- This topic has 125 replies, 34 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
The first 4 fillies in the betting for the F&M race have the following best RPRs for 2017:
Journey (113)
Bateel (117)
Coronet (115)
Hydrangea (114)The top two are G1 winning 4yo fillies, so I don’t think poor little Hydrangea is doing too badly. She has certainly trained on despite her size. One can’t say the same for a long list of 2yo fillies from last year who promised a lot.
The first 4 fillies in the betting for the F&M race have the following best RPRs for 2017:
Journey (113)
Bateel (117)
Coronet (115)
Hydrangea (114)The top two are G1 winning 4yo fillies, so I don’t think poor little Hydrangea is doing too badly. She has certainly trained on despite her size. One can’t say the same for a long list of 2yo fillies from last year who promised a lot.
Whatever happened to fair eva?
Hydrangea is another small filly who seems to be thriving on her racing.
I think you can discount USNF’s first 4 runs as AOB seems happy to let them take as many runs as necessary to win a race. This year, more so than previous years, he has been training them on the racecourse. Since his win, USNF’s RPR has increased steadily from race to race.
Saying that, Gustav Klimt has always been the Ballydoyle Guineas horse, and he was the Dewhurst horse until 10 days before the race. Although USNF has possibly surprised even them, I still think Ryan will be on Gustav in May.
Hydrangea had a rating of 112 after the Moyglare last year (on Racing Post figures). Her last run, more than a year later is rated 113 by the same source. Her peak run was 114 and that was at odds of 20/1. If we are to condemn the Racing Post figure, we need to also give the Official figures a kicking, because she is rated 114 there.
Hydrangea has benefited from a really modest season for 3YO fillies in the main. Enable apart, there hasn’t been a really solid 3yo. Winter is 119 regarded and Roly Poly 115, only 1 lb more than Hydrangea.
Hydrangea has benefited from a poor strength in depth and the fact that she keeps running against the same opposition gives the illusion of a consistent standard. She has raced against Winter six times out of her last seven runs. She has won 3 times from 14 starts and is hardly one we will be talking about in the future.
To paraphrase the old Vulcan greeting, “May you live in mediocre times”
Gustav Klimt needs a big leap forward from 2 to 3. His latest win is awful. One handicap winner (three subsequent losses) from 20 subsequent runs. I am not at all confident Gustav Klimt can win the Guineas and I have every reason to want him to do so, having backed him at 33/1 for the race. I am not getting the right vibes and I always tell my true feeling on this, rather than peddling faux bullishness in the hope that they win and make me look a confident wise guy.
I’ve got a weird theory about the 2000 guineas. I reckon Saxon Warrior might win it.
The first 4 fillies in the betting for the F&M race have the following best RPRs for 2017:
Journey (113)
Bateel (117)
Coronet (115)
Hydrangea (114)The top two are G1 winning 4yo fillies, so I don’t think poor little Hydrangea is doing too badly. She has certainly trained on despite her size. One can’t say the same for a long list of 2yo fillies from last year who promised a lot.
Journey has not won this season. Bateel has been picking up steadily in form but may actually be group 2 at best. Coronet has regularly been beaten at the top level and her Ribblesdale was one of the worst renewals ever. This is a modest Group 1 but I’ll be heavily into the notion that the older fillies will see the 3YO fillies off comfortably.
Journey/Bateel
Hydrangea/Coronet 
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Saxon Warrior is a better bet for the Guineas than several ahead of him in the betting.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My thoughts exactly about saxon warrior. Certainly has the speed to win the guineas and with no outstanding colt out there then it will be interesting to see if a aiden will run him. Nothing to lose as he will be even better over further.
Hydrangea is another small filly who seems to be thriving on her racing.
I think you can discount USNF’s first 4 runs as AOB seems happy to let them take as many runs as necessary to win a race. This year, more so than previous years, he has been training them on the racecourse. Since his win, USNF’s RPR has increased steadily from race to race.
Saying that, Gustav Klimt has always been the Ballydoyle Guineas horse, and he was the Dewhurst horse until 10 days before the race. Although USNF has possibly surprised even them, I still think Ryan will be on Gustav in May.
Yes 😀
Hydrangea/Coronet 
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.