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Carlisle I’ve started a system based on "bookmaker’s weaknesses" in the systems section
What do you percieve bookmaker’s weaknesses to be and how do you exploit them?
Hi FlatseasonLover
thanks for your reply.
You know when you start off with an idea and then it<br>develops and changes.  Helped by exploring things in an logical, reasoned manner.  Well I have put forward this theory about certain horses not even deserving a price.
A Bit radical I know.
It would be good to hear an intelligent contribution.
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>
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Carlisle
Basically, what you seem to be saying, (though, God knows, there must be better ways of putting it across), is that if you ignore the ‘no-hopers’ and price up the field on the rest, there is a workable margin in your favour?<br> If that supposition is correct, then I would agree that there are many races, (with exposed horses), where a large proportion of the field have no chance of winning, and yes, it would be possible to turn a profit betting the remainder, though it is difficult to see how it lends itself to a system.<br> Maybe if you were a little more open about your intentions, and your own research, you would attract a more positive response?<br>Having said that, I would always be suspicious of anyone who has been on the forum as long as you have and raised the question "What is EC?".:o
Quote: from carlisle on 6:15 pm on Oct. 9, 2006[br]Hi Artemis
do you know which bookmakers offer treble odds for one winner?
byefrom<br>carlisle
Ladbrokes, Hills & Totesport
Hi
the more I think about ridgid systems the more fragile they seem.
It’s more important to concentrate on the right races.<br>Then do some analysis.
I would like to hear from another who calculates their own prices.  (I do this in a limited way)
Typically I might come up with the following.<br>=================================
6/5    45%<br>3/1    25%<br>9/2    18%<br>16/1    5%<br>22/1    4%<br>50/1    2%<br>100/1   1%
If 100 similar races were run, would the bottam 4 get any victories?  (without the aid of flying carrier bags etc)
byefrom<br>carlisle
<br>"you can’t beat a hobbyist,………pity"<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 9:41 am on Dec. 25, 2006)
carlisle,<br>I would expect them to win about 10% of the 100 races, although I would be much more confident if it was 1,000 races.
reet hard,
I thought about the EC connection as well. Have ‘carlisle’ and our lamented and now sadly departed friend EC, ever been seen together, I wonder?
(Edited by Artemis at 11:53 am on Oct. 12, 2006)
Hi Artemis
I warned you about that hole.
Any free thinkers out there, willing to work a bit and stretch their minds.
Imagine if the answer was less than 1%.
byefrom<br>carlisle
(Edited by carlisle at 2:48 pm on Oct. 12, 2006)
Quote: from carlisle on 10:42 am on Oct. 12, 2006[br]Typically I might come up with the following.<br>=================================
6/5    45%<br>3/1    25%<br>9/2    18%<br>16/1    5%<br>22/1    4%<br>50/1    2%<br>100/1   1%
If 100 similar races were run, would the bottam 4 get any victories?  (without the aid of flying carrier bags etc)
If these are your prices and you only expect the bottom 4 to win 1% of 100 races, then you are pricing them up wrong. Your pricing has to reflect your opinion on how may races you think each horse will win out of the 100. Otherwise how can you stand by your figures?
PS – I understand the concept that 100 coin tosses won’t necessarily produce 50 heads and 50 tails.
Hi davidbrady
I agree.
However my idea is that I am questioning the validity in giving every runner a price.  I feel compelled to do so, just like the bookies.  (for different reasons though)
There could be a sort of a probability tipping point.  The 5% is not able to compete with the top 3, and therefore it should be devalued.
This idea might be rubbish or not.
Who knows for sure?  I wish I did.
Research anyone……
byefrom<br>EC<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 3:31 pm on Oct. 12, 2006)
There has been a great deal of research on this subject.
The question is:
Do horses win in proportion to their SPs?
The answer, based on tens of thousands of races is yes with odds on representing the best value and long-priced outsiders the worst. A level stake bet on every runner would, of course, show a loss, but as prices get bigger, the percentage loss also gets bigger.
My original stab at 10% was probably too high. I think 7% is nearer the mark.
If it was below 1%, I would go to the foot of our stairs
Quote: from Ultimate Nightmare on 10:04 am on Oct. 12, 2006[br]
Quote: from carlisle on 6:15 pm on Oct. 9, 2006[br]Hi Artemis
do you know which bookmakers offer treble odds for one winner?
byefrom<br>carlisle
Ladbrokes, Hills & Totesport <br>
NONE of these firms offer treble the odds on one winner as a regular concession. The only time you will find this with the aforementioned firms is in betting shops where there is a competitive marketplace or where punters are notoriously stingy (Newcastle, for example) :biggrin:
Hi Artemis
I have just run a Raceform Query for 6/4’s that ran during 2005, with the following results.
120wins  from  317runs   37.9%  (- 17.00)
I know that SP’s are a good indicator.
However, I am not talking about SP’s.
Accurately calculating ones own prices is time consuming and difficult, but I feel it must be done.  Without them you cannot assess risk.
I realise it’s not for everyone.
byefornow
(Edited by carlisle at 6:35 pm on Oct. 12, 2006)
I live quite close to Newcastle. The people are’canny’ rather than stingy and there is an abundance of competition for the punter’s pound with the result that the best concessions are available to get people in. The hope is that regulars will lose a few pounds on the FOBTs while they are hanging about between other betting events.
BetFred offer treble the odds for 1 winner…….
(for Lucky 15’s)
(Edited by carlisle at 6:37 pm on Oct. 12, 2006)
Quote: from carlisle on 5:26 pm on Oct. 12, 2006[br]BetFred offer treble the odds for 1 winner…….
(for Lucky 15’s)
(Edited by carlisle at 6:37 pm on Oct. 12, 2006)<br>
Hello, anybody from the real planet out there! Betfred used to give Treble Odds, Hills And Ladbrokes Were and still are unless it has changed again, in response to totesport offering treble odds. Rory visit a betting shop ;)
Quote: from Artemis on 5:23 pm on Oct. 12, 2006[br]I live quite close to Newcastle. The people are’canny’ rather than stingy and there is an abundance of competition for the punter’s pound with the result that the best concessions are available to get people in. The hope is that regulars will lose a few pounds on the FOBTs while they are hanging about between other betting events.
No offence intended Artemis, I assure you :cool:
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