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Right now, I just think that Mogul would need to improve a hell of a lot over LTO. It’s not impossible, but I can’t really see it happening. However, the price of Pyledriver makes me think there’s some value there.
I think we might see an end to the Coolmore domination this year – Russian Emperor looks the best of a pretty average bunch – but what else?
The one horse that does intrigue me is Worthily. I mean, would Gosden put one in just for the sake of having a Derby runner?
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
There aren’t a raft of options available to 3yos, and they’ve possibly decided, we will fire him in + see where he stands. A normal year i’m sure they’d know more.
Yeah i can see that with HC. He might be better with softer going, but he’s lightly raced + ran nice in the Chesham. I wonder how many pundits between now + racetime will question his 3rd 2yo run + not have researched the fact he had ulcers…..
It was Hugh Taylor, but i believe one or two more biggish tipsters have mentioned him one way or another. Tony Calvin being one.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Another Mohican Heights fan – just from looking at the market as it is now he stands out as being the wrong price relative to a few.
English King favourite, fine no problems draw isn’t ideal but he has probably the best jockey on board to get him out of bother, I do unlike others think Berkshire Rocco is a decent horse, I think he’d have gone close to winning the King Edward if he’d ran there instead of against the Irish Derby winner in the Vase, I don’t think he’s much worse if at all than Pyledriver and Arthurs Kingdom. Just my opinion everyone is entitled to theirs of course but regardless English King beat him very easily. I’d have liked to have seen him have to work to win a race as I can’t see him winning this hands and heels, another unknown is how he reacts when it gets to the ugly stuff.
Kameko would look a great price if you had even an inkling he stayed the trip, best form in the race draw looks fine and funnily enough I actually think the worst outcome for him would be if they made this into a crawl he’s been very impressive at the end of two very strongly run miles, going a good gallop won’t harm him until it gets to the latter stages if he isn’t to stay. I think he’ll get 10F fine so I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays well enough to place.
I’ve said enough about Mogul already, he’s O’Brien’s best hope but the market more than tells you that. Russian Emperor I don’t think is that good and like Mogul his price is no more than fair.
I think Kameko’s got a better chance of staying than Vatican City and I trust the form of the English Guineas more than I do the Irish Guineas so Vatican City actually has a lot to prove for all the potential is there.
Then you come onto the outsiders and just a gut feeling but also on what he achieved at 2, I think Mohican Heights is/will be a better horse than Pyledriver, Highland Chief and probably Russian Emperor as well. He’s the biggest prices of what I consider the plausible outsiders but I don’t think he necessarily should be, Simcock’s horses weren’t exactly firing prior to Ascot and there’s every chance he needed his run just as much as Mogul did. Given the doubts about 2 of those ahead of him staying and the less than ideal draws for Mogul and English King I have to get involved here and there are bits of 25/1 about, I’d have happily taken 20/1 myself.
The more I look at this race the more I am coming around to Vatican City. Especially now hes 11/1. He has the joint 2nd best RPR (along with English King) coming into the race but for me his G1 form is much superior to English King’s listed form.
He does have question marks on whether he will stay but as a Galileo and with dominant classicity and 12 stamina points there has to be hope. There is some more hope on breeding with his full brother Taj mahal staying and winning over 12f (albeit in lesser races in Australia).
I just watched the Irish 2,000 Guineas a few times and he stayed on really well, exactly how you want a Derby runner to stay on over a mile. Pushed along a little bit mid race, then was boxed in. When the break came he didn’t have instant acceleration but took a few strides to reach top speed and was staying on really strongly on the line.
Have topped up my bet on Vatican City and hes now my main hope.
Must be said Kameko looking very tempting now at 4/1 also but his dosage index of 2.64 and 2 stamina points just kills it for me.
Very difficult race to work out!
Not a race I get particularly carried away with these days, and even more cautious in this strange year.
A big field but an unconvincing bunch by my reckoning. English King is OK but not convinced by what he beat at Lingfield though he did do it well in the end. Kameko is the class act but might be found wanting in the last furlong. A few others come into the ‘OK, might have a chance but eminently beatable’ class.
The one that catches my eye, and to certain extent is a bet to nothing, is WORTHILY. This one was convincing on debut at Newbury suggesting there’s a lot more to come. In a normal year he would presumably have appeared at Chester or York to test him at a higher level so we are in the dark as to his real class. That said, he’s 33/1 across the board and I have immense respect for John Gosden who is not one to waste an entry just for a change of air.
A little bit more on my earlier comment about jockey bookings as regard the O’Brien runners.
I stand to be corrected but my investigating runs thus ……
Ryan Moore has ridden derby runners for O’Brien since 2012.
In that time O’Brien has won the derby five times ….Moore once.
So I stand by my previous comment,although the possibility exists I will end up with egg on my face this particular year now I’ve put this forward.
good luck to allInteresting point about Worthily Fivelongdays. I looked him up & Gosden has run 2 of his half-brothers in the Derby. Both finished 4th at 16-1 (including St Leger winner Lucarno). Full brother 3rd in the Lingfield Derby trial so obviously heading that way too but didn’t run. Worthily could be worth a few bob each way. My each way bet is Khalifa Sat though. I liked his attitude at Goodwood and should stay & handle the track, even if he’s not quite good enough to win.
A word on Worthily, if he was a contender for the 1-2-3 spots would Dettori have deserted his employer and got on Ed Walker’s horse? Egg on face for Frankie if Worthily beats EK.
GOING NEWS:-
The ground is currently good, good to soft in places. Good by the afternoon races probable, with it being dry tomorrow and just some light rain Saturday morning. Not really fast or really slow. So no excuses really.
The more you look at the race the harder it gets. I still think Russian emperor is a gradual improver and will improve for the step up in trip. What’s the odds that p beggy swoops like wings of eagles having been ignored. That’s the two for me.
I’d say so, he already has a question to answer regard stamina, soft going would not help with that.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
1m4f run at a gallop set by a couple of ballydoyle non hopers will surely make it a strong stamina test
They will be trying to set it up for their two main hopes mogul and russian emperor to be staying on late
Vatican city will also surely be ridden for luck as if near the front he surely wont stay
Mike i made it pretty clear who i backed, vatican city @18/1 e/w was a fair enough price given the possible stamina doubts, has as much scope to improve as anyone, wouldnt back him under 10s though and of the short priced horses id be with kameko aswell (havent backed him yet but i might) wouldnt rule out mogul but id be disappointed if he won given how many runs hes had and i doubt he has 7/8lbs more in him, doesnt look like it anyway, so ill avoid him, dont like russian emperor for this, leger possibly
Highland chief/pyledriver – not in this lifetime
Mohican heights definitely has the profile to improve on what hes done and he definitely should be as shorter
Serpentine could do what tiger moth done and take a big leap forward, he could drift to an extremely tempting price for a place only, be surprised if he won
Everything else just forget about Ill be tearing my hair out if this derby throws out more garbage
Thats my thoughts mike, and obviously against the worst priced derby favourite ever
Ed walkers needed the run at the time? Elaborate on that please with the % otherwise its pointless from such a small stable, very small sample size to conclude that from
So you ignore in behind berkshire rocco jack even though the horses in behind have been beaten further than EK & BR beat them? That has a level of significance IMO but i get what you mean, look, like i said, the horse could be a superstar, the problem is hes priced up as one and hes done absolutely nothing whatsoever and nothing whatsoever in a group race and if berkshire rocco is going to be the form marker, ill avoid him.
why would obrien be planning to blunt EK’s run whoever said that? Do you really think aiden obrien thinks that english king is better than the horses who he has entered? I very much doubt that, this isnt an enable/frankel going into the race. Cant have that as a posibillity, theyll do there beat to set it up for one of them to win and so they should.
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