- This topic has 387 replies, 48 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
How tuned up was he for his first run of the season mike and how tuned up was berkshire rocco?
However you slice it up and however easy he won, 2nd has come out and been beaten, 3rd has been hammered, 4th has been hammered, 5th has been hammered 7th has been hammered
The trainers record in the race?
You can bred for a derby all you want hundreds of horses a year are but the form atm is not stacking up for me
Hence why i said hes still odds on to finish out the back for me, thats not to say 12/1 isnt a bad price, i still wouldnt back him at 12/1 right now personally, i wouldnt lay it either.
In not too worried about vatican city staying, wouldnt back him at 8/1 now, was 18/1 when i said that.
Kameko should be favourite. its an usual year because theres not much 3yo form to go on, everything should be 5/1 min IMO
Ill probably back another galileo before the off also
Berkshire Rocco ran a good race though HAM, + the trainer was flying. So it’s fair to assume if he wasn’t 100% straight, he wasn’t coming from a yard blatently needing runs anyway.
Vatican City isn’t bred for the job, he’s more bred to be a miler. Steps up 4furlongs too? While you say you wouldn’t back him at the 8s now, that’s as crazy a price as EK in my book.
At least the trainer generally knows what he’s doing in regards to the Derby lol.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Ah no and now we will never know if MM had the speed for the Derby!
KrisKin, I have much the same as you, but I did some work on Dosage today and alarming for Kameko it does not look good at all!
Breeding – Dosage
20/20 – COD Index between (0.72) – +0.41
17/20 – COD Index between (0.17) – +0.4120/20 – DI Index between 0.24- +1.67
15/20 – DI Index between 0.58 – +1.38Kameko DI is 2.64!, COD is 0.70. He looks way out. Not since Benny The Dip in 1997 has a horse with as high a DI won the Derby. That’s the only 1 from last 30 as well.
I had a look through that race and all but 1 of the horses 25/1 and under had over 1.0 DI, which means they all had a fair amount of speed.
This year’s lineup will have almost all staying ability in their doseage at least.
I just can’t see Kameko winning now, I won’t be backing him.
The issue I have with Vatican City, is he looked like he might have beaten Siskin with a clear run, not sure 12F will be his optimum and AOB said before that race, he can’t imagine they’ll be in a rush to step him up in trip at all, let alone 12F, so this looks like an afterthought off the back of that run.
Russian Emperor has actually run already 3 times this season, that is usually a big negative on the trends unless you’ve hit a good level and I suspect he won’t be quite good enough. 4 times he’s run and only achieved 111 as an RPR. He also didn’t even get a mention in the AOB stable tour, which I find a little odd.
EK is way too short to even consider now anyway. I have two hopes left I think.
Armory and Mogul by antiposts.
Ham when AVD won his trial last season i seem to remember he didn’t beat anything of note but it didn’t matter. It was just a prep for the big day.
He’s actually not on the dosage charts. He’s bred fine for the Derby distance, it just appears that these progeny run better over shorter, Gleneagles obviously is one, but there are others.
That does seem more an anomaly and full brother Taj Mahal did win twice over 12F in Grp2s.
For me, it’s more that he shaped like a miler as well in the Irish 2000, I’ve watched it back a few times now and he might well have won that with a clear run.
I was talkimg to Ham about specifically taking apart the prep race. I was aware of AVDs 2 year old races.
Becoming a bit of a nutty price the FAV now 2/1 in a place :wacko:. May well win but pretty sure you could of got 7/2 for Australia to win the Derby on the morning of the race.
Taj Mahal seems to be the anomaly here surely? Given it’s an AUS 1m4 as well, i think it’s fair to say the UK 1m2 was probably the furthest he stayed. Happily stayed a mile and a mile 2. Marvellous not really tested well enough to be sure, but clearly didn’t see out the trip all that well either.
Lads, don’t mean to be the forum policeman here, but could we maybe copy + paste the parts we are replying to? This thread is getting difficult to keep up with.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!English King is too short at current odds anyone would think he is trained by John Gosden.
Good luck to Ed Walker but I’ve sided with Mogul, he seems to be the forgotten horse after his Ascot run but that they would have had this as the main target and everything would be timed to the minute for this.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Taj Mahal seems to be the anomaly here surely? Given it’s an AUS 1m4 as well, i think it’s fair to say the UK 1m2 was probably the furthest he stayed. Happily stayed a mile and a mile 2. Marvellous not really tested well enough to be sure, but clearly didn’t see out the trip all that well either.
That’s actually what I meant Jack just didn’t word that properly!
You think an AUS 12f is much easier to get than a UK one though?
Maybe mike, but comparing an aiden obrien horse and an ed walker horse in a trial is a vastly different thing, not taking away from EW its just a fact,
Jack, he definitely will get 10f based off the guineas run for me but IMO anything bred by galileo has the scope to get the trip, i certainly take the breeding angle seriously but when it comes to galileo i tend to just go by what obrien thinks and if he thinks derby then thats good enough for me, the ground next week looks set to be rattling fast and a 10f galileo could well dominate the derby trip, i absolutely agree that 8/1 is too short, like i said 18/1 was more than fine with me when i put it above, would i take 8/1? No i wouldnt, id rather back kameko at 5/1 if i was looking at single digits
Not sure i buy into the berkshire rocco formline atall jack, horses who needed a run were told to be entered, he could have been tuned up or he could Really have needed it, which would only dampen the trial even more, nothing atall in behind has done a thing. im happy to let EK go and do it, like you said Mike AVD won it last year and he went into the derby @10/1, But AVD was already a group 2&3 winner and placed in group 1s, EK should be 20/1 on form, but hes 2/1 on jockey/hype/owner relations and a little bit of potential, but if your betting on potential, ed walker aint your guy.
Ill be pretty amazed that on the day, if the proposed field turns up EK doesnt drift to somewhere around 6/1 and kameko replaces him at the head of the market, money almost guaranteed to come for the obrien #1 (likely mogul)
Anythings race, including EK, kameko should be the outright fav.
I had been getting my dosage scores from a website which listed them all in one ‘handy’ list but it seems there were errors on it (eg Sea of Stars DI 3.0) . Have now updated my sheet from pedigree query website and Dominant Classicity is not such a strong trend (now only 10/15). And yes Kameko’s DI is now a stand out as too high.
I have added a bit EW on Amhran na bhFiann at 50s. He had a nice canter round the back on his only 2yo start when he was big and gangly, and ran a respectable race behind his stablemates on reappearance.
He’s a good looking horse with a good pedigree: full brother Douglas MacArthur didn’t disgrace himself at Epsom despite running with the choke out the whole way and sister Was won the Oaks. AOB cited him as one of his Epsom horses a month ago so perhaps he thinks the horse will cope well with the track.
It’s a trivial point but he also has a significant name!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.