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Remember At First Sight GT, 100/1 2nd in 2010. Similar profile and potentially similar circumstances, so I am also on EW a little bit for Sovereign. I think Norway is another overpriced and could plug on and place at 40/1.
CANNOT believe they watered again last night. RIDICULOUS! There’s got to be an underlying reason for it, something like they are worried GF ground around Epsom ruins horses?!
There is probably enough juice in the ground for it not to affect Sir Dragonet now potentially?
Not sure I can even be bothered to have a bet this year but if I do, it’ll be Anthony Van Dyck. I’ll be cheering Telecaster & Bangkok though!
I’m definitely with BANGKOK for the hopes and dreams of Leicester City and the memory of Vichai. I dream’t the other night that he won this so hoping for it to become reality.
Didn’t see any Godolphin Blue in the dream but having an each way on Line Of Duty at 33/1.
Good luck everyone.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Colossal drift on Japan
Gonna end up a bigger price than the one I took in February the way it’s going
Broome at 8.8 and 9/2 and Bangkok at 34.0 and 10/1 E/W are my two here.
Both have made it to the race so that’s half the battle at least.
I’m more than a little surprised that my ante post punt, Line Of Duty, takes his
place in this after his abysmal Dante run. I had him at 16/1 before that race, and he’s double those
odds now. I suppose there are two ways to look at this, either he hasn’t come on from 2 to 3 and his
Dante run could be evidence of that, or his run in the Dante was just too bad to be true. Appleby
said after the Dante that on that run he’s not a Derby horse. He also said that he would have to come
on a great deal before they would consider him. Well he’s here, so I’m taking it that he has come on,
and Appleby has confirmed that. If it was just a complete off day, he has very decent 2 year old form
in both the Chantilly race and particularly at Churchill Downs. It’s a big ask after the Dante, and he
could have done without the No 1 stall, but if he has come on from whet he’s previously shown (at 2)
then he would be entitled to have a say in this. I’ve taken some 33s e/w to go with my ante post 16s on
the nose. It seems to be a Derby with question marks about most of the fancied runners, so who knows
Don’t see any standouts in the field. I have doubts about Sir Dragonet’s form because of the ground at Chester.
I’m going to go with Japan and Circus Maximus, Dettori on Circus Maximus catches the eye and I think Japan will relish the 12f and can come from the Dante race.
Possibly not the right thread, will start a new one in Horse Racing section.
Value Is EverythingAt this stage of their careers none of them look all that outstanding, just “solid”, and official ratings reflect that. So just look for the freak result. Humanitarian has the same profile as Commander In Chief had, going into the race. At 60 on the machine right now. Line Of Duty beat the recent Preakness Stakes winner by over three lengths at the end of last year; one poor race since does not negate that. At 46 on the machine right now.
Humanitarian has the same profile as Commander In Chief had, going into the race.
Commander In Chief and Humanitarian won conditions races by giving weight and losing by less than a length at odds-on in their Derby preps. So in that respect, Yes the same profile.
However, CIC gave 6 lbs to runner-up to Needle Gun. On next two starts – at level weights – Needle Gun finished runner-up in the then Group 1 Italian Derby. Only horse to beat him was future Arc and King George runner-up White Muzzle. Then Needle Gun finished 1 1/2 lengths second to Kingmambo in the St James’s Palace. Is Salisbury second Alignac of Needle Gun’s class?
In reality, CIC put up a performance a lot better than Humanitarian did.
Value Is EverythingGround firming up:
22% Telecaster 7/2 (5/1 available)
18% Broome 9/2 (6/1 available)
14% Sir Dragonet 6/1
14% Anthony Van Dyck 6/1 (available @ 9/1)
8% Madhmoon 12/1
7.25% Circus Maximus 13/1
6.5% Bangkok 15/1
4.75% Japan 20/1
2.25% Line Of Duty 40/1
1.5% Norway 66/1
1% Sovereign 100/1 (available @ 179/1)
0.75% Humanitarian 132/1
0 Hiroshima worse than 2000/1Value Is EverythingCome on, Broome.
Saver on Japan, who improved bundles from his first race last season and might have needed the run last time.
Humanitarian one for later in the season but might run well
In reality, CIC put up a performance a lot better than Humanitarian did.
Well, I was only clutching at straws! Here’s another one; in Humanitarians’s first race he finished two lengths in front of Bangkok who was having his third race. Promising place odds – or never to be heard of again! This year’s Derby is too difficult to fathmon really.
0.75% Humanitarian 132/1
Gosden says that the Derby was always Humanitarian’s target, but he had a sinus problem that halted his progress to one of the trials.
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