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If i’m wrong feel free to appologise at your leisure :biggrin:
Hope it ain’t changed again :o
Hi Goldophin
I love you.
The market does get it right as a whole, just like bookmakers should make an overall profit.
Having a keen sense of value will enable the a successful punter to exploit the few golden opportunities.
byefrom<br>carlisle
(Edited by carlisle at 8:54 pm on Oct. 12, 2006)
Quote: from davidbrady on 8:39 pm on Oct. 12, 2006[br]Hi Godolphin. Welcome to the forum.<br>Have you met jackane24 yet?:argue:
My thoughts exactly, beat me to it. <br>Someone ought to explain about the Ballydoyle groupie, or write an article maybe? ;)
Hello, anybody from the real planet out there! Betfred used to give Treble Odds, Hills And Ladbrokes Were and still are unless it has changed again, in response to totesport offering treble odds. Rory visit a betting shop ;)<br>
<br>I’ll say this slowly. Online, Betfred DO give treble the odds. Hills, Ladbrokes and Totesport DON’T give treble the odds. Certain independent betting shops DO give treble the odds. Ladbrokes, Hills and Totesport DON’T except in specific geographical locations.
Incidentally, I’ve been in more betting shops than you’ve had hot dinners UN. No offence intended, but the truth must out.
Rory, Betfred stopped doing Treble odds, or at least on my account. Offline i got treble odds @ Ladbrokes in Devon last week. I placed a similar bet in WH who have it chalked on their board they now give Treble odds and to the best of my knowledge i have been getting treble odds at totesport.:biggrin: Help me i’m in the twilight zone :biggrin: I have just been scouring those threes online sites for assistance but i can’t find any info. Maybe they are to fall in line but just aren’t advertising the fact? Either that or it’s too late for me:biggrin:
What cannot be underestimated is the effect of Betfair over the last three or four years. The market has always been a very accurate guide to a horse’s chance, but Betfair has made it significantly more accurate.
The tissue is no longer compiled by a few (very good) judges. It is effectively compiled the day beforehand by hundreds, if not thousands, of very good judges.
These days, the right horses generally start favourite, and they do so at the right price. This is the main reason why there is not a single national newspaper tipster in the Racing Post Press Challenge who can beat a blind bet on the favourite over the course of a year.
:( Looking bad for me, looks like Freds changed his mind, gonna have to email him to find out for sure :o
I’m pretty sure that BetFred are still the only firm who generally give three times the odds for a single winner on a Lucky 15, though certain punters may be restricted…
Fred Done recently claimed that it costs them around £2 million a year, but they use it as a loss leader.
(Edited by Mr Frisk at 9:45 pm on Oct. 12, 2006)
Hell looks like they were just being generous then, going in for an eye test as well :biggrin:
Quote: from Ultimate Nightmare on 9:38 pm on Oct. 12, 2006[br]:(  Looking bad for me, looks like Freds changed his mind, gonna have to email him to find out for sure :o <br>
Looks like i have egg on my face, i stopped betting as often when i thought the concession had been stopped. I am truely astonished at the result of a email to Fred. I can assure everyone that the offline bookmakers in question were also offering the treble odds. Rory you obviously wasn’t saying it sloooooowly enough for me ;).
Excellent point, MR F. I think you have accurately identified the main reason why it is so difficult to beat the odds at SP. The SP market is now so efficient, or perfectly competitive(as economists say) that the prices at the off are about as good a guide to probability of winning as you can get.
Betfair and other exchanges have made a difference, but probably not as much as is generally supposed. The SP market was quite efficient in the days when it was tax-free and off- course punters were paying 9%.
The winning punter has to bet at prevailing odds that are, on average, better than SP in order to get any sort of an edge. But this is nothing new; it has always been the case. It still needs to be stated from time to time.
Hi
I totally agree, concentrating on SP’s is like walking around with a bucket with a hole in it.
You will not take much water home.
byefrom<br>carlisle
(Edited by carlisle at 6:59 pm on Oct. 13, 2006)
wherever you care to look, the average loss for those betting at SP is about 10%. This is true for the Racing post naps competitions and has been fairly constant for many years.
It is also true for the scores of tipping lines monitored by Relayline over the past 6 years.
Pretty dismal reading, really. But a hard fact of betting life.
Hi Goldolphin
moi?
I feel the whole idea of a thread is catch someone drift and explore it.  There will be twists and turns, backtracking, but hopefully in the end some advancement.  This might mean chucking the idea in the bin.
We seemed to be getting very bogged down with SP’s.
Not you!
If I was to give you 8 factors that I think are important when studying horse racing form, would you put them into order. And then divide 173 point amongst them, please.
Jockey<br>Recent Form<br>Distance of the Race<br>Going<br>Trainer<br>Speed Rating<br>Course<br>Ability of the Horse
I am interested to see if it matches my evaluation.
byefrom<br>carlisle
<br>(Edited by carlisle at 2:19 pm on Oct. 14, 2006)<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 8:51 am on Oct. 15, 2006)
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