October 8, 2006 at 12:34 #3123
I would like to brainstorm this idea of the Bookies vunerablity. With a view to producing an automated, testable system.
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>October 8, 2006 at 12:39 #79061FlatSeasonLoverMember
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filthy e/w bets. 1/5 favourite, 10/1 the field 8 runners. Ladbrokes certainly don’t like laying e/w multiples in filthy e/w races.October 8, 2006 at 15:13 #79062seabirdParticipant
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Generally speaking they are very greedy.;)
ColinOctober 8, 2006 at 17:05 #79063MountyMember
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My right knee is giving me some grief – ever since I used the step machine at that bloody gym and I still have a dicky left shoulder (thanks to a distinguished goalkeeping career in my youth). :)
But seriously….online firms who have no traders/odds compilers in the traditional sense but who use software to set their odds according to Betfair. Someone in cyberspace will be willing to lay 8 x two quid but they’ll go 8-1 – bonkers. It’s a similar story on-course.October 8, 2006 at 18:10 #79064betlargeParticipant
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Mounty, you were a goalkeeper? I’ve heard it all now…presumably your teammates spotted a ‘trend’ relating to picking the ball out of the back of the net?
There’s an Aussie layer who offers a nudge up on all SP bets i.e winner at 6-4 pays 13-8. No big deal, but when you get into the area of 4-1+ they go up by half-a-point which is a valuable increase percentage-wise. I think they lay this offer in doubles as well. Couple two winning 4-1 pokes and the double pays 30.25 – 21% over the odds.
Can’t really complain at that.
MikeOctober 8, 2006 at 18:37 #79065guskennedyMember
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Quote: from betlarge on 7:10 pm on Oct. 8, 2006[br]There’s an Aussie layer who offers a nudge up on all SP bets i.e winner at 6-4 pays 13-8. No big deal, but when you get into the area of 4-1+ they go up by half-a-point which is a valuable increase percentage-wise.
Is this firm still going? I’ve not seen their advert for ages and I must say I assumed they’d gone the way of all firms offering too-good-to-be-true incentives like this.October 8, 2006 at 18:59 #79066betlargeParticipant
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They were trading under a different UK name but have changed their name back to, I think, the parent company. I’m fairly sure it’s the name they use Down Under.
They are still offering the ‘SP Plus’ as they call it – I believe they are also pretty well funded although their past website was a bit clunky (haven’t used it for some time as I haven’t beeen punting).
MikeOctober 9, 2006 at 06:39 #79067
I like the one about 1/5Fav 10/1 bar one e.w. bets.
Bookies would hate these bets, and the 1/5Fav MUST be opposed any way. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â It’s a no brainer!
Even 5/1 bar one in some cases can be a bet to nothing.<br>Each ways are a good source of value bets. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â However, I think punters have too many thriftless e.w’s.
I say you must be confident it will be placed not hopeful, otherwise you will lose twice as much.
With this confidence 5/2 horse can be backed Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£10 ew,<br>thus only risking Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£5 for a chance of Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£30.
I agree that the search for value prices is another vital tactic.
byefrom<br>carlisleOctober 9, 2006 at 07:01 #79068SeagullMember
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The bookmakers hate ew doubles on second favs in races with 8-10 runners.<br>It is something that does well especially in Nat Hunt racing especially when you find 2 odds on favs to oppose and in the end will get you banned. <br>Try getting a Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£100 ew double 2nd favs in 8-10 runner races on and in any shop where they are clued up they will refuse this type of bet.October 9, 2006 at 10:57 #79069ArtemisParticipant
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Most bookmaker’s are hungry for market share and will offer decent concessions to try to grab it and keep it.<br>They are hoping, of course, to attract habitually losing punters(about 98% of the punting population), so only offer these inducements on profitable(to bookmakers) bets such as multiples, forecasts, placepots etc.
However, those(reluctantly) offering TRIPLE odds to anyone backing just one winner on a Lucky 15, are IMO exposing themselves in a limited way to punters who are breaking level or making small profits.
It is possible to make a small profit on this type of bet by looking for value(that word, again!) selections with average odds of about 6/1 with the added interest of catching a decent pay out if you manage to find 3 or 4 winners every month or so. I should point out that you would need to be showing a profit at level stakes to benefit, but betting like this day in, day out, lacks excitement at moderate stakes. With a Lucky 15, you have a chance of winning enough for a modest holiday or a new TV, with the ‘insurance’ of getting your money back for 1 winner at 9/2.
If you do the maths, you will find that this bet is still profitable for bookmakers, but my feeling is that it is only offered with great reluctance. Fred Done of Done’s Bookmakers was quoted as saying that the concession reduces his profits by an estimated Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£2 million in a year, but he didn’t say he has to keep it going because it is one of his best marketing weapons. Not quite a loss-leader, but the next best thing for someone like me, who just about breaks even in a modest season like this one has been.October 9, 2006 at 17:15 #79070
do you know which bookmakers offer treble odds for one winner?
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>October 9, 2006 at 18:35 #79071PerpetualParticipant
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They’ll also chuck in a free Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£25 bet for new clientsOctober 9, 2006 at 18:38 #79072roryParticipant
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Very few Carlisle, the obvious exceptions being BetFred and those betting shops who have direct competition from 2 other firms.October 9, 2006 at 18:57 #79073Shadow LeaderMember
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The Aussie firm who operate the "SP plus" promotion are Centrebet. They used to operate out of Walton on Thames as Superodds, a seperate arm under the Centrebet banner, before taking on the name of the parent company. They may still operate out of Walton but I’m sure the bulk of the control reverted back to the Australian offices when they ended the Superodds name.October 9, 2006 at 22:00 #79074
Bookmakers have to price up every horse in every race.
"Well, what’s wrong with that?"
I wonder……..is there an edge to be exploited.
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