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I reckon Hindu Kush @ 12-1 has a decent chance in this. Has been bought up by the same connections that specifically bought Bulwark to win this last year and once again Jim Crowley is up to ride.
Is quite high in the weights, but looks a stoute stayer and quite classy so if he is capable of much better than his 104 rating IMO so although high could still be well in at the weights and most of the field look to be within 7obs of him anyway. I’d expect that if he wins this or even goes close he will be firmly in the reckoning for the Ascot Gold Cup.
Warsaw Pact appears well fancied and Hits Only Vic and Som Tala make some appeal also.
Am gutted as Chester is my favorite meeting of the entire year and have never had a bad one, but am away all of this and next week working so have to miss the lot…
Hits Only Vic jumps out at me initially but I’ll have a more thorough look through this tomorrow
It’ll be Tilt and Daarhem for me.
The Ellison/Moore combination is very eyecatching as is the low draw. Tilt has been running below par other than in an AW 1m2f in November. This could be perfect for Tilt to return to top form.
As for Daarhem, it’s Barry Hills isnt it. And a low draw. Enough said
Warsaw Pact is fit from jumping and his rating is 129 as opposed to 89 on the flat so could be well in and will stay the trip.
Does anyone fancy Desert Sea? Thought I’d have an ew at 16/1. Not sure what the going is like for tomorrow.
Halla San for me in this. Fahey still in reasonable form and Halla San has run well in these staying handicaps before(Northumberland plate last year). He is more battle hardened than the likes of Amerigo. Halla San is also reasonably drawn and ran well at the Ayr Scottish National meeting when only an inspired AP McCoy ride beat him. 12-1 will do me.
Reasons for betting on a fair number of them, but I’m plumping for two horses mentioned at one time or another in relation to the Melbourne Cup:
Carte Diamond, whose connections, I believe, had been very keen on his chances, before he got quite badly injured in a freak accident, I believe.
The other one is Ajaan, who has only run on galloping tracks, and I didn’t see Cecil’s name on the admittedly shortish list of trainers of previous winners, given in the RP. However, he once returned an RP speed figure of 90 in a race a couple of years ago, and Nick Mordin commented at the time in his blog, that he looked a good prospect for the Melbourne Cup.
I fear Downhiller has a kind of hard form look about him and is being touted by a lot of shrewdies, and Hindu Kush. But then again, there’s ……
Henry Cecil seems to have a good record at Chester. Just how important is the draw in a race of this distance? Am I right in thinking that last year all winners were drawn really low?
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I think
Star Rover
(1.45) and
Simple Solution
(2.15) are being vastly underestimated in the first two races, but
Double Banded
(2.45) and
Sohraab
(3.15) will be my main interests for the day.
Ian Williams paid 37,000 gns for Double Banded last October and I can only imagine that the lack of a recent run means he’s been trained with this race in mind. I still have my doubts as to how well he’ll see out the trip, but bottom weight can only help in that respect and there’s some hope of a little improvement from him.
I think Sohraab is generally a horse to catch fresh, but he ran supremely well behind Chief Editor last time and should find conditions ideal here. He’s a strong traveller, has pace to aim at and shouldn’t have any problems with the demands of the course.
I think we’ll be going head to head in the final furlong of the sprint, Equi.
My pick for the race is
Strike Up The Band
. I’ve liked this one for a while and cant understand how Dandy hasnt managed to get this one to win a massive race yet (off the top of my head).
His best effort to date was with Yutaka Take on board in the Shergar Cup! He won that day but….well….it was the Shergar Cup. Crimson Fern ran no kind of race that day.
Strike Up The Band ran fantastic in both runnings of the Prix L’Abbeye last year and undoubtably has more quality than he has shown thus far. I’m of the opinion that he’s best on rain softened good ground so am hoping for a bit of rain before the meeting tomorrow.
In the Chester Oaks, look no further than
Roses for the Lady
. She will appreciate the good ground tomorrow and she ran a great race in her maiden victory last time out, albeit only winning by a short head. She beat O’Brien’s runner Perfect Truth, an O’Brien ‘hotpot’ Roman Empress and a decent Prendergast runner Jakarta Jazz there.
This is John Oxx’s only entry of the day and Mick Kinane’s only ride of the day. Need I say more?
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Ian Williams paid 37,000 gns for Double Banded last October and I can only imagine that the lack of a recent run means he’s been trained with this race in mind.
According to the Sporting Life, he was bought specifically with this race in mind.
Downhiller looks a typical Dunlop improving stayer, and though he had to fight to win a decent Ripon handicap lto, that was against the promising Wells Lyrical, with the rest not in the same race.
2lb well in here, has a decent draw, and with track, going, and distance all in his favour, should at least make the first 4.As is my wont, I wrote out the past 15 winners, but I think there is little to be gained from writing them out here.
Like a couple of other people here I thought a low draw is useful in this race, but it doesn’t seem to be necessary.
Draw (most recent first)
11, 16, 1, 15, 4, 2, 7, 5, 4, 13, 9, 6, 12, 15, 5.There have been 3 repeat winners in that period, so it might be useful looking at horses that have been placed in the past couple of seasons.
Last 10 Damsires have been Bustino, Shirley Heights, Rainbow Quest, Blakeney, Blakeney, Reference Point, Troy, Dancing Brave, The Minstrel and Dancing Brave, but the 1m4f G1 pattern isn’t followed before that.
I was wanting to chuck out the 4yos, mainly I suppose because I am prejudiced and they are short prices. 4yos have won 4 of the last 15, with 75 runners, which is okay. Interestingly, this is what the 4yos have done, when one of them won it:
First 2 (from 6 runners)
First 3 (from 7 runners)
First 2 (from only 2 runners)
First 5 (from 8 runners)[edit: Maybe the H’capper underestimates the previous season’s 3yo stayers’ form, and this is the race when he finds out his mistake.]
There are 4 of them this year, so I am going to put them in a combination forecast. Just for good measure, I’ll put them in a combination Tricast. Rather than putting them all in one combination Tricast, I suppose the thing to do is 4 of them, with a different horse left out each time, and a different horse placed first, to take advantage of Bookies bonus.
In terms of weight, the two highest weights were carried by repeat winners. After that, the two highest weights happened in the past two runnings – 9-4 and 9-2.
The topweight Macorville seems harshly treated, as his rating is based on just one performance, when he finished behind Yeats in the Irish St Leger in 2007, and he didn’t run last season.In terms of win bets, I am happy with my ante-bet on Ajaan. He is on the same rating as when winning at N’ket last May.
The other win bet I will place just before the off. It will be on Double Banded. He was beaten over 8 lengths in 4th last year. He made headway 6f out, and made an effort 6 wide on the bend 2f out before weakening. I am assuming that it is those two moves, rather than the fact that he didn’t stay that led to him weakening. Also he was a 4yo last year, so that gives him an excuse as well. Double Banded is rated 1 lb lower than last year.
edit: I changed my mind, and decided to take the Double Banded price now, as I was fairly happy with 24 or so, and I was thinking it might be the Pricewise horse. Unfortunately in the last half hour or so, he has contracted to 18.
What about this Som Tala – he will stay the trip – remeber he went close at Cheltenham festival a couple of years ago
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Daraahem trained by Hills who seemsto be winning evrything has won on the course but well beaten on this ground twice.
One that will go on the ground is Downhiller. John Dunlop’s horses are running really well so I am having a small EW at the best price I can find.
Gala evening seemsto always run well whether it be over hurdles AW or turf. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him run into a place.
My three against the field here are:
Desert Sea – off a lifetime high mark, but Kempton win suggests he’s in good heart. Kempton to Chester seems a reasonable route with only a light tune up needed in between.
Gala Evening – sound form from Kempton, see the theme? Consistent on the flat and over hurdles, so should be as competitive as any.
Double Banded – looks targeted at this race to me and I’ve felt for a while that he has a decent long distance handicap in him.Rob
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