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When going through the form beforehand it was evident all four horses usually race prominently. However, connections of horses also go through the form too.
The outsider had quite a lot to find on form. Had they raced amongst the others they knew he’d get beat. So – taking into account how the other three usually run… His best chance was to drop the horse out and hope the other three cut each other’s throats and pick up the pieces.
Ahoy Senor’s pilot’s number one task was probably to get him jumping. In that way – if there was no competition for the lead – being in front would be to his advantage… But with the other three runners usually racing prominently they probably did not want to get into a dual with a much better jumping horse (or two). Jumping upsides a good jumping rival can be difficult for any horse let alone a poor jumper. So can understand their choice to give him room.
L’Homme Presse although often “races prominently”, actually seldom leads early… So being second or third was what could be expected of him. Deutch just did not expect the horse with the most speed to make it a test of stamina at the trip. However, going a strongish pace also puts more emphasis on jumping… And – at least right handed on a flat track – Pic D’Orhy’s strength and both main rival’s weaknesses were jumping and speed. L’Homme Presse couldn’t get back into it because he didn’t have the speed at the trip considering his jumping left.
Considering several aspects of form were against L’Homme Presse today, imo it wasn’t such a bad effort as you might think.
Value Is EverythingYou knew the winner was going to lead regardless and Ahoy Senor was held up last time so yes he was more likely to do that again and based on that, LHP was always likely going to sit 2nd but giving that much advantage away to the confirmed 2½ horse was a mental lapse on Deutsch’s part.
You could argue that the distance between LHP & Ahoy Senor is on par with their Cheltenham run but considering it was a decent gallop, the fact that Sail Away (a mid 140s horse) was only beaten 4¾L by LHP makes me think the winner in gaining his 2nd G1 win has again taken advantage of underperforming G1 rivals.
That being said Cobden was really on it from the start and has given him a great ride all round.
Plenty against LHP today but you’d struggle to take many positives from the performance still other than he got round okay safe. You can’t credit Pic D’Orhy with an improved performance, in fact you can’t even credit him with running to his current mark without saying you believe Sail Away’s improved around 10lbs. if the handicapper takes this one literally Sail Away may as well retire because he’ll never win a race again. On any basis L’Homme Presse has probably run well below himself and the form of his win getting weight from Protektorat already took a knock by Shishkin dismantling him off level weights and Hitman beating him which is a pretty big old knock. He hasn’t run to that 170 mark on either start this season for me, jury’s still out on how much ability he’s retained after his issues.
LHP trainer comments…
“Last week it looked like there was going to be loads of rain but that never materialised and running him over a trip too short on ground that’s half good is not playing to his strengths. Credit to the winner, today was his day. I’m delighted with him and it was a stepping stone. I’m very pleased. Charlie had to be after him a lot of the way as Harry Cobden went a good strong gallop, which was the right thing to do, and he was doing his best work at the finish.”
I like LHP but plenty of reasons to take him on yesterday
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
“Ahoy Senor was held up last time so yes he was more likely to do that again and based on that…”
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Oh no he wasn’t, LD. Ahoy Senor raced prominently in the Cotswold Chase.
Ahoy Senor started the Cotswold Chase as if to lead, touched down over the first fence exactly together with The Real Wacker. In no time at all the pair some 5 or 6 lengths clear of the third. So imo the intent to lead on Ahoy Senor was clear. ie Only reason he did not lead outright in the Cotswold Chase is the jockey on The Real Wacker wanted to… So had AS’s jockey insisted on making the running the pair would have cut each other’s throats, therefore wisely settled in a clear second. Remaining second until leading on the home turn.However, with Ahoy Senor running such a good race from second before the tack broke… It was probably decided that with other – better jumping – front / prominent runners in the four runner Ascot race… AS could be “settled” in second or third.
Although L’Homme Presse races prominently he doesn’t actually lead early. I am not the jockey’s greatest fan, but Deutch didn’t have much option but to be so far back. Just a couple of lengths down going to the first but Pic D’Orhy met it spot on whereas L’Homme Presse met it wrong and (as predicted) jumping left handed. Persistently losing ground at each fence. I’d be pretty sure over the much longer trip of 3m2f on a left handed track, when Venetia is in better form – you’ll see a far better display from L’HP. The distance between him and Ahoy Senor may have been similar to the “RSA”, but the pair have both improved since so means little imo. Circumstances were probably equally against the pair, hence Sail Away getting close to them. As I said before, they probably changed tactics on the outsider hoping to pick up the pieces if the others got into a battle and the two stayers did get into trouble at least.
You make a good point about the proximity of Sail Away to Pic D’Orhy. Maybe the outsider improved but although only 8 years old has looked pretty exposed of late. Pic D’Orhy probably did not need to improve and a particularly good round of jumping… Obviously has a good chance at Aintree, but that chance may well be over-estimated by the market given what some have made of this performance.
Value Is EverythingIt is interesting the time (by Racing Post Standard) wasn’t that quick. Threeunderthrufive put up a faster time, over further, carrying more weight,
Value Is EverythingGoing by the trainer comments LHP wouldn’t have wanted a hard race,
at that distance, on that going, with that pace, conceding ground to a quicker horse was either a very poor judged ride or a training in public exerciseGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’ve always considered Pic d’orhy a very solid and reliable grade 2 horse. I think he’s a smashing horse for that grade. But if Nicholls is right and he’s improving he’s just given shiskin a massive compliment and he’s very much a live runner in the gold cup!
Disappointing performance by L’Homme Presse. Pic d’Orhy produced a rock solid round of jumping, probably a 165-170 performance and L’Homme Presse never had a chance. Going lefthanded and a longer track will help, but I can’t see enough improvement from those things to really be in the mix for the Gold Cup. Especially if you consider his performance in the Scilly Isles a few seasons back.
Definitely a combination of poor and good rides!
If I ever win the euro millions the first thing I’d spend my money on is paying Cobden whatever it takes to make him my retained rider.
Ginge – I stand corrected on the Cheltenham race, he did try to lead but ended up being held up when the jockey didn’t want to get into a speed duel.
I am a little perplexed by the trainers comments: “Last week it looked like there was going to be loads of rain but that never materialised and running him over a trip too short on ground that’s half good is not playing to his strengths”. “I’m delighted with him and it was a stepping stone. I’m very pleased. Charlie had to be after him a lot of the way”
The jockey said: “He’s over the wrong trip and I almost looked at today as I’d try and win but if I don’t it doesn’t matter and hopefully it gets him ready for Cheltenham. I kind of knew my fate. He was trying, he was just flat out.”
Yet he had a Tingle Creek entry this season and just 4 of his 14 races have been over further than 2m5f and the Lingfield race was only 1F further, so they clearly think he has pace and I think they would have expected him to have been able to lay up a fair bit closer to the winner than he was able to……not helped by him tending to prefer to go in short at a lot of his fence thus losing a lot of momentum when already on the back foot after the start.
Can’t believe that him being ‘flat out’ for pretty much the whole of the 2m5f trip yesterday was a good prep for the Gold Cup and even though he clearly gets 3m, as we all know 3m2f at Cheltenham is another kettle of fish entirely and has found out many better G1 3m chasers than him.
I think L’Homme Presse possibly has an undiscovered issue.
His jumping has been atrocious since his comeback and yesterday, he was shortening his stride at the sight of every fence. He appeared to be dreading making the leap. Could be pain related.Hard to say whether that might be a physical issue or if it might have been more to the fact that he was going as fast as he was capable and felt safer going in and popping rather than letting fly because even when he met the last on a good stride their seemed to be half a thought to go short and it looked a bit guessy when he came up on stride.
With L’Homme Presse:
Yes, it is hard to envisage him improving just for the trip and left-handed… But it is not just those two things. A major consideration surely has to be the form of Venitia’s yard. She now has a Racing Post “RTF” (ran to form) figure of only 25%. In the last 10 days she’s had 17 runners and only Victtorino and L’Homme Presse have got within 6 lengths of the winner… And 7 have been pulled up.Value Is Everything
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