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At present there are five horses in the ante post market and Paddington won’t be a confirmed runner until the weekend. Hardly encouraging for one of the years highlight Group 1s.
The more I know the less I understand.
As self-appointed President of the newly-formed Paddington Eclipse Stakes Moral Tub-Thumping Certainty fan club I’d like to formally announce that this is a foregone conclusion.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Will Luxembourg be Paddington’s pacemaker now and make sure that it turns more tactical to play into Paddington’s speed advantage rather than a test of stamina, which would better suit Emily?
I just think the weight-for-age slightly favours – truly top-class 3yo in this and that’s exactly what Paddington is.
And I’d be surprised if he wasn’t just as good, or even better, over this new longer trip he’s trying.
Emily Upjohn is a talented filly, but she’s a 1m4f horse for me.
Luxembourg had his limitations exposed at Royal Ascot, Anmaat has improved with racing, but doubt he will be quite good enough, ditto Dubai Honour and West Wind Blows can only be running because his owners want free tickets!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Assuming Paddington has recovered sufficiently from Ascot as although he won well Ryan did have to get after him quite a bit in the last 2F and as Mike said on another thread, it is his 4th run in just 9 weeks (this being the 3rd straight at G1 level).
Fair comment.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Maybe they think Paddington is another Giants Causeway who after coming second in both the English and Irish Guineas went on to win the St James Palace House, Eclipse, Sussex, Juddmonte Int. and Irish Champion. Some horse.
The more I know the less I understand.
Paddington should win this, although as LD rightly points out, he’s
had a fair bit racing. If it has taken it’s toll, how often have we
seen the O’Brien 2nd string win, sometimes at a very decent price.
I’ve hoovered all the 20/1 (21) and 19/1 (20) available on the exchange.
Best left is 14/1. Is it unlikely?, probably. Is it worth a go at that price?,
I reckon so.It’s a big price, given it’s not got a massive amount to find, but is it a certain runner?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"In short,no. It depends if O’Brien wants a back-up, which he often
does. There’s a fair amount of rain heading to Sandown, depending
on how much they get and how it effects the ground, stamina could
become a factor. I’m hoping he keeps him in.I can see Luxembourg not running. I imagine he will stay in till we see what the weather does then Paddington may not run. Luxembourg seems better with a wee bit of cut in the ground.
If it rains and Luxembourg is left in and Paddington taken out I’ll be able to hear BigG laughing in Scotland here in Hampshire!
I’m waiting on the 48-hour decs before getting involved in this one.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Paddington has won on all types of ground … Gd, Gd-Sft, Soft and Heavy.
Personally, this horse could be O’Brien’s finest. He’s had many good and very good horses but there’s something about this fella that rings true.
As stated earlier in the thread, I can’t have Paddington beat if he runs.
But it looks to me like a LOT of crossover in connections between him and Luxembourg and if it suited them they’d withdraw either and run the other (or neither!) in a heartbeat.
I’m going to wait.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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