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Desert Orchid Chase 2020

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  • #1515319
    Captain Robbo
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    • Total Posts 200

    Altior available at 4/5 on Betfair and that price would look huge if he was anywhere near his best but I would be keen to take him on here and think he will run a shocker.

    I have ended up doing win bets on both Nube Negra and Global Citizen both at 30.0 on Betfair as I think this race is wide open and could see any of the 6 winning. Just think these 2 both have a squeak today and at the odds are worth a bet.

    Does anybody have a more solid opinion on this race?

    #1515320
    He Didnt Like Ground
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    • Total Posts 995

    Why do you think he,ll run a shocker , I know some think the yard is not exactly firing on all cylinders but they did win the last yesterday at 25-1

    #1515324
    Captain Robbo
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    • Total Posts 200

    I just think he peaked in 2018 and has been gradually deteriorating since then. He is 11 in 5 or so days and must be vulnerable here.
    He has only had 2 races in the last 20 months. Comfortably beaten by Cyrname though you could easily make valid excuses for that one and although he did win a grade 2 when last seen beating Sceaux Royal by 3 1/2 lengths on good ground that horse gets 6lb this time from him and I could easily see him reversing the form here.

    I don’t really fancy Sceaux Royal today though can easily see him beating the fading light that is Altior, though that said any of the 6 could win today and I wouldn’t be shocked whichever horse wins.

    Henderson form is bad also, even with the handicap hurdle winner yesterday, for all we know that horse may prove to be 2 stone ahead of his mark he ran off yesterday. Just think Altior is highly vulnerable today but I would think the same even if Henderson was on fire.

    #1515325
    He Didnt Like Ground
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    • Total Posts 995

    Ok , I agree that he won’t be as good as he was but I still think he,ll win today , I like rouge vif if he doesn’t perform

    #1515326
    Captain Robbo
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    • Total Posts 200

    I like Rouge Vif also but I think the trainer is 42 runs without a winner and that slightly tempers my enthusiasm. Though all losing runs eventually end and it’s quite possible he could win today as a 6yo up and comer, I’m certainly not ruling him out.

    I just couldn’t rule any of the 6 runners out with confidence here which is why I ended up backing the two outsiders at 30.0 more in hopefulness and value based than sound logic.

    #1515327
    Captain Robbo
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    • Total Posts 200

    I expect Altior to go off at around 1/2 sp so betfair exchanges 4/5 is a very fair price if you fancy him today. I would imagine a lot of people will smash into him at those odds between now and the race time.

    #1515328
    He Didnt Like Ground
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    • Total Posts 995

    I’ve played a few shorties today at short prices , I expect Altior/shiskin/ballyadam and chac au pour soi to all win

    #1515342
    DBRDBR
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    • Total Posts 560

    Altior / Shishkin double for me. Very happy to see Altior back in action and I expect him to win cormfortably.

    #1515357
    He Didnt Like Ground
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    • Total Posts 995

    I’m so looking forward to shiskin …. I think he’s the real deal

    #1515368
    Captain Robbo
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    • Total Posts 200

    I think my prediction that they would send Altior off at 1/2 looks a bit off the mark, evens available now and looks like he could easily go off odds against by start time.

    #1515374
    He Didnt Like Ground
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    • Total Posts 995

    Henderson just won the 1st , if shiskin wins the money will go onto Altior , he go off odds-on

    #1515381
    Captain Robbo
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    • Total Posts 200

    Lucky winner for Hendo in the first as the horse who would almost certainly have won fell at the last and everybody expects Shishkin to win anyway so don’t think that will make much difference to Altiors price tbh.
    I’d still expect some late money on Altior but if he does go off odds against that will be the first time ever in his career as a chaser.

    #1515405
    DBRDBR
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    • Total Posts 560

    Got to back Altior at evens as well.

    #1515421
    Ex RubyLight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1867

    Quite a price 5/6, considerng he was just about the same price against proper horse last time when a NR in the Tingle Creek. This is way easier and there is nothing to beat except Sceau Royal.

    #1515422
    Ex RubyLight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1867

    11/10 WOW, What’s so badly wrong with him, if he couldn’t win this? Duc De Genievres and Rouge Vif nowhere near him….

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