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Bookmakers must be laughing with Kingsbarns and now Telescope not turning up – if they can get Dawn Approach beat as well we will probably not hear the last of it.
Could you say more about why you think he won’t stay Steve.I know about his pedigree; did you see something in running that led to this conclusion?
Looking at his sire’s career the profile is very similar apart from the fact that New Approach never ran over less than 7 furlongs at two, usually on softish ground. He wasn’t able to win the Guineas but didn’t fail by much. Going forward I didn’t think he would get the trip at Epsom but he got the job done beating Tartan Bearer although he did wander about in front. It surely isn’t coincidence that he never ran over the trip again and I feel that he might well have struggled to get home on a more galloping track.
Moving to Dawn Approach, he looks sharper than his father and I just don’t think he runs like a stayer. I like a horse who can travel economically and relaxed before lengthening stride, rather than quickening. The way Dawn Approach moves looks like it would be hard to settle him in and I have reservations about how he will cope at Epsom.
He is a red hot favourite but I think there are enough doubts to leave him well alone and have a punt on something at much bigger odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
what can beat him though steve? the opposition looks fairly dire.
If he doesn’t stay the class gap will narrow quite substantially. Some less than brilliant horses have won the Derby over the years.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lester maintained that a horse does not have to be a mile and a half horse to win the Derby.A good horse can win if held up because the Derby distance does not allow a true gallop.But maybe that includes Lester being the jockey!
2,000 Guineas winner,Dawn Approach, is considered a certainty to win The 2013 Derby by many.
Most definitely not by me though. I’m treading carefully and taking on board history as part of my guide.
1 984 El Gran Senor ( thought unbeatable
) , 1985 Shadeed, 1986 Dancing Brave ( punters are still in shock to this day 
), 1988 Doyoun, 1991 Mystiko, 1994 Mr. Baileys, 1995 Pennekamp ( also undefeated before Derby ), 1997 Entrepreneur ( 4/6 ) ,1998 King Of Kings, 2001 Golan.Yes, many good 2,000 Guineas winners have won The Derby… but the byword is beware.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Dawn Approach looks a very good horse, but I must remember, this is an extra 800 metres we are talking about.
Jim Bolger said last year how he was not sure if he could push DA to 1 mile, how he was more a a short distance horse. The mile and a half wasn’t even in his mind.
Now DA has got the mile, will pushing him an extra half mile be too much?I’m aware of how good of a horse he is, but am not conviced about his stamina, perhaps he is just an excellent miler.
I think an EW bet on a horse like BOM would be preferred for me.
Would you back him to lose the Derby Himself?
No, but I will back others to beat him.
I have followed Dawn Approach since last summer, and had my biggest bet of the season thus far on him to win the 2,000 Guineas – so it would, on the face of it, seem folly to dump him now, as it were.
However, I do think there are obvious stamina doubts – coincidentally, I reckon the Coolmore team seem to think that too, given young Joseph O’Brien’s recent comments about the Guineas winner – and for me, Dawn Approach is a horse who looks every inch a top notch miler.
These bold words may well come back to haunt me, but I have taken a stance on this and I’m not backing down now.
No, I have quite a strong hunch that Mr. Aidan O’Brien will train the winner of this year’s Derby.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
No, I have quite a strong hunch that Mr. Aidan O’Brien will train the winner of this year’s Derby.
Stable stated that only Battle Of Marengo and Mars are definites for Epsom. I had expected it would be Ruler Of The World, rather than Mars. I reckon I have done my dough on Ruler and he can’t be great if Mars is considered a better option.
It’s starting to look a pretty weak renewal, and after having seemingly endless potential candidates on the conveyor belt it looks disappointing that the Ballydoyle machine has only managed to fart out Battle Of Marengo at the end of the production line.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Are JoBs comments picking straws out of the wind? In that they sincerely hope that DA won’t stay. That might actually play into DAs hands though if they go out to make it a searching gallop it will Kevin Manning a hack into the race and therefore, perhaps, he will not need to expend too much energy to get to the 3/2 furlong marker. If that is how the race unfolds would the class that DA clearly has and his 2f finishing burst would likely be too strong for this bunch of probably average 3yos? Class can overcome the ability to stay i.e. staying is only relative to the class of the horse. Frankel could probably beat this field by 10+ lengths despite the likelihood that he never would have truly stayed 1m 4fs. DA can’t be in the same class as Frankel but he is probably an above average horse in his generation with Kingsbarns out of the equation. Last years 3yos might be better than this years (still to be seen) but there don’t seem to be too many stars. BoM was only workmanlike in his trial and the other AoB horses beat little in their trials.
Even money is short enough for a Derby and wouldn’t attract my money but I thought Trading Leather was the best Derby horse from the Dante as Libetarian came up the strip of ground that is favoured at York (4-6 horses away from the far side rail) and TL came down on his own on the part of the course that is not well favoured. He seems (TL) to be going to France but that must devalue Libertarian as a selection given he ran like a horse with a few issues – on and off the bridle and looking a difficult ride – difficult to see the Burkes having a placed horse in the Derby let alone a winner. Hopefully Libertarian can run well.
Seems a clutching at straws to say DA won’t stay – it would seem unlikely at this stage that he would need to stay further than 10fs to win here (which given the way he has moved away from his field in all his runs you could not say he wouldn’t stay) given the potential gulf in class, i.e. a 125 (perhaps) rated horse against perhaps 118/120 type horses at best.
Himself, I don’t bet so can you explain why one would back something to beat DA and not back DA to lose ? Is it the odds?
Himself, I don’t bet so can you explain why one would back something to beat DA and not back DA to lose ? Is it the odds?
I was merely putting a positive spin on your initial question. I do not lay horses to lose as a rule – therefore my answer took that into account.
Best to ask our own dear betting guru ( Gingertipster ) how the odds stack up viz-a-viz laying Dawn Approach or betting two or three others in the race. He’ll give a more definitive answer to your query.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Over to you Gingertipster.
In case Ginger doesn’t see it I’ll put my two cents in.
If you are backing the horse to lose you are effectively backing "The field" i.e. all the other runners in the race.
In it’s simplest form, which Dawn Approach is the right price to be, we would look at a horse who was evens favourite for a race or 1/1 if you prefer to write it that way. That means that this horse is deemed to have as good a chance of winning as all the others in the race combined. He is 50% of the book and the others will be priced to make up the other 50% in a hypothetical 100% book. In the simplest form of this we could say there were two runners and the other one was also evens, thus making up the other 50%
Another example would be if there were three runners one of whom is our evens fav again. This time there are two equally likely opponents who have to make up the 50%, so that is 25% for each horse, which is a quarter and translates to 1 chance of winning and 3 of losing, therefore odds of 3/1 against. In this hypothetical 100% book the runners odds would then be, say for fun:-
Frankel Evs
Dawn Approach 3/1
Brigadier Gerard 3/1Looking at those odds, if you think Frankel will lose you can back BOTH of the other horses. If you stick a pound on each, and one wins, you get four pounds back BUT you have staked £2, so you have only doubled your money i.e. backed an even money shot in reality, or the other 50% of the book if you prefer.
If we take that to a bigger sized field and say that Frankel is still our evens fav, with five opponents in opposition this time. Frankel is 50% of the book and the equally rated five opponents have to form the other 50%, i.e. 10% each. 10% is 1 tenth i.e. one chance of winning and nine of losing, so the odds for these are all 9/1 against, giving a field as below:-
Frankel Evs
Toronado 9/1
Farhh 9/1
Animal Kingdom 9/1
Excelebration 9/1
Black Caviar 9/1Again, you could say that you don’t fancy Frankel and stick a quid on all the others. This time you get ten pounds back but you have staked five, so again backing the field equates to evens. If you don’t want to back ALL of the field against the favourite you can take the option of combining some of them against him. For example, you might think that only Farhh or Animal Kingdom can reasonably beat Frankel so you put a quid on each of them. Again you win ten quid but this time you have only staked two pounds so it is effectively 4/1 backing two 9/1 shots, whereas most punters would probably think it was 9/2, not accounting for the other bet being a loser. The trouble with that approach is that Frankel can still lose the race, but you win nothing because you left three runners uncovered.
All these examples are based on the highly unlikely 100% book and an Even money favourite. As the odds vary so do the percentages. If Dawn Approach goes to 1/2 he would have 2/3rds of the book, with the other runners making up the other third i.e. 2/1 against. In reality you will never get anything like the true odds when backing the field or outsider in such circumstances. In our earlier two horses (both evens) example, the bookies would have BOTH horses odds on to give them a profit margin.
I hope this was some use to novices.
p.s. I don’t lay horses either!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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