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I’m a relative newcomer to racing (4 years) but has there ever been a year where 4 horses seem to be absolute bankers for the 4 big races at the Cheltenham festival?
Binnocular, Master Minded, Punchestown & Denman would destroy their opposition on any known form (Denman being the only doubt coming back from his heart problems).
Have there been years gone by when this has appeared to be the case or are we in in a golden era of select superstars where they are absolutely nailed on Cheltenham winners?
I think Messrs. Hill, Done, Dennis etc. will testify to the effect that some of their best holidays have been courtesy of four and five banker material at Cheltenham.
There are a lot of us who have been writing or thinking that the Champion Hurdle Trials are different friom the Champion Hurdle itself. Small fields, lack of pace, different ground, different finish. Maybe we are deluding ourselves, because we just want to find a big-priced winner, but many of us are older, and have seen most of it before,
edit: I’ve had a bet on deleted.
Master Minded looks a complete banker for cheltenham but the rest Im not 100% on.
Punchestowns, I thought looked complete banker material a few weeks ago but Nicholls is practically shouting from the rooftops that Big Bucks is the one to be on, Punchestowns looks to have more improvement to come but the staying hurdling division has looked like tripe for a lot of years now so what Punchestowns beat last time is unknown, he does look to have plenty of improvement about him though. Once Big Bucks is put to bed I’ll be more confident about Punchestowns.
Denman will never be banker material as long as heart problems are reported and Kauto Star is in opposition.
Binocular is about as far from Banker Material as any of the short prices at cheltenahm are concerned, and I backed him at much bigger price. I have covered myself off with better staying types because I honestly think Binocular is going to get turned over this year. He has had everything go in his favour on both his starts this season but despite being a huge fan of the horse, in terms of his raw ability, I can for a second see him winning.
I suggested in the unfair Paul Nicholls hypocrite thread that Big Bucks might be aimed at the Stayers’ Hurdle, but no one responded to it.But am I right in saying that no horse has ever regained the Gold Cup thus making a fit Denman a banker?
Last year I was firmly told that no 5yo had ever won the champ chase, and the vast majority of people went against their owns eyes on that basis to oppose masterminded in favour of clearly inferior horses. People also said lasty year about 5yos not winning the champ hurdle, yet this year everyone is banking on a 5yo winning the same race.
Trends are there to be shot at, Kauto Star and Denman are excpetional horses, and KS didnt look 100% when beaten last year, where I think Denman is more suited to cheltenham than kauto, we havent seen denman for 10 months and he has been reported to have heart problems. If Denamn fails to deliver at cheltenham, kauto is surely next in line to replace him, reagrdless of any trends that say otherwise, that is just as simple as it gets. I would be favouring War Of Attrition myself but then i just couldnt bring myself to back either Kauto or Denman at their prices.
This years GC looks much more open than last years, or the year befores, and that in itself should mean a better line up than the last two years which were almost penalty kicks for the winners on the day due to the weakness of their fields, and the failure of any serious challengers to oppose on each of their days.
Realistically though, the first two in the betting will be very hard to beat, and are a mile clear of opposition, but sometimes everything can fall right for certain horses, and with no horses turning up in the last few years GCs, who knows what difference a competetive field could bring.
Bulwark, I am suffering from a memory loss. Who are these horses who decided to give Kauto Star and Denman a swerve, and either ran in another Cheltenham race, or missed the Festival altogether?
I agree with you regarding MM bucking the trend last year because I too backed him to win on the day but has there been many other class 5 year olds contesting the champion chase in recent years?
I was against Katchit last year due to the 5 year old jinx over the years but this year I’m convinced that it will be a poor renewal. Binnocular only has to show up and he wins if only because he is one of the most fluent hurdle jumpers I have ever seen with the speed too match.
Denman – doubts over health
Binocular – has yet to meet a field of fully tuned up, start to finish Champion Hurdle types
Punchestown – one race wonder at the minuteMaster Minded – the only one of the quartet I’d rate absolute stone cold, stonker, baker material of the quartet.
Denman – doubts over health
Binocular – has yet to meet a field of fully tuned up, start to finish Champion Hurdle types
Punchestown – one race wonder at the minuteMaster Minded – the only one of the quartet I’d rate absolute stone cold, stonker, baker material of the quartet.
Perhaps Punchestowns has only proved himself in one race but apart from Kasbah Bliss and Inglis Drever (if fit), should we really fear any other staying hudler given the way he has dominated in his two races this season?
I think Punchestowns is open to further improvement and will take all the beating come March (barring a fairytale comeback by Inglis Drever).
Binocular – strong CH field this year and whilst he looks top class there is still a lingering doubt about him getting up the hill. Brilliant chance though.
Master Minded – wins, easily.
Punchestowns – looks the business but no certainty with KB in the field.
Denman – no horse is a banker with Kauto Star in the same field. Add to that Denman’s dodgy ticker and he is a genuine concern at this moment in time.
Master Minded -baker material of the quartet.
I thought the ease of his victory
rather embarrassing
and felt the horse knew it
and was showing off.on the other hand
Mack’s loaves and fishes
may mean we’ve found ObamaBack them all in an accumulator if you think they are all certainties blacker but I warn you its the quickest way to the poor house.
Master Minded – Yes. Unless the ground comes up fast or he beats himself with jumping errors he wins he’s so far clear of everything else. Genuine good / fast ground would be a concern. People blamed the trip for his defeat at Aintree last season but I didn’t think he was ever really happy that day on the sound surface.
Binocular – Was beaten at Cheltenham last season. He has never proved he truely gets up that hill and with Celestial Halo having a pacemaker this is not going to be a soft / slow paced Champion Hurdle. Not only is Binocular going to have to show his usual speed he’s also going to have to show he really stay and possibly show real guts and resolution that as yet he’s never shown / needed to show. A worthy favourite yes but a banker? not for me.
Punchestowns – Has won one race at the trip. It hardly makes him a certainty for the World Hurdle. Kasbah Bliss has better overall form in terms of top class / championship races. Its arguable that Punchestowns is a false favourite he certainly shouldn’t be the price he is. Big Bucks is totally unexposed as a staying hurdler but is a big tough horse who I can see being well suited to World Hurdle conditions.
Denman – With Kauto Star around he’s never going to be a certainty. Added to that we don’t know for certain how Denman is going to return following his heart problems. If the ground is faster than last year it will also put less emphasis on stamina. Kauto isn’t the only danger Neptune Collonges, Albertas Run I wouldn’t rule out either and though I don’t really think Exotic Dancer is a Gold Cup type of horse he’s absolutely top class and if he runs to his peak form he’s no impossible winner.
I’ll bet you something now blacker – Denman, Master Minded, Punchestowns, Binocular – they won’t ALL win infact I’d be surprised if at least two of them don’t get turned over.
I suppose if you consider how many fences and hurdles in total for your four certainties (don’t know the average) it’s a penny to a pound that at least one of those obstacles is likely to prove troublesome for at least one of the four.
Combine that with how many opponents in total could cause some interference to one of your certainties and you’re set for at least one major upset. Of the four, I can see at least two down the pan.
However, given that my betting success over the years is pathetic, maybe you’re on to a good thing backing all four.
I suggested in the unfair Paul Nicholls hypocrite thread that Big Bucks might be aimed at the Stayers’ Hurdle, but no one responded to it.
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