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Yes, Tidal Bay travelled strongly after he made those 2 early errors
I was surprised when I read in today’s RP (actually bought it for once) that he will now definitely go for the Ryanair. I didn’t think it was such a clearcut decision as that, what with the ground yesterday.
Similar to you gerald, I bought the RP today too (a nightmare 3 hour bus journey home from my old dears ahead of me, I needed something remotely interesting)! Howard Johnson sounded quite bullish about the Ryanair. I think pretty much most of yesterdays "festival trials" should be treated with caution. The ground at both Cheltenham and Doncaster looked bad and I have seen bumpers run at more of a gallop than some of the races.
I can think of 12 good reasons why Master Minded is not the Cheltenham banker that many Forumites imagine him to be: The fences. How many times in the past have we seen supposedly ‘good things’ come to grief at one or other of those tricky fences,especially when they are usually travelling at breakneck speed into them. Moscow Flyer readily springs to mind to name but one.
I’m not saying that Master Minded is bomb-proof but the Ryanair is pulling all the legitimate challengers (VPU & Tidal Bay) away from the Champion Chase.
I actually can’t think of any other "good thing" apart from MF that fell at the Festival (technically MF unseated). Some have been beaten by a better horse on the day but none that fell.
And perhaps Black Jack Ketchum (2007 World Hurdle), even if not all of us agreed he was a good thing and subsequent events suggested he wasn’t.
And I remember a last hurdle faller in the Supreme Novices that was well fanced – Like A Butterfly.
Like A Butterfly won the Supreme in 2002 AP. It was Adamant Approach who fell at the last when upsides and looking the likely winner.
apracing
Like-A-Butterfly won the Supreme Novices in 2002 – Adamant Approach fell at the last when cantering all over everything in that race.
I remember cos I had Like-A-Butterfly in my Lucky15 that day – got 3 up out of the 4 (Istabraq let me down)
I actually can’t think of any other "good thing" apart from MF that fell at the Festival (technically MF unseated). Some have been beaten by a better horse on the day but none that fell.
Nick Dundee
Lee
Adamant Approach fell at the last, Like-A-Butterfly won (in case people got confused)
I think the only one confused is me Irish!
I was trying to point out that it can work the other way, with the good thing winning due to something else falling. But somewhere between brain and screen, that got hopelessly lost ……….
I’m not sure if it was you AP but someone did an analysis of all horses who started at less than 2/1 at the Festival in the past 10 years in the "Guide" one year- it didn’t make pretty reading: the words "Cheltenham" and "banker" shouldn’t be in the same sentence IMO.
Last 5 Festivals, 47 horses have started at less than 3/1 at the Festival.
LSP is
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From memory, 2003 was a good year for short-priced favourite backers cos I think about 4 won
Still more mileage in taking them on IMO
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From memory, 2003 was a good year for short-priced favourite backers cos I think about 4 won
That year was a bloodbath for the bookmakers and – a more cynical person might suggest – part of the imperative why it suddenly became safer to over-water for future festivals.
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