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Weights are out – having had a quick scan I had to have a few points on Hargam at 33s – looks well handicapped to me
Ivanovic gorbatov
Tombstone
Limini
Riven light
Listen dear / dont touch it (if back over hurdles)
Would be my shortlist atm. Depending on handicap marksTombstone now very likely to run here after being given a very lenient handicap Mark.
Gone back in nrnbI’ve backed Tell Us More, taking the 25/1 as soon as it was confirmed that his rating will remain 143. He was a funny horse when with Willie Mullins. If you watch Douvan’s Supreme Novices’, you’ll notice this horse travelling better than anything (winner included!) before curling up the straight. He often shaped as if he had some sort of problem but won his share of races over hurdles and fences for the yard.
Switched to Gordon Elliott for two starts early in the season, there has been much more end product from Tell Us More. He beat 150s performers Alisier D’Irlande and The Game Changer despite a terrible round of jumping over fences, digging quite deep to assert after the last. He’s potentially thrown-in.
Winter Escape and Peace And Co could also be huge blots on the handicap, but there’s a bit less guessing required with Tell Us More. At least we’ve seen him run to 160ish in the last 12 months, whereas those two haven’t even completed a race in that time. The prices have gone for all three now but I’m happy with my position.
I’ll probably have one more slightly creative bet on the day (6 places please!) with Vosne Romanee, currently 33/1 in a place. Dr Newland’s potions are certainly kicking in with this one and he has been improving rapidly over hurdles and on the flat in the last year. I’m not worried about his long absence as Newland told Coral Champions Club back in October that the horse would have a long break, then one or two all-weather runs, then the County Hurdle. He hasn’t run in this standard of race before, but Newland is usually adept at knowing exactly what he has on his hands.
I’ve backed Tell Us More, taking the 25/1 as soon as it was confirmed that his rating will remain 143. He was a funny horse when with Willie Mullins. If you watch Douvan’s Supreme Novices’, you’ll notice this horse travelling better than anything (winner included!) before curling up the straight. He often shaped as if he had some sort of problem but won his share of races over hurdles and fences for the yard.
Switched to Gordon Elliott for two starts early in the season, there has been much more end product from Tell Us More. He beat 150s performers Alisier D’Irlande and The Game Changer despite a terrible round of jumping over fences, digging quite deep to assert after the last. He’s potentially thrown-in.
Winter Escape and Peace And Co could also be huge blots on the handicap, but there’s a bit less guessing required with Tell Us More. At least we’ve seen him run to 160ish in the last 12 months, whereas those two haven’t even completed a race in that time. The prices have gone for all three now but I’m happy with my position.
I’ll probably have one more slightly creative bet on the day (6 places please!) with Vosne Romanee, currently 33/1 in a place. Dr Newland’s potions are certainly kicking in with this one and he has been improving rapidly over hurdles and on the flat in the last year. I’m not worried about his long absence as Newland told Coral Champions Club back in October that the horse would have a long break, then one or two all-weather runs, then the County Hurdle. He hasn’t run in this standard of race before, but Newland is usually adept at knowing exactly what he has on his hands.
Peace and co dosent run.
I’d give tell us more a shout though.
And add in mick jazz for good measure.
Will be interesting to see how Cilaos emery gets on in the supreme in regards to the latter.Wow, I hadn’t heard. One of the big dangers out of the way I suppose.
Mmm Mick Jazz. I had him in mind for every big 2m handicap hurdle this season, but he’d always get pulled out at final decs. Then Gordy Elliott decided to win a graded novice with him!
I guess it’s a sign of confidence if they STILL think the horse is well-in after spilling their beans like that.
I am going to pile into Ivanovich Gorbatov (gone from 11’s which I took into 8’s) and Arctic Fire. That Triumph form from last year is looking very strong indeed
Will look again to Song Light EW who has not let me down and deserves a decent prize.
I have gone for Vosne Romanee at 25/1, as I decided to wait for enhanced place terms. With six places up for grabs it offsets the loss of 8pts on the double carpet available earlier.
The horse looks laid out for this and has won on lively ground. The form of his Perth win is mixed but some winners have come from it and he won well that day. He has quickly gone up 20 Lbs in the ratings and a win at Wolverhampton a months ago will have put him spot on. He’s already more than 60 Lbs higher over hurdles than he was on the Flat and the trainer is pretty good with his small stable. They have not had a lot of runners out but have five winners from their last 20 runners.
I like Air Horse One, who has found the winning thread, but I am worried that another 8 lbs hike in the Handicap and this more competitive company may find him out this time.
I’ll leave Ivanovich Gorbatov. The decent ground should help but he hasn’t tasted victory for a while and I am not sure if he is really well in off 150 on his handicap debut. Single figure prices on him is too short to my mind.
North Hill Harvey will be popular but two things put me off. He hasn’t been seen since December and he is 2/2 on Soft, whereas he is 0/4 on Good To Soft. I just don’t see value at 7/1.
Mick Jazz is from the Elliott yard and has the rising star Jack Kennedy on board. I just can’t bring myself to back him at these odds. Much of his price is based on connections and while he may well win this, I don’t see any wriggle room in his current odds.
Winter Escape would have a shout if bouncing back from a poor effort behind North Hill Harvey in the Greatwood but Alan King is pitching a shut-out at the meeting thus far and when your luck is out it sometimes stays out and there is just a suspicion for me about his earlier wins when well odds on. The Doncaster race isn’t worth talking about for form and while the Dovecote he won threw up wins from all four opponents subsequently, it’s a mixed bag of destinations they won in and there are some disappointing efforts in the mix as well. Just a suspicion that the huge field here will be a different game to where he has done his winning and the jockey won’t get away with dropping his whip as he did in the Dovecote.
In the end it was a question of picking a potential improver at big odds and trusting he will be in the first half dozen home.
Vosne Romanee 25/1 E/W 1-2-3-4-5-6
Hopefully it’s Coleman Mustard and not Coleman Balls. Remarkable
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ultra competitive event as always. Hargam bit the dust for my A/P bets, but after watching him run in the Coral Cup,i think the horse has gone at the game anyway and had zero chance of winning this. Still got 1 live A/P bet going on Ivanovich Gorbatov @20s. Campaigned for this after connections probably felt he wasn’t good enough to dine out at the top table. Was hoping Phil Smith would of cut him some slack but O’briens chucked a decent claimer on to boost his claims. I’ve since chucked some pennies in the direction of Winter Escape @12s. King thinks the world of this horse. The champion hurdle was talked about at the start of the season. A mark of 140 should not be beyond him if his trainer had such high aspirations.
Song Light for me too. Does anyone know why Wait for Me never scaled the heights he should have done. A standing dish at the Festival for a couple of years now and on a winning mark. Has he had injury problems?? Think he’s got a first time tongue tie on tomorrow.Can’t ignore him.
I think AIR HORSE ONE has run some decent races in winning his last three,
and could still be on the upward curve. He may have been bumped up 8lbs for his run at Ascot
a month ago, but he’s carrying a nice weight of 10-8 in this. He’d need to be open to more
improvement to take this, but I think there’s a fair chance. Harry Fry could have run him in
the Imperial Cup where he would have been carrying top weight, but didn’t want to waste his
chance here by going for the £50,000 bonus. I think he has high hopes for him and at 14/1
he’s worth a shout.Song Light for me too. Does anyone know why Wait for Me never scaled the heights he should have done. A standing dish at the Festival for a couple of years now and on a winning mark. Has he had injury problems?? Think he’s got a first time tongue tie on tomorrow.Can’t ignore him.
Been a long time since he was mixing it with Moon Racer, Buvuer D’air etc. He’s had plenty of chances in these big handicaps and always goes off a skinny price without threatning the judge. Had my fingers burnt far to many times to get involved 2moro
From what I’ve seen of Wait for Me over hurdles, his jumping has let him down.
Not something a horse is likely to get away with in big handicaps over the minimum trip.
My three for this are all huge prices….
CRIEVEHILL has form behind Neon Wolf 33/1
DOMINADA second to Diego Du Charmil last time when London Prize fell 40/1
OZZIE THE OSCAR who could love the ground 50/1
If any of them are close at the last I will be shouting LOL
I don’t really fancy anything much here, and can’t see anything lurking down the weights that seem well handicapped. As such, I’m going to get on the top 4: Arctic Fire 25/1, Lami Serge 33/1, Renneti 14/1 & Ivanovich Gorbatov 11/1 to show their class.
Got Winter Escape 33-1 Ante-Post, and happy enough with that, but obviously in a race like this, I’ll be wanting another 7 or 8, but I’ll settle for another 2 or 3.
Joey Sasa – Been watching this boy closely this season, and had a handicap in mind for him later in the season. I wasn’t convinced he’d end up in this, but happy to see him here. He’s got a few good runs in decent company so far, and trainer is fresh from handicap success here yesterday. He’s be my #1 for this now, and 28-1 with 6 places will do me just fine.
Court Minstrel – You could argue he’s regressing, but I’ve heard this said of him before. Ran a cracker off of 153 at Kempton in October, but now finds himself on 145, and on his favoured ground. I just can’t ignore him, and if he doesn’t win here, I’ll be sure to catch him at Aintree. 40’s win, and 33’s ew 6 places.
Boite – I’ve bet him many times before, and still not giving up on him. Ran well for a long way at big odds in The Betfair, on ground which would have been way softer than ideal, and with 6 places up for grabs here, I can see him getting there at 66’s.
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