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Thats a great question. Its an impossible race to assess until the winner either backs up or doesnt. Low 150s maybe for Altior. But that means everything but the winner has ran like a drain.
BUY THE SUN
With Sceau Royal falling, Global Citizen pulled up first time up and again pulled up and beaten a long way from home, Rouge Vifs trainer hasn’t had a winner from his last 44 or so runners so it’s fair to say he didn’t run to his best, Duc De Genevieres probably ran a bit keenly out in front and when he hit the 2nd last he went out like a light so fair to say he ran a bit below form. I would say it was completely fair to say all horses behind Altior ran below form so low 150s or so is probably fair enough and not far wrong.
Think you are being very harsh on Altior and Nube there.
The Duc is a solid 158-160 horse who ran his race. Taking him at 158, would have altior at 163 and Nube Negra at 167.
Meanwhile in Ireland Put the Kettle on is a solid 155 horse who ran her race.
Notebook was rated 163 going in, he beat PTKO by nearly 1.5 lengths giving 7 pounds so I’d settle at 163.
Chacun was 172 going in, and won by nearly 7 lengths not extended ahead of what I think was a 163 notebook, so I’d be inclined to say chacun was 10 lengths a better horse than Notebook. 173 for me.
So the 2 mile division based on today for me is:
Chacun 173
Nube Negra 167
Altior 164
Notebook 164
Duc 158
Put the Kettle on 155It never fails to amaze me how quickly folks jump at the opportunity to criticise a very good horse. Take Nube Negra out of the race today and the talk would be about how Altior was a little rusty on his return from nearly a year off but beat good yardsticks in the likes of DDG (comfortably) and Rouge Vif (very easily).
The Desert Orchid was run two seconds slower than the Wayward Lad, where of course Shishkin (who as we all know is the next coming of…Altior?!) was carrying 11st 2 against Altior’s 11st 6. So whichever way I look at it I find it hard to come out with Altior nearly two stone below his best and a low 150s horse. To me, the form blot was the relatively unexpected run from Nube Negra, which was better surely than even those (well done) who backed him could have expected.
You might be right about most of the ratings, but I fully disagree with you about Altior. He was suppossed to be at this best, he was 4 from 4 at Kempton and he was something like “better than ever”, if one can trust Nicky Henderson (I still don’t know who might do so).
He was pushed along after the 3rd fence or so, overjumped a few and was very reluctant to pick up when asked. He looked like a horse lacking the speed for a decent G1 chase over 2 miles. I wouldn’t give him more than 155-156.
Duc De Genievres hasn’t achieved much (or anythig at all) outside novice company and Rouge Vif’s stable (as already pointed out by Captain Robbo) is now 45 runs and 46 days without a winner.
Considering Politologue and a probable improver in Greaneteen also heading towards the top of the market, Altior might be just the 6th or 7th best horse over 2 miles at the moment. There will be not much improvment to come, as he was at his very best according to Nicky.
It never fails to amaze me how much faith people put in the clock to judge things. The time of a race even on the same ground and over the same CD on the same card is fairly irrelevant imo as so many different factors come into play, was the race ran at an even pace throughout? Was it a stop start pace? Did they go slow early, we’re they both fully extended and asked for everything? etc etc. Looking at clock times and jumping to conclusions is pie in the sky but that’s my opinion and you are welcome to yours.
Altior has been slowly deteriorating for at least 2 years perhaps 3. I’m not jumping to any conclusion and nor am I criticising a very good horse. He has won 14 grade 1 and grade 2 chases from 16 starts and is a 4 times Cheltenham festival winner. Acknowledging that he is no longer the horse he once was is merely stating the obvious and is not a criticism. I’m fairly certain that both Mr Henderson and Mr Boinville would fully agree with this statement in private.
Also I said I thought Altior was a horse in decline pre race and my opinion certainly hasn’t changed after watching the race.As for stating that Shishkin is the next coming of Altior now that is a ridiculous statement imo. He has ran in a beginners chase and a novice chase beating Mick Pastor, Battle Anthem, Tamarac Du Mathon, Elusive Bell and Gumball and you are calling him the 2nd coming of Altior?
A fair statement would be ‘Shishkin is a very exciting prospect who may one day become as good as Altior was but at this moment in time cannot be mentioned in the same breath’.
All about opinions. Thanks for sharing yours pre race 👍
And Nube Negra did run much better than I expected it could have or that I could have even dreamed of. My take on the race was it was wide open and I wouldn’t have been surprised had any of the 6 won but due to the prices I went with Nube and Global. Had I of felt Altior was at his career peak then I would have only seen one possible winner and that would have been Altior.
I find some of the quotes regarding Altior as embarrassing, bordering offensive.
It’s clear to everyone, and should have been to anyone with half a brain, prior to today’s race that Altior is not at his absolute peak anymore. The obvious question was going to be how much has he slipped and whether that would be magnified by him being off the track since February.
Nicky said pre-race that Altior remained electric at his fences at home, although may have lost a bit of toe. The amalgamation of these things aligned with facing younger improving rivals has seen him beat today. Beat 3 1/2 lengths by a good horse he was giving 6lbs – better start writing the obituaries!
Obviously Nube Negra is the anomaly in the race and has grown, strengthened and improved a ton since we last saw him. As stated above Duc Des Genievres was probably the yardstick if we’re looking at rating the race and if you took him running to his mark then Altior’s run to around 168. He’s not far from actually coming out on top here of it was run off levels!
Look I’ve already said he’s presumably not the force of old, but let’s not get carried away here. He’ll have needed the run and was giving away 6lbs. He’s still very much a player in the division for me. Would I back him for the Champion Chase? Would I buggery, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a big race there if he stays sound between now and March.
Well Tom I would be amazed if Altior isn’t retired before the festival. All about opinions
People throwing ‘low 150s’ rating for Altior. Are these numbers just being plucked out of thin air?!
I pretty much did just pluck that one out of the air Tom yes but I wouldn’t say I was too far wrong.
Altiors had 3 races in the last 20 months. The only one he won was a grade 2 beating Sceaux Royal just over 3 lengths off level weights. Sceau Royal hasn’t won a chase since 9 starts ago. Dynamite Dollars in 3rd (never won a chase outside of novice company).Simply Ned 9 lengths away back in 4th who has been unplaced in his last 5 chases including in a Kelso handicap last time. Kalashnikov back in 5th who has been beaten in his last 6 chases and bled from the nose and lost a shoe when Altior beat him.
The horse hasn’t ran a good race in over 20 months, he has ran some ok races but hasn’t been at his best for years. That’s reality no matter what you argue. No shame whatsoever in it either as he has had problems and is days away from being 11.
Time to retire and retire he will I believe.
I’m not arguing that he’s no longer at his peak, I made that point myself if you cared to read my previous post in full.
Ratings cannot just be ‘plucked out of thin air’ Robbo, and to chalk todays run down as a low 150s performance isn’t just an opinion, it’s wrong I’m afraid.
For as long as the horse remains competitive (which for his first run of the season and at the weights, he certainly was today) and sound he has no reason to retire. He has no stud value to protect and there are still races to be won with him.
If something were to come out regarding the horse’s health or wellbeing, by all means I’m sure they’ll do the right thing, but finishing 2nd today will not put him away to grass. Would he have retired had he ran to this level on return 2 or 3 years ago…?
For what it’s worth also, I seem to remember another Henderson trained chaser by the name of Sprinter Sacre. He had more than his share of problems, returned and was below his best.
That seemed to work out ok if memory serves
Of course he wouldn’t have retired if he ran badly aged 8 or 9 but he is aged 11 in a few days time and hasn’t ran a really good race in 20 months plus. People don’t like to see former champions run around getting slaughtered for the sake of picking up a few quid for finishing in the top 5. As a former dominant champion I fully expect him to be retired as surely after today’s run and looking closely at all 3 of his runs in the last 20 months he is nowhere near his best anymore. Not even close to it. Duc De whatever he is called is probably over rated, Nuba needs to back up today’s performance but has clear potential going forward. It’s now the correct thing to do to retire him imo. Keep sending him out to get beat and his legend becomes tarnished.
“For what it’s worth also, I seem to remember another Henderson trained chaser by the name of Sprinter Sacre. He had more than his share of problems, returned and was below his best.
That seemed to work out ok if memory serves“
Sprinter Sacre came back after appearing gone following a troubled season aged 9, he won his comeback run and looked close to back to his best, then won again before going onto retain his crown at Cheltenham.
Simply not going to happen with Altior (already hasn’t as he didn’t win today) and is passed his best. Your living in fantasy land imo but that’s your right to do exactly that.
Also Sprinter won the champion chase and then the grade 1 at Sandown and was retired. Did Nicky Henderson keep him in training after aged 10 and off the back of a perfect season or did he retire him? Do you think he couldn’t have picked more money up with that horse if he had let him run for another season? Of course he could have but he didn’t did he!
So the real meat of your thought process here lies upon the fact that you are indeed the real brains behind British handicapping. To have Altior running a low 150s race today (playing devils advocate for a minute, I’m just going to ‘pluck’ 153 ‘out of thin air’), that would indeed mean that ‘Duc De whatever he is called’ ran to 145, presumably meaning that he’s actually over a stone overrated if he gave his true running. I mean I know that was considered a bad Arkle that he won but wow that baby could’ve been run at Ludlow
Another question here, if these are such poor horses that beat Altior, why on earth did you back ‘Nuba’?
And, once again for those at the back, Altior ‘getting slaughtered’ today was a very imaginative way of seeing things when at the weights you probably would’ve needed a photo to split them.
Anyone for an encore?
I clearly stated that I felt any of the 6 runners could win today’s race and backed Nuba because in a race that you believe any of the 6 could end up winning that the one at odds of 30.0 was worth having a gamble on. I certainly didn’t back him because I believed he was a potential superstar though you would have already known that had you been able to read.
Robbo, you’re telling me I’m living in a fantasy land and making out like I’m referring to Altior still being at the peak of his powers. I’ve not once said that. I don’t believe he’ll win another Champion Chase. Saying that I didn’t believe Sprinter would either, although Sprinter was a superior animal imo. And a quick word – no, Sprinter was nowhere near his pomp when he won the Schloer after the time off, but that’s another matter entirely, I digress.
Altior isn’t at the peak of his powers and I’d be surprised if he won another Champion Chase. He’s still performing at a high level however and therefore there is no apparent reason to retire him.
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