winding up and flying down the outside late on. Being totally honest not a race type i look into too much and per this thread that’s why, Too many ifs and buts ????? It’s funny because there is much better betting opportunities elsewhere but I do understand it’s top top racing
Had a sporting 200-1 4pl ew pound on Gold Maze on the grounds of – why Harrington send him? It’s her first Derby runner; she did OK with her first Cheltenham Gold Cup runner
Her quote before the Irish Derby was that he was under-raced; he ran too free that day and perhaps it will have taken the tickle out of his feet. Since 2006 there have been 69 races over 1m4f at Epsom with 10+ runners
Stall 1 is 0-69
I have theory about this years Derby..ok it might be nonsense but here it is….
1. With the abbreviated season due to Covid, the trials have been condensed.2. Both in their proximity to each other and to the Derby itself.
3. Therefore the preparations more closely resemble the trials to the Kentucky Derby (closer together and vs other Derby aspirants).
4. In these circumstances seasoning is everything with recent experience and form counting for more than is normal in UK/Ireland.
5. Only horse this year that has had an American style preparation (3 runs, backed up quickly and last run 18 days out from Epsom), in fact only 3 other runners have had 2 runs.
6. The seasoned US style prep candidate is Russian Emperor
7. In addition, he has good form, group race winner LTO, good time figures, superb breeding (Galileo x Atlantic Jewel) and finally he is in the hands of one of the two maestro trainers with runners, with best ever Derby record and last year’s winning jockey.
Might be nonsense but it’s my thoughts/theory and I will bet accordingly.
Good luck all.Yes; I’ve backed Gold Maze, too using the Jaqueline Quest system ie why on earth is that horse running if it’s so bad? Of course, I realised afterwards that Jaqueline Quest ran because the owner wanted her to, but I still got ‘first past the post’ at a huge price.
It is a derby like no other due to the truncated season. FWIW my view is that English king is far too short for what’s he’s done. I do like the horse and loved his dad who was the most gorgeous horse but his form is similar to Santiago and what price would he have been if he’d gone to Epsom instead of the curragh. The fact aiden did that says a lot. Kameko is very very unlikely to stay but of course could do it. Russian Emperor to me looks the most solid bet and at a decent price. Mogul is the hardest to fathom. I’ve a feeling it will be Japan mk 2 and he’ll be motoring at the end and finish second or third. Vatican City is the samecas Kameko but Ive a feeling p beggy will still sneak a place. My outsiders are highland chief who has huge potential and serpentine who I think will end up giving Santiago most to do in the Leger.
There’s only one derby and while we won’t have the roar it will be still one of the best spectacles in sport.Nijinsky,shergar,generous,Australia are four of my fav derby winners.Cant wait. Good luck everybody.
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