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Having had a quick look at the odds, I feel like Luxemburg 5/1 is the value here if we forgive his Arc run in which he picked up an injury at the start of the race. Westover is a very good horse but I think he’s just shy of top class and I’m not at all convinced by Emily Upjohn, granted the filly or Westover could win this if the others at the top of the market don’t perform but I get the impression Luxemburg is the class act in the field. If he’s fully fit 5/1 looks very big, I’d assume Aiden would have retired the horse if he felt the injuries he sustained last season were too serious.
Aidan said he’s delighted with Luxemburg at the stable tour.
He said he was happy with most to be fair and all the usual spill but I took “delighted” to be a better term than “happy”Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
The jury is still out on him for me – I can fully forgive the Arc run even if he hadn’t picked up an injury as many horse simply can’t operate with those underfoot conditions but the Irish Champion win I am still not convinced off on the bare form alone. Hopefully, he will have a clear run through the season to try and convince me otherwise.
Westover will be race fit but his chance in any race will always revolve around whether he will settle quickly enough and if there is no confirmed pace angle that makes his jockey’s job infinitely harder. I am surprised connections have not thought of employing a pacemaker for him as given the right conditions, I do think he has another big G1 win in him if he can not waste so much energy early on by pulling…..a strongly run Eclipse for instance could be right up his alley.
Emily Upjohn for me. She would have hacked up over course and distance in the Oaks last year but for fluffing the start and Dettori then taking the scenic route. She looked good at Ascot. And she receives the all important mares allowance.
Adayar’s half-length second to Bay Bridge in the Champion Stakes over an inadequate 1m2f is the best form on offer in this race and I seem to recall him once winning over course and distance the same time of year as this contest?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Will Adayar be running in this though?
I was under the impression that they were prioritising a 10F G1 win for stallion prospects for the early part of the year, so after he makes his debut in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown, surely the POW at Royal Ascot (which I believe is on 21 June) is likely to be his first big target, which is only 19 days after the Coronation Cup.
Is luxembourg going to run?
Thought I read prix ganay and Prince of Wales were his early targets for the season
I have absolutely no idea if any of the entries are going to run.
But he’s got the best form, he won The Derby two years ago and instances of horses getting speedier and needing shorter trips with age to be seen at their best are few and far between.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Is luxembourg going to run?
Thought I read prix ganay and Prince of Wales were his early targets for the season”
Absolutely no idea to be honest, just assumed he would be when I saw his exchange odds were pretty much the same as his price with books, if memory serves me right all four at the head of the market have similar exchange odds to those offered with the bookmakers so went on the assumption that all four will be running.
And yes, Ian Adayar would have been my selection if it weren’t for Luxemburg! Our two choices are way overpriced compared to Weekender and Emily Upjohn imo.
“He said he was happy with most to be fair and all the usual spill but I took “delighted” to be a better term than “happy””
This is the top tier detective work I love on this forum!! I too would echo your take on his comments.
Iv seen prix ganay, tattersalls gold cup and royal ascot mentioned for him
So I’d be thinking he won’t be rocking up
Possible that point Lonsdale will be aidans bullet here
Luxembourg isn’t running.
Adayar has Royal Ascot as the main aim so not certain to take this in.
Westover target not decided yet.
Emily Upjohn will run if she comes to herself (wasn’t ready enough for Meydan).Thanks for that info Mike, is it just me or has this race become worse over the past few years? Maybe it’s just because trainers opt to train their horses for the 1m2f trip (even if they’re derby winning horses) due to stud reasons? Maybe it’s because trainers want to prioritise a mid/late season campaign and it’s harder to keep a horse sound for the full duration of the flat season.
Or maybe I’m just talking out of my ass.
FF Pont Lonsdale 14/1 with Coral could be great value if those at the top of the market don’t run then, but he’s hardly a horse I’d be confident in. Didn’t even realise he was still in training to be honest!
Or Hurricane Lane 20/1, that’s the one that looks the best value if those assumptions are correct.
EDIT – Lone Eagle 66/1 with WilliamHill seems good too at a big price.
Yeah Mike would take a big leap of faith to back him lol, just thinking (typing) out loud and trying to look for ones that will be much shorter on the day if the favourites don’t run.
Trying to turn stayers into 1m2f Group 1 winners is nothing new – I remember Commanche Run’s 4yo campaign in 1985 after winning the St Leger in 1984.
Adayar looks like a big strong progressive horse who improved loads from two to three and is now a proven older horse too.
He’d probably make a banging jumps sire, but they’re desperate to avoid that so, yes, expect numerous attempts at 1m2f this year.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Yeah, that was a shocker on Saturday from HL – I would imagine that the only thing they would say is that while they were looking for slower ground, that ground was extremely testing and in that ground he may simply not have been fit enough to copy with it.
They will likely give a final chance to prove that he still retains his ability but all indications are that the tough races he had during that 3yr old campaign have left a mark….maybe not physically but possibly mentally.
Re Point Lonsdale, he made real hard work of winning his comeback race against a Listed/G3 horse at best and was off the bridle a long way from home and while he looks like he is crying out for a step up to 12F….I don’t think he has any tactical speed and I would be surprised if he didn’t get found out at G1 level over here, but like his brother Broome, there could be plently of chances for him to pick up G1s overseas like in France, Germany & the US for instance.
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