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I’m not sure what you mean by "missing out horses" Carlisle. But bookmakers don’t "have to price up every horse in every race" and often don’t. Each firm has a different policy when it comes to which races they will be pricing up in the morning. Unless you’re talking about show prices in which case it’s not the case of each firm pricing each horse, it’s about taking an off-course show which is uniform throughout the industry (excepting Blue Square of course).
Hi Shadow Leader
I don’t mean morning prices.
I think that in some races there are say 2 or 3 live contenders.<br>Yet bookies can compelled to give every horse a price.
Is there such a thing as a horse with a genuine 16/1 chance of winner?
Only if the other horses are similarly priced.
byefrom<br>carlisle
<br>(Edited by carlisle at 12:52 pm on Oct. 10, 2006)<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 12:53 pm on Oct. 10, 2006)
Betlarge, I was the world’s shortest goalkeeper – used to get lobbed from the edge of the six yard box. Dislocated my shoulder saving a backpass from my bloody rightback once, the following season backpasses were outlawed – can’t be coincidence.
Carlisle,
no point in you trying to pinpoint Bookmakers’ weaknesses if you’re going to trot out crap like that. Have a look at a few of the maiden races today where there only two or three live runners. Or in the case of the opener at Leicester, one live contender!!
Hi Rory
I dislike you already.
It’s clear to me that we have a differing understanding of the word "contenders".
In most maiden races I would consider nearly all the runners as contenders.
The form tends to be moderate, and any selection will be very vunerable to improvers and debutants.
byefrom<br>carlisle
Quote: from carlisle on 8:41 pm on Oct. 10, 2006[br]Hi Rory
I dislike you already.
:biggrin:
(Edited by Perpetual at 9:04 pm on Oct. 10, 2006)
Carlise, if the bookies haven’t offered an early price then they haven’t priced up the race .. they will be just laying everything at SP.
Personally, I think any chinks in the bookies armour is massively out weighed by the gaping holes in that of the majority of punters.
Any advantage the punter might have over the bookie is so small that the amount of money that you would have to bet to make any meaningful amount of profit would see you banned after a couple of wins, as Seagul rightly points out.
Hi dave jay
thanks for the bucket of cold water.
However it’s only served to refresh me!
Bookies have numerous weaknesses.
A moving disguised target is very difficult to hit.
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 10:31 pm on Oct. 10, 2006)
That’s great carlisle .. not listening to anybody and groping around for imaginary edges must be the road to riches.
With EC binned, I’m the only serial loser on here, so you need to ignore me.
Hi dave jay
oh no I do listen and do like a good grope.
What does EC mean.
I try to produce my own odds, and in doing so I feel that a lot of horses don’t desrve a price.
Adding up all the scores and dividing the individual score by this number, must be a flawed method…..
A 6/4 chance is not worth backing unless it seems to have a 60%+ chance of winning.  The rest of the runners have to divide up the remaining 40%. Esstential they should not be able to dent the the top rated horse.
I am very interested in friendly discussions.
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 8:14 pm on Dec. 21, 2006)
Quote: from dave jay on 9:19 pm on Oct. 10, 2006[br]Carlise, if the bookies haven’t offered an early price then they haven’t priced up the race .. they will be just laying everything at SP.
Personally, I think any chinks in the bookies armour is massively out weighed by the gaping holes in that of the majority of punters.
Any advantage the punter might have over the bookie is so small that the amount of money that you would have to bet to make any meaningful amount of profit would see you banned after a couple of wins, as Seagull rightly points out.<br>
Well then, if your a serial loser at punting , why not become a bookie???
SHL
carlisle,
A 41% chance for a 6/4 would be good enough for most people.
I’m not sure where you are coming from with some of your points, but your interest shows you are on the learning curve, at least. The bit you are on at the moment is very steep indeed, so watch where you are putting your climbing grips.
SirHarryLewis .. why on earth would I want to turn my hobby into a job when I already have one of those .. ?
Stemming the amount that you lose is a good starting point, well for me it is anyway.
Quote: from dave jay on 9:52 am on Oct. 11, 2006[br]SirHarryLewis .. why on earth would I want to turn my hobby into a job when I already have one of those .. ?
Stemming the amount that you lose is a good starting point, well for me it is anyway.
I tend to agree.
SHL
Hi Artemis
41% you want to move your feet a bit you will get pins & needles, and mind that hole.
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 11:43 am on Oct. 11, 2006)
For someone who is allegedly trying to educate himself in the art of bookmaking, you’re stunningly arrogant Carlisle. Various people are trying to offer advice, but you’ve merely insulted either their character or their intelligence, and occasionally both. If you want to debate specifics, then I’ll be delighted to pass on my knowledge, but you don’t seem to want to learn anything.
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