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Jack, if Ryan Moore rides Russian Emperor, I’d back English King probably. There’s your answer.
I’ve bit the bullet and gone in today on Mogul, I really think it’s between Mogul and EK now.
Assuming Ryan Moore picks him and he doesn’t get drawn in stalls 1 or 2, siding with Aidan’s number 1 horse at 7/1 in this standard of Derby field, could look like a gift from the gods come Saturday night. Can even EW it.
He’s guaranteed to improve, maybe he doesn’t improve enough, I accept that, but honestly, if AOB can’t win the Derby this year, then he does seriously have some issues with his 3year olds!
This line up is awful. On paper, it looks Group 3 standard with 2 non-stayers in the first 5 of the betting.
Mogul, English King or Russian Emperor, it’s got to be one of those and I’m not a fan of RE, clearly!
Maybe EK is a superstar, but he’ll be the only one other than Mogul and if he does it, then fair play to him!
If/when Ryan picks Mogul, I really could see Mogul going off fav and hopefully EK will drift a bit to a more backable saver price.
@Kev, I’m not sure they will make it a test actually, as that would play into English Kings hands. I think they will make it a decent but even gallop, but I would be surprised if it’s very quick. Derby is always a test even if it’s an even gallop, so Kameko will struggle anyway. They definitely don’t want to run it like it was run at Lingfield surely?Mogul 14/1 Antipost Win
Mogul 7/1 EWAlthough my game is sprints my view for what it’s worth runs thus…..
English King would seem to have a fair chance given what he’s done and the fact that he ‘only’ won a Listed contest last time shouldn’t be held against him.
Kameko is more problematic while there’s hope for connections personally I wouldn’t rate his chances of staying the trip above 50-50.
And then of course there’s the OBrien battalions!
Figuring out which one is his No.1 by jockey has proved a fool’s game and if you listen to post race interviews “the boys always liked him ……” you could insert any of his horses names and come up with the same quotes.On Sunday in my blog here I gave the view that O’Brien & connections are into ‘making stallions’ whichever wins doesn’t matter to them thus the scattergun approach.It’s hard to deny the depth of talent held within the stables but would there be the same success rate if he ran just his considered best one or two?
Of the rest of the field there may be one or two I have a sneaking suspicion may outrun their current prices.
good luck to allNo it hasn’t, that’s a flawed statement for the reason I’ve already mentioned on here. Yes AOB second, third string etc win from time to time of course they do, he has lots of horses, but the large majority of time the number 1 jockey picks the horse that finishes best of the AOBs.
It’s a massive pointer which one RM picks tomorrow. It has to be, it’s just logcial, it’s not at all a fools game.
Frenchy, do you see EK as a stayer that would benefit most from a strong pace? He travelled and picked up at lingfield like a horse that would be happy to go at any pace to me.
As always with Coolmore the draw and how they see the positions of EK/Kameko will dictate how they shape the race but they always make it run at a good pace.
I’m not saying they’re going to do what they did in 2017 and muller The Anvil from the front, that is never the plan as it makes the pacemaker null and void.The key thing with the jockey bookings Frenchy is whether it’s factored into the prices. It’s only an edge if the price doesn’t reflect it.
The key thing with the jockey bookings Frenchy is whether it’s factored into the prices. It’s only an edge if the price doesn’t reflect it.
That’s almost saying a different thing though. I’m saying the number 1 jockey the vast majority of time does pick right.
Odds wise, there is always value in AOB second strings and sometimes less so on the fist strings after they choose, yeah I accept that.
Frenchy, do you see EK as a stayer that would benefit most from a strong pace? He travelled and picked up at lingfield like a horse that would be happy to go at any pace to me.
That’s an interesting point, I think it’s guessing though. I’m just going on what I saw, but you could very well be right Kev, he might be happy with any pace of race. Saturday we will see!
It was rattling fast at Lingfield though as I keep saying, it will be a completely different test for him I think on Saturday
RUSSIAN EMPEROR 8/1
Crying out for extra 2f after win at Ascot and for me improves for going up extra 2f here as well.
EMISSARY 33/1 EW
3rd start be derby but Workforce did it who related to it true not show that same form but he a highly promising colt
If the exchanges are right Ryan’s picking RE!
Making me work hard the derby this year blimey, normally I’m all over a horse weeks out!
I just can’t see Mogul winning without Ryan picking him, would speak volumes for his fitness I think
Has there ever been a horse so short a fav for the derby without ever running in a group race?When the form of his previous win has taken a hammering? I agree kev about him looking good, but its one thing looking a “tool” in a listed race against nothing and stepping up to the derby…
I said previously im not saying he cant win, but ive changed my mind, he cant win, he wont win, might plug on at the end at best.
On form he should be 10/1 minimum. How that can be argued ill never agree with.
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/17/epsom/2020-07-04/758987/
Not a good draw for English King in 1
Hammering Ham?
He’s taken a hammering with the draw yes.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!haha, the last 24 hours went well for me, picked Mogul on the basis he wouldn’t get stall 1 or 2 and that Ryan looked like picking him!
Thank the lord, I cashed it out at 6am for only 5% loss, so got to be happy with that.
No way, EK will win from stall 1!
To be honest, it looks such a bad bad race, that I am coming back round full circle and potentially going to pick two horses that on paper cannot stay. For one reason only, that I think they are the best two horses in the race and could actually be streets above the rest of this group 3 bunch of horses.
Staying in a usual strong line up Derby is completely different to staying in a race full of Group 3 horses.
Kameko and Vatican City.
f*** it, I’m back on Mogul!
Changed my mind more times than ……………(someone fill that gap in)
Yeah Frenchy, i have to admit, i enjoy reading your thoughts with the trends etc don’t always agree but that’s a forum. Your Derby views though have been absolutely crazy, all over the place!
The exchange prices for RE and Mogul were separated by like 1 point before the Derby decs….that is no certainty on who Moore is riding!
I presume now you are off the Vatican City wagon?
It’s a wide open derby this year and i feel for English King’s connections now.
Happy with Mohican Heights personally, for all Simcock isn’t a trainer associated with the Derby.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’ve not backed a Derby horse from stall 1 before so will see how Frankie will play it. I expect he will have a plan. Maybe to pop out promptly and not be too far back. Oath won the Derby from 1 so its not like its never happened. Will see how it pans out but. I am not going to panic.
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