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Official handicapper is an idiot.
If Calyx and Advertise meet next time out does he really think the betting will be as if the pair’s abilities are just 3 lbs apart?
Value Is EverythingI wish the betting did take that view Ginge, I’d be lumping on Calyx…..but
as you’ve already suggested, it’s just never going to happen.GT to you think they are 9LB apart?
Depends what you mean by that, nwalton.
The fact Calyx beat the horses he raced with means he’s better than the winning distance to the second and third suggests and thetefore worth marking his performance up. I think his rating is fair enough.
However, am surprised Timeform haven’t rated Sergei Prokofiev higher than Advertise, as he in particular didn’t get the best of passages through and (along with Advertise) quickened in the last 1 1/2 furlongs. So imo Advertise could be rated a pound or two higher too.
So if I had to rate the Coventry it would be 6 lbs in front of Sergei:
Calyx 118p
Sergei Prokofiev 112p
Advertise 111p
Vange 105+But that’s just rating the Coventry, nothing to do with scope for further improvement.
Sergei Prokofief (from what I saw on TV) has considerable size (more so than Calyx) so on looks alone the O’Brien colt could be expected to close the gap in time. Advertise is quite a good looker too. Although having said that, Calyx may not be the architypal big scopey sort, but is well-made with a wonderful long, fluent action… And has put up an amazing rating for both first and second starts, especially with his career just 10 days old. So although not the physical scope of Sergei should progress for a while yet. Head carriage the only negative.
Obviously am a big fan of Calyx and am glad I took 20/1 for the Guineas. However, I wouldn’t back him today @ 6/1 or Sergei @ 16/1 for the Guineas. Calyx’s pedigree and run style imo doesn’t give him any more than a 60/40 chance of staying a mile and I’d be surprised if Sergei Prokofiev stayed a mile.
At the end of the year I expect the Coventry 1-2-3 to have proved themselves good colts.
Value Is Everythingjust wondered which you thought was the more ridiculous(if any) rating gap, that of timeform or that of the official handicapper?
Btw I think Calyx is a million for the 2000, to buzzy, feel free to mock me the first weekend of may, not the greatest prediction giving a 1/6 shot 10 months out. lol
just wondered which you thought was the more ridiculous(if any) rating gap, that of timeform or that of the official handicapper?
imo No contest. Official handicapper has rated them dead on the distances.
Seems obvious to me that Calyx is better than distances back to the second and third suggest. Matter of opinion how much “better”.However, I have seen since my comment that Simon Rowlands disagrees. So I suppose I’d better reign back a little from that original “idiot” comment. Simon is certainly no idiot, although sometimes wrong.
Value Is Everything
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