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Below are my ratings for the leading contenders of the derby to be honest I cannot conceive backing Carlton house at 6’4 or any other price. My short list would involve Native Khan, Recital, Pour Moi. I think the winner will come from one of these three.
ID Fin Pos Name Of Horse Rating
14901 1 Carlton House (USA) 92.08
11622 1 Carlton House (USA) 105.35
9421 2 Carlton House (USA) 93.17
14882 10 Casamento (IRE) 80.27
11556 1 Casamento (IRE) 140.32
9106 1 Casamento (IRE) 113.82
7789 2 Casamento (IRE) 104.75
6474 1 Casamento (IRE) 105.57
14504 1 Marksmanship (IRE) 37.07
14895 2 Memphis Tennessee (IRE) 121.39
12887 1 Memphis Tennessee (IRE) 98.00
6236 5 Memphis Tennessee (IRE) 89.81
14875 3 Native Khan (FR) 144.62
14670 1 Native Khan (FR) 129.44
11559 4 Native Khan (FR) 132.97
6138 1 Native Khan (FR) 113.21
3189 1 Native Khan (FR) 112.25
14891 1 Pour Moi (IRE) 129.63
14540 3 Pour Moi (IRE) 91.00
11671 1 Pour Moi (IRE) 111.11
14894 1 Recital (FR) 123.94
14562 3 Recital (FR) 138.30
11346 1 Recital (FR) 112.10
14883 11 Roderic O’Connor (IRE) 75.87
10985 2 Roderic O’Connor (IRE) 137.75
2641 1 Roderic O’Connor (IRE) 105.63
1850 3 Roderic O’Connor (IRE) 99.41
14902 2 Seville (GER) 89.68
11557 2 Seville (GER) 138.74
9884 1 Seville (GER) 116.57
9139 2 Seville (GER) 88.96
14904 4 World Domination (USA) 80.48
14775 1 World Domination (USA) 125.15Interesting that Aiden advised holding bets today as decisions have to be made as to what runs where. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Recital missed Epsom if the there isn’t some cut. He is offset (not badly, but enough to matter) on both his knees with a splint on the inner just below the off knee. This horse will not relish racing down a hill on the turn especially on good or firmer.
Also given the these conformation shortcoming he will be hard enough to market as a stallion so they might prefer to win it with something else if they could. A flat track would suit him a lot better so he might be the one for France.Very strange, it’s true. Seville I’m certain will go to Epsom, he needs a trip. Treasure Beach might turn up as a pacemaker? Recital’s place looks suspect, I’d say.
Will Aidan find one in the barn for Joseph to ride?Can he afford to carry overweight in the Derby?
Aidan would never say those things (or be forced to by the boss) if he had a genuine Derby contender. Maybe it is because Pour Moi is to be the main Coolmore hope for the Derby this year?
Carlton House is too short but it is no different from the ridiculous hype that WD got BEFORE the dante! Yes his win was not exactly scintillating but you have to remember the horse was coming back off a long lay off without a prep. I hope the horse wins but it is far from certain. Seville will NOT win a G1 at 12f this season Zarkava I think you were right in saying a Leger horse.
Recital better to go to France I think he will not cope with the Downs, though for Ruby’s sake I hope he turns up
With so many older horses in the yard it will be hard to find Group One races for his three year olds.
Memphis Tennessee is interesting. A straightforward type and a good mover he ran a fine race on his seasonal reappearance in the Derrinstown. He wouldn’t have to improve too much to be a serious contender. He may lack ‘gears’ however.
Interesting that Aiden advised holding bets today as decisions have to be made as to what runs where. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Recital missed Epsom if the there isn’t some cut. He is offset (not badly, but enough to matter) on both his knees with a splint on the inner just below the off knee. This horse will not relish racing down a hill on the turn especially on good or firmer.
Also given the these conformation shortcoming he will be hard enough to market as a stallion so they might prefer to win it with something else if they could. A flat track would suit him a lot better so he might be the one for France.he cost three quarters of a million euros
is it your opinion they didn’t realise they were buying a Derby horse who couldn’t handle fast ground and undulations? Did they buy him blind?
- Total Posts 17716
Another interpretation – if Carlton House goes for the Derby, Seville won’t.
A full brother to a group one winner and a half brother to Racinger (who was by the much inferior sire Spectrum)he was a foal share so he wasn’t too dear at €375K plus the cover. An attractive sort whose shortcomings as regards his front legs are there for all to see.
However given that Coolmore bought and raced very successfully the notoriously (and much worse) offset Giants Causeway their tolerance of this defect is understandable. It should be said however that Giants Causeway had more bone and was therefore more likey to get away with the defect (from the point of view of racing durability).
It became the norm to forgive poor front leg conformation in Storm Cats and a huge amount of money was spent (and wasted)on the progeny of this sire almost regardless of their conformation.
It is quite possible that Recital will hurl himself up hill and down dale with no regard to personal safety but it is extraordinary how horses with poor front leg conformation seem to be aware of the stresses and strains being brought to bear on their legs going downhill or on firm going. They are therefore carefull and wont ‘let themselves down’ especially if they have already suffered and learned the lesson as Recital has done as evidenced by his off fore medial aspect splint.I cannot understand the statements ‘the race will cut up’, makes me ROFL! There is no way on earth the race will ever cut up, yes a few of the main protagonists could possibly drop out (Recital the obvious one unlessa the ground is safe for him) but otherwise there will be the maximum field as always!
Secondly i will be dumbfounded if Carlton House does not stay! The maestro that is Sir Michael will not have groomed this horse for the Derby if he thought there were any stamina doubts.
As for the comment about starting off at Salisbury, all the top trainers use this course for newcomers and many very good horses start life there.
18 days to go, who’s counting
Some Derby observations, not conclusions
Records go back to Nashwan in 1989
1. No Derby winner had won over more than 8f as a 2yo
2. All English-trained winners had the word ‘quickened’ in their RP form comments apart from:
a) those that didn’t have a prep at 3 (Shaamit & Lammtarra)
b) those that ran 1st or 2nd in a Guineas (Nashwan & Sir Percy)3. 3/4 Irish-trained winners had competed in the Ballysax (1st or 2nd) & won the Derrinstown at Leopardstown, except New Approach (2nd in Guineas)
4. All winners won their last race except for:
a) those that were beaten in a Group / Grade 1 over shorter trip on last start (Generous, Dr Devious, Sir Percy & New Approach)
b) those who placed 2nd to a horse that did not subsequently contest the Derby (Quest For Fame was 2nd to Belmez and Workforce 2nd to Cape Blanco)5. All winners had won over 10f or 11f as a 3yo unless:
a) they did not contest a European 10f+ race at 3 and ran in a Group 1 as a 3yo (Nashwan, Generous, Dr Devious (ran in Kentucky Derby), Sir Percy, New Approach & Sea The Stars)
b) were unraced at 3 (Shaamit & Lammtarra)
c) came 2nd over 10f to a horse that did not contest the Derby (Workforce)The reason i said this race could cut up is that its a basic Match Bet. Recital vs Carlton House unless Pour Moi runs.
Seville has absoutely no chance of winning against Carlton House…everything went his way in the Dante and was stuffed.
If Coolmore sent Recital to France i personally beat Aidan O Brien over the head with a whip even though its not his decision. Who the f*&k gives a F*&k about that 1m2f farce over in France. I couldn’t give a monkeys about that race. Its a nothing race and is not even a Derby. Jesus Christ sending horses to france give us all a break. I can’t believe they would consider dropping Recital to France even if he is more suited due to injury( Bellestown fantastic insight
).Rant over
Ruby, have you not had a few bob on Pour Moi ? You mentioned him a couple of times earlier in this thread.
Agree with you about Bellowstown’s posts, very interesting and insightful.
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