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Derby 2019

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Viewing 15 posts - 121 through 135 (of 190 total)
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  • #1443574
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 609

    AVD runs! :-)

    #1443575
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    At last, an ante-post bet makes it to the race! :yahoo:

    value is everything
    #1443580
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 609

    I was thinking the same, after backing Mount Everest and Line of Duty. Thought AVD was going the same way, but no he runs! Wonder why the drift on betfair yesterday, maybe rider choices? If so, I’ll be happy if he drifts out to 10s or 12s just based on rider choices/pecking order.

    #1443581
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1392

    Line of duty the one drawn in 1

    Unlucky for backers as the stats say you cant win over this course and distance from stall 1

    #1443594
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 609

    I completely assumed Line of Duty was coming out to go to Chantilly! He can’t win after his shocker in the Dante anyway, CA also said he needs a bit of ease in the going plus he’s in stall 1, which as you say FF is the final nail in the coffin for him. I managed to cash everything out on him for half stake back anyway.

    Telecaster also doesn’t have a great draw in 2.

    #1443595
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    At least some have won from stall 1 before, FF. Stall 2 Telecaster!

    Gives Oisin something of a question to solve. Does he make a move to race prominently like he did in the Dante… and risk being too free? Or take a pull… being a big horse with a long stride imo wouldn’t want to be on the inner surrounded by others. Although current price is still imo worth the risk; if he’d been drawn middle to high I’d have made Telecaster favourite! Not now. If I were riding Telecaster (hope Oisin is listening) I’d get out quick, get either to the front or on his own, position wider than usual for another horse to take his inner/alongside and then (if possible) settle back in third or fourth on the outer. Although taking note of Coolmore possibly going off at an overly strong pace in order to advantage their own back markers Broome and Sir Dragonet – Oisin may need to be further back.

    Stall 1 and 2 are the ones to be wary of; also wouldn’t want to be on the wide outside on an inexperienced colt that doesn’t break well (Sir Dragonet in 13).

    Stall 11 hasn’t been successful either where as 10 has the best results of all; which is on its own a little confusing. However, concentrating more of how many horses each stall has beaten suggests stall 11 is a coincidence and is if anything a good stall.

    This from our old TRfer mate Simon Rowlands is the best assessment of Derby Draw advantage I’ve seen:

    https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/rowley/rowley-fact-file-2018-epsom-derby-2952018

    value is everything
    #1443611
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Broome to sweep up.

    value is everything
    #1443613
    Running ReinRunning Rein
    Participant
    • Total Posts 185

    On the logistics side of things I am attending the Derby on Saturday.
    Will be in London on Friday and looking for a good racing pub south of the river in the Waterloo-Southwark-London Bridge area to view the oaks and Epsom card. Any suggestions?

    FWIW my shortlist is AVD, Circus Maximus, Japan, Norway & Telecaster. My 1-2-3 would be…
    1. Japan
    2. Circus Maximus
    3. Telecaster

    Good luck everyone.

    #1443623
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 609

    The more I think about the draw, the more I think that’s killed of Telecaster’s chances. I need to get myself into the exchanges so I can lay a bit back! I just went back through the last 10 derbys and horses drawn either 1,2 or 3 have not won and placed only 3 times out of 30. Stall 2 has actually never won the derby since the new stalls introduction in 1967!

    GT, can you explain the Sir Dragonet comment again? If they hold him up again, why would it matter if he doesn’t break that well?

    #1443625
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21536

    Betway are doing a £10 freebet if your selection loses in this or the Oaks

    Member since March 2008
    #1443633
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    GT, can you explain the Sir Dragonet comment again? If they hold him up again, why would it matter if he doesn’t break that well?

    Holding Sir Dragonet up is fine, Frenchy. But imo stall 13 just increases the possibility of losing too much ground at the start… If the pace is strong or overly strong it shouldn’t be a disadvantage, could even be an advantage. However, odds I am willing to take need to allow for all possibilies; a chance pace will be less than strong or the field ignores the pacemaker/s. In which case losing ground at the start and/or having a position similar to Chester will be a disadvantage.

    value is everything
    #1443651
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1392

    Not too upset with jockey booking for Japan

    Wayne Lordan got the job done for me on hermosa which is more than Ryan Moore has ever done for me, so perfectly happy to have him jocked up

    Just glad my two ante post punts, Japan and Anthony van dyck, have actually made it to the race

    Hopefully one of them gives me a decent run for my money

    #1443724
    fivelongdays
    Participant
    • Total Posts 600

    Running Rain – I know the Lord Clyde certainly used to show the racing.

    Anyway, it’s between the first two in the betting for me and, while Telecaster certainly won a decent race, it was impossible not to be impressed with Sir Dragonet’s performance at Chester.

    Twitter=@PGHenn

    So don't run, just like the others always do

    #1443826
    raymo61raymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4753

    Am already on Mahdmoon at 16/1 and have it in a double with Anapurna at 8/1 so don’t need to go in again on that one. As a saver have backed Broome at 5/1 as I think it is the best of the AOB horses!!

    Good Luck Guys :good: :good:

    #1443868
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Jockeys on non-Coolmore horses might (seemingly wisely) think with a probability of Sir Dragonet and Broome out the back, it’s in their best interests to slow the field down, allowing (in theory) little chance pacemakers to go off in front. Sovereign is imo the most likely pacemaker and got within 3 lengths of Broome last time out in the Derrinstown. Therefore, if (and I know it’s a big “IF”) getting loose on the lead without going an overly strong pace, his proximity to Broome suggests will have a chance of staying there. Currently 159/1, I’ve had a few quid on. Remember Arabian Queen?! ;-)

    value is everything
Viewing 15 posts - 121 through 135 (of 190 total)
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