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Zark
What you think of performance by CARLTON HOUSE.He pulled for early part of race was flat footed at a stage as well.But still won without the stick being used on him.And was going away at line.Reason he is 6/4 fav more down to fact people will pile on him because owned by the queen
Am also on RECITAL at 16/1 as well and he got a massive chance. even though people keep saying he hangs is head to much.
Well something’s gotta give.
Seville, Native Khan and Ocean War didn’t win their final start as a 2yo. Only Benny The Dip didn’t of the last 16.
Pour Moi and Casamento finished outside the top 5 on 1 occasion each. Only Kris Kin of the last 16 winners did that. On his debut.
Carlton House, Recital, Seville, Pour Moi and Casamento all debuted at a non-Group 1 track. High Chaparral was the only Derby winner of the past 16 not to do so. 5 other placed Irish-trained horses also didn’t.
Casamento and Ocean War both ran to less than 114RPR last time out (waiting on Dante RPRs, very likely Seville and Carlton House have done the same).
Seville has not won on either of his last 2 starts. The only Derby winner in the past 16 runnings not to do so was New Approach, finished 2nd in 2 Guineas.
Recital and Pour Moi both finished outside the top 2 in a race other than a Classic this season. Recital only did so because of a bad ride in his defence. The last 16 Derby winners had all finished within the top 2 in all races that season.
Carlton House is a late-April foal, April 30th. The last late-April foal to win the Derby was Oath in 1999. High Rise was an early-May foal and won in 1998. Both winners won dreadful renewals, I’m sure we all agree.
Carlton House and Ocean War put in very low debut RPRs, 80 and 74 respectively. The only Derby winners to put in lower RPRs on their debuts were Oath in 1998 and Kris Kin in 2002.
14 of the past 16 Derby winners were out of a blacktype or unraced mare. I don’t know about the careers of the 2 exceptions and have researched – nonetheless, they apply to the 1998 and 1999 Derby winners, High Rise and Oath and we’ve already established just how bad they were.
15 of the past 16 Derby winners debuted in the top 4. Kris Kin the exception.
So….
Carlton House is a late-April foal, debuted with a RPR of 80, debuted at a non-Group 1 track and is by a sire with a stamina index of just 8.0.
Recital debuted at a non-Group 1 track and finished outside the top 2 this season (under a bad ride).
Seville debuted at a non-Group 1 track, didn’t win on his final start as a 2yo and hasn’t won on either of his last 2 starts. He’s also very stoutly bred for a Galileo colt and his pedigree similarly matches other stayers just as Sans Frontieres and Age of Aquarius. His 3/4-brother Nathaniel finished 2nd in the Chester Vase and looks like a big St. Leger hope.
Pour Moi debuted at a non-Group 1 track, debuted outside the top 4, finished outside the top 5 on any career start and finished outside the top 2 in a race this season.
Casamento debuted at a non-Group 1 track, finished outside the top 2 in a race this season and ran to a RPR of just 51 last time out. I’m very willing to overlook the latter 2 as I think it’s potentially very unfair to eliminate him based on the exceptional performance of another horse. Nonetheless he may run in the Prix du Jockey Club so let’s see first.
Native Khan’s dam didn’t achieve blacktype, didn’t win his final start as a 2yo and finished outside the top 2 on a start this season. On a personal level I don’t see how a horse who couldn’t beat a dual-AW winner over a mile will win the Derby.
And finally Ocean War didn’t even reach Oath’s debut RPR with a measly 74, didn’t debut inside the top 4, didn’t win as a 2yo, didn’t win his final start as a 2yo and put in a sub-RPR114 performance last time out.
Casamento is probably the best trends pick, but it’s a concern his 5 half-brothers raced over further than 9 furlongs between them just 3 times, finishing unplaced on each occasion. Doubts over his participation have also been expressed and could be heading to France for the Prix du Jockey Club.
And Recital is undoubtedly a close 2nd and arguably the clear pick if you can overlook his seasonal debut and the ride he got. Had Yeats not gotten injured, 11131430325 would be the form of the Derrinstown winners since 2000. Bear in mind Dylan Thomas is one of those and Archipenko is the 0. Of the last 5 Derrinstown winners to post a RPR of 118+ in the process, 3 won with the other 2 finishing 2nd and 3rd.
Ocean War is completely without a chance.
Native Khan lacks star quality I think and has been beaten by 2 other contenders, albeit on ground that didn’t suit him.
Seville would destroy the trends. Destroy them. He’s a Leger horse through and through, on both pedigree and the fact he’s run in a very good Leger trial.
Carlton House has an awful lot of negatives going for him. His profile probably matches Kris Kin better than any of his other recent winners or runners-up.
I cannot believe that in 5 days I’ve gone from completely writing off Recital to being a fan of him. Incredible. How.
You became a fan when you saw the opposition Zarkava.Saville’s race today was only a pipe opener, Soumillon only raised his whip when challenged and only once at that, check it out.It was never a serious race to the death,so to speak.In fact Moore thought it was never a serious race at all.But I fancy Fallon over Moore in the Derby. Won’t panic like Moore did last year. Stays calm and gets the best out of wayward horses.Go back to Leopardstown and listen to what Aidan said about both horses.Recital has more speed than Seville but Seville is more relaxed.Both qualities needed for the Derby.I believe Fallon will ride Recital and will win.
"We could yet see something similar from Seville, who was given a drowsy ride by Christophe Soumillon. This colt will never do anything in a hurry, but his jockey still had his posterior stuck in the air as they cruised past the two pole, with all bar the winner in trouble. Aidan O’Brien, his trainer, indicated that Seville would proceed to Epsom for the rematch, for which he looks sound each-way value at 7-1." Chris Mcgrath of the Independent.Just to support my opinion that he got aan easy ride.
Good Derbys or bad Derbys, they are still Derby winners!
I read with great interest and amusement some of the comments and it is so clear what horses people have backed ante post and are obviously trying to convince themselves that they have backed the right one LOL
Under no circumstances can i see Seville beating Carlton House should they meet at the Derby both in the same form and fit and well. At no time during the race (have watched it many times) does Ryan Moore ever look like he is in any doubt about winning the race as he wanted. Agreed Soumillon wasn’t at all hard on Seville BUT neither was Moore on Carlton House.
After pulling hard for a couple of furlongs he then relaxed and sat in behind allowing Moore to educate him. The way he smoothly went between 2 horses at pace on just his 3rd appearance on a race course was impressive.
You can quote positive and negative trends all you like (i am a massive trends fan) but Sir Michael is getting to be Mr Derby and knows when he has a good Derby horse. Ryan Moore did very well to win the Oaks and Derby last season so if he panicks again this year i’m sure his stables will not be worrying ROFL.
Recital would appear to have more chance than Seville IMO but Fallon confused the issue this week by contradicting himself a couple of times, to me the Irish do not know which is their best hope and as previously stated by Andy that normally means you have little or no chance.
I cannot wait for the big day (or 2 days for me) as i make the annual excursion from Yorkshire to Epsom just to enjoy all the great racing on offer.
Best of Luck to you with Recital and Seville
Is there anything that could win outside the big 5 (Carlton, Recital, Seville, Pour Moi, Native Khan)?
It doesn’t look likely judging by the odds. Perhaps not many horses will enter.
Pour Moi looks best value but the ratio of his place and win odds suggests he is a doubtful runner.
It follows that this could effectively be a four horse race. Hence place odds above evens for Recital and Seville look quite good to me.
The main problem with this approach is that the form is rather muddled so mediocre horses might not be frightened off and we could see a few speculative entries which might grab a place.
Kaspa: Couldn’t have Pour Moi or Native Khan but the one that i am looking at again now is
Having discarded him recently, mainly because i have him down as a St Leger type I think Mr Gosden (loves runners at Epsom) may now be looking forward to the race, it should be run to suit and the long Epsom straight should suit this one.I do not think the race will cut up as all the owners enjoy having a runner in the race and the day out. Also long priced outsiders often run very well and also place.
I have this year down as Carlton Houses to lose and Nathaniel to run into a place (or better) should he turn up and at 33s i have had a tenner EW investment.
So far i have lost £40 on World Domination but have £20 at 25s, £20 at 20s and £20 at 14s on Carlton House.
Cometh the day and on course i may back one of O’Briens merely to cover all bets.
Recital i can’t believe is that price…still 6/1. Carlton House should be 2/1 with Recital around 4/1 and then any odds you want the rest bar Pour Moi.
What a horrible race that World Domination ran….Seville was as i always said a boat.
Carlton House reminds me of Denman the way he carries himself
I refer to trends quite often Zarkava, and find your trends related posted interesting, but surely debuting at a Grade 1 track is an irrelevance / coincidence?
Horses finishing out of the frame during their careers however, is much more interesting. I used to be a massive advocate of winning form LTO too, preferably over 1m2f but that has bitten me in recent seasons with Sir Percy, New Approach and Workforce written off by myself. Sea The Stars was too, as he hadn’t won over 1m2f.
As i stated above, i have been looking for a bit of value from the Guineas, but looking closer neither Native Khan or Casemento really appeal. Maybe my trend is due back, and if it is then the Dante winner is probably the one.
Ruby: As stated above the author states 6/4 but the true price is 2s.
Trends are very good in certain races, i find more so in handicaps and especially jumps racing.
With our Group races i think it is more important to concentrate on the bigger yards that tend to target certain races each year.
As has been said above this may well look a weakish year for the Derby BUT you can only beat what is put in front of you, i firmly believe Carlton House will take a lot of beating but there will be a larger priced runner giving him a race!
Carlton House looks a very big lump of a horse…he will prob handle the track but their is a doubt that he is such a big horse that will the track suit.
The more i look at the Dante the more i am convinced it was a terrible races.
Kentucky Derby was a bit like our Derby in that there was no strong favourite and it ended up looking like a one off performance. My hope is for Carlton House because he is a lovely honest type and he really picked up well in the Dante even if he did not win it by far.
This time last year there was no strong favourite for the race and then on the day WOrkforce destroyed the field.
Just have to wait and see what happens!
RUby – is your Recital bet EW?
I refer to trends quite often Zarkava, and find your trends related posted interesting, but surely debuting at a Grade 1 track is an irrelevance / coincidence?
You’d think so, but 15 out of 16 years? The best maidens are run at Grade 1 tracks. And I still don’t understand why Carlton House debuted at Salisbury when the same stable debuted a different colt the next day at the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting over the same trip. Why?
I don’t believe it makes any difference which track they debut at? The same logic might apply to both. Perhaps the horse box to the first track was full and they had to split the two up each going with their own handler? By the way this is not a joke answer.Sometimes we look for a deeper meaning than is warranted.
MaoriVenture,
please can you explain your quote where you said that Pour Moi ran 9-10 lengths slower than Recital in their respective trials.
I don’t understand it. Pour Moi ran under standard for his race, whilst Recital ran slower than standard. It doesn’t make sense to me so would really appreciate your comments.
Many thanks in anticipation.
my anteposts for the derby this year are carlton house, recital
also abit on sevillevf
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