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I have gone for Different League at 8/1 in the Cheveley Park Stakes.
Paddy Power have a book for the race with Clemmie their 5/2 Fav and Heartache 11/4. Threading is next best at 9/2 and Different League is 8/1.
Clemmie didn’t run in the Moyglare because it was soft. That was a 7F race, so will they keep her at 6F now, particularly if the Fillies Mile is the ultimate aim? Clemmie’s last win has seen only 1 win from 17 runs and Nyaleti lost her next two races. Clemmie also ran behind Different League when the French filly won the Albany at Royal Ascot.
Heartache beating Havana Grey puts her right in the picture from a form perspective but I just wonder about 6F at Newmarket for a Queen Mary/Flying Childers winner? Stable are red-hot though 13/26 50% the last fortnight.
Threading managed to avoid the Johnston race 1 to race 2 curse that was last seen with Dream Today putting in a poor effort after being heavily backed last Saturday. She ran out a good winner and has scope for putting more meat on her light looking frame as she grows up. She could be anything but again the Johnston factor makes you wonder somewhat.
Madeline is decent but has to reverse form with both Threading and Different League from earlier races.
A huge factor could be the fact that the Rockfel is the day before the Cheveley Park and most of the main contenders are entered in both races. Heartache surely won’t go for the Rockfel (Not currently entered) but Clemmie and Threading could possibly go.
Different League only holds the Cheveley Park entry and the trainer confirmed that the race is her target. He has never had a runner at Newmarket before and it’s surely a sign that he thinks she’s in with a serious shout. He stated that he is excited about taking her over. Having won in the UK before is encouraging as well.
Different League won the Albany and it’s generally worked out well. Alpha Centauri was a bust in the Moyglare but it was pretty bad ground that day. The two colts who pushed the French filly into third in the Morny are very speedy and that was a Group 1 contest. For me, 8/1 looks far too big and I cannot see her lining up at those odds. She has a lot less to worry about ante-post than most of these and I feel she is the one at the correct odds to place a bet on.
The trainer had this to say last week:-
Matthieu Palussiere, trainer of Different League, said:
“The Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes is definitely the target for Different League – she will be my first runner at Newmarket.”
“She ran very well in the Prix Morny and could easily have finished second. She has been doing very well since then – she’s a fine big, strong filly with a great nature and she looks a picture at the moment.”
“The Morny is run over an easy six furlongs, and I think that the stiffer course at Newmarket will be better for her. She handles most ground and if it came up soft it wouldn’t worry me.”
Freddy Head has considered Polydream for the race but feels 6F may be too sharp and wouldn’t like to see her outpaced.
Different League 8/1 seems decent value with many bases covered according to current reports.Good luck if you are having a go on this race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Will have an early go on take me with you, behind different league, but something must have been amiss due to being absent afterwards until 2 weeks back
Wont mind a bit of juice in the ground should their be any and the last run likely a prep for this??
Cant have clemmie, i dont like the form and shes all hype as of now, although ryan choosing her the othwr week does suggest shes the #1 2yo filly
Heartache better at 5
Different league has the form in the book and like you say i think 8/1 is a steal should she show
Take me with you at 12s
DIfferent league at 8sI may be totally wrong about clemmie but if she shows and is very short ill likely lay her.
O’Brien has hinted Clemmie may run in the Cheveley Park
Racing Post hasn’t got Clemmie enter for the Rockfel, Steve…..?Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
O’Brien has hinted Clemmie may run in the Cheveley Park
Racing Post hasn’t got Clemmie enter for the Rockfel, Steve…..?ATR shows Clemmie in both races Nathan. She would run with a 3 lb penalty in the Rockfel though and perhaps that may be why they prefer the Cheveley Park.
I prefer my horses to run at 7F before the end of the season and with the intention to run in the Moyglare seemed the logical progression. I am not keen on the jump straight from 6F to a mile. One distance is very much speed and the other getting to as far as you really want to be going with a 2yo.
Take Me With You hosed in last time but it was a low key affair she was entitled to win easily, with the runner up rated 67 and the 3rd 62 now. I think Noseda is eyeing the Breeders Cup with her and she’s clearly decent on a 100 Rating, but I feel she needs to find 10 lbs with Different League.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jeremy Noseda’s Frankel filly Betty F is also quoted for this race, at 16/1, after her winning debut. This is a tough assignment straight from a class 4 Novice Stakes race though. Betty F was also getting 8 lbs from the runner up in that race and it’s an awful long way from a 78 RPR against Group winning fillies.
I would say there is little value in Betty F at 16/1 when you think where Different League lies form wise and can be backed at 8/1.
Betty F is promising but if she were mine I wouldn’t ask her to fly this high so soon. The way she won last time also suggested that the 7F Rockfel, where she holds an entry, would be the better option if they do fast track her to Group company.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
another five pound bet after five hours of research eh Steve? 😉
No offence intended to steve when i say this
But it dosent take 5 hours to analyse a race and take a position lol
With the racing post app you could have a strong position on a race in 10-15 minutes
If you dont analyse races like steve has even for a £5 bet what is it your betting on? Names? Lol
My point is that Steve isn’t telling the truth when he claims to be a small stakes punter.
and if you are doing the amount of research he clearly is, and putting the amount of time in, and doing well to a level stake, then surely it’s an utter waste to bet so little.
I mean just to write out the original post must have taken at least 20 minutes.
My point is that Steve isn’t telling the truth when he claims to be a small stakes punter.
and if you are doing the amount of research he clearly is, and putting the amount of time in, and doing well to a level stake, then surely it’s an utter waste to bet so little.
I mean just to write out the original post must have taken at least 20 minutes.
As ive said before i like to lay, thats my area of horse racing, since joining this forum ive found it a bit enjoyable to do the opposite and have a bit of fun posting who i punt… i tend to focus on maidens i find that most enjoyable…. when i punt i rarely go into 3 figures, sometimes i only have small stakes and am prone to just have the odd tenner here or their from time to time
But wether im punting a tenner or £100 i study it the exact same way, we all have our ways of studying it i just mean i goto the same depth, the stake is irrelevant to how much studying is done
Maybe thats why you find steve is having more success than you
But again without sounding negative to steve, the difference between steve and most good punters is he takes the time to write up his thoughts, most just post the selection, but dont let that make you think any less work has went in from someone who takes the time to type up their entire process to those who just say a name…
What im saying is if he sais he punts small, he probably does, some people find the studying the enjoyable part with the ain to have small stakes for enjoyment
another five pound bet after five hours of research eh Steve? 😉
Middle Park Stakes 30th September Sands Of Mali (First available Odds)
Also same horse 2000 Guineas 50/1
£10 win first bet and £2 win second bet.
If you want to know why, just ask.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
“the stake is irrelevant to how much studying is done”
Not sure how much studying is done comes into it. It’s whether you are successful or not.
Surely if you are winning to a level stake, and seem to be a high-class tipster like Steve is, it’s a waste if you are only betting £12 as Steve claims to in above post?
I mean no wonder the bookies are always winning if even the skillful punters aren’t taking advantage of that fact.
Sometimes it takes longer to write the post than making the selection.
In the case of Sands Of Mali, I had already written on here that he was a similar profile to Ribchester for Fahey. I mooted there that Mill Reef, or even Middle Park would be his next race. Fahey said that the Middle Park was his target and old adversary Invincible Army is 4/1 Fav for the Mill Reef, so a win for him in that race would be a huge boost for Sands Of Mali. I am relying on Unfortunately, recently purchased by The Cheveley Park Stud, to make the odds for Sands Of Mali.
If we were talking about the Ayr Gold Cup though, it would take ages to dissect the race fully.
Invincible Army has already boosted Sands Of Mali by winning the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton. I have therefore bet Invincible Army for the Mill Reef at 4/1. Gingertipster said that he had been disappointed in Invincible Army but perhaps he just met a really good sort in Sands Of Mali. Invincible Army actually broke the track record at Kempton last time and he looks Group 2 material at least.
Richard Fahey does not see Sands Of Mali as a pure sprinter and given that Ribchester placed in the Guineas after campaigning at 6F during his 2yo season, I felt it worth a small bet for fun at 50’s. That Guineas betting is loaded with no hopers at shorter odds.
Sometimes in life you do get people sharing things they have read and trying to help keep people informed, without the need for financial gain. It’s the way a community on a forum should work really. If the purpose were to simply be seen to be getting winners then I doubt anyone would post their reasoning or analyse the race afterwards. No serious punter would want to let others know why they picked a winner.
Anyway, Fahey’s comments are reproduced here:-
“The Middle Park Stakes is the target for Sands Of Mali, who is really well,” said the Malton handler. “I am very happy with him and wouldn’t swap him for anything else in the race “He put up a solid performance in the Gimcrack and that race has done him the world of good. “It’s helped him grow up and he’s exactly where we want him at the moment. “In the long run, I don’t necessarily see Sands Of Mali as a sprinter. He’s a big, strong, galloping horse who is just talented. “He will go on any ground and it wouldn’t worry me if it rode soft at Newmarket because he won at Nottingham on quite testing ground.”
Other bet is:-
Mill Reef Stakes Invincible Army 4/1Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sometimes it takes longer to write the post than making the selection.
Thats what i was basically getting at to begin with
And also judge
“the stake is irrelevant to how much studying is done”
Not sure how much studying is done comes into it. It’s whether you are successful or not.
Surely if you are winning to a level stake, and seem to be a high-class tipster like Steve is, it’s a waste if you are only betting £12 as Steve claims to in above post?
I mean no wonder the bookies are always winning if even the skillful punters aren’t taking advantage of that fact.
youv answered your own question….
Highs and lows….. highs and lows
I understand Steve has his worshippers on here which is understandable as he seems to have the Ante-post game down pat, but ham you seem to be misinterpreting what I am getting at. I have not “answered my own question” as you seem to imply.
If you are a successful punter, which Steve seems to be, why are you wasting your time betting fivers and tenners?
I’m just struggling to understand the motivation here. Why put in so much time, becoming skillful at something which requires an incredible level of skill it would seem to win at, (after all most punters are betting at a huge disadvantage) and then not take advantage of that fact?
Either Steve is on the wind-up, possibly doesn’t have the personality to bet in large amounts, is lying about how much he bets or I don’t know what. Anyway the whole thing is very odd.
Sometimes in life you do get people sharing things they have read and trying to help keep people informed, without the need for financial gain. It’s the way a community on a forum should work really. If the purpose were to simply be seen to be getting winners then I doubt anyone would post their reasoning or analyse the race afterwards. No serious punter would want to let others know why they picked a winner.
Sorry missed this part.
But steve, why aren’t you a serious punter? after all you seem to do well. And why do you want to help keep people informed, is it because of a boost to your ego or some other reason? I would like to know.
Invincible Army has already boosted Sands Of Mali by winning the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton. I have therefore bet Invincible Army for the Mill Reef at 4/1. Gingertipster said that he had been disappointed in Invincible Army but perhaps he just met a really good sort in Sands Of Mali. Invincible Army actually broke the track record at Kempton last time and he looks Group 2 material at least.
No, you’ve interpreted what I said wrongly, Steve. Did not say Invincible Army has “disappointed” me at all. I think he’s done well and is a horse I like a lot. Just question his distance/surface requirements
I said after the Gimcrack:
Been following Invincible Army this season, owes me quite a bit. I’m now wondering whether he quite gets 6f?
Won’t surprise me if we see him next in the Flying Childers or Cornwallis over 5f.
I didn’t know the horse beat the track record at Kempton, but that makes plenty of sense to me. Conditions there obviously conducive to favouring speed horses that day. Invincible Army travels so well at 6f he possibly needs fast conditions to stay 6f or alternatively needs an all weather surface to be able to quicken/show his best.
Value Is EverythingJudge, have you seen steves p/l? No…. then you have no idea how he does, he succesfully tips some winners yes
By answering your own question what im saying is if you bet small stakes, wheb your on a high, great, you win a little
When you hit a low, who cares you only bet small anyway
Thats generally why people bet smallUnless you know steves p/l for many years you couldnt say its be worthwhile betting big stakes on top of that im sure he does have success…. to bet big you have to be able to withstand riding the low points, where you got 10/15/20 big bets without a winner, most people prefer to not have the risk…
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