- This topic has 49 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
For me L’Homme Presse needs to be putting this lot away with the minimum of fuss if he is to be considered a proper Gold Cup threat to GDC.
Pic D’Orhy is a solid G2 horse at best (usually gets found out when going in against true G1 horses) and Ahoy Senor (whilst he was running a much better race before tack failure put pay to any chance he had last time) I am not sure you could say he would have won the race and it was still only Capodanno that won it and as we know, he was 23L behind GDC in the Savills.
To date LHP’s form simply isn’t good enough to win a Gold Cup – held in the 2022 King George by BMG (who hasn’t won since) when unseating at the last, yes he did well to win off the back of his layoff but beating the fully exposed Protektorat (who was giving him 4lbs and himself hasn’t won a race since November 2022) is also nowhere near good enough. Yes he is unbeaten at Cheltenham in 2 runs but even that form (in beating Ahoy Senor in the Brown Advisory and The Glancing Queen in the Dipper) doesn’t bare close scrutiny either.
I could well see him possibly in a battle for 3rd or 4th but for me it would take several others underperforming to see him winning a Gold Cup.
Nothing else but an easy win here will do.
Realistically, for L’HP to win the Gold Cup GDC needs to run below form. However, if that happens there isn’t much between three or four others – including L’HP. I agree he was beaten when unseating in the King George, but he was probably running below form there when that happened. The Rehearsal victory under 12-0 was a good performance. Second that day went on to win the Rowland Merrick next time out and the third had won the big 3m handicap at the Grand National meeting. Bravemansgame (and Allaho) getting beaten in this time around can be put down (at least in part) to getting “racing” too soon – beaten by a held up horse. Bravemansgame is a bit better than he showed in this season’s race.
The Browns Anniversary has worked out pretty well. L’HP may have got beaten at Aintree next time… But the horse he had beaten a fairly easy 3 1/2 lengths Ahoy Senor won that Aintree Novice and went on to win the Cotswold Chase. The 5+ lengths third at Cheltenham Galliard… won a Grade 1 novice two starts later and only beaten 7 lengths by Corach Rambler 7 lengths in the Grand National trying to give him 9 lbs.
Trip, Going, Trainer Form, Right Handed, even “bounce factor”… Would not surprise me if L’HP were to get beaten today and then win the Gold Cup. Provided VW is in better form, gets softer going and GDC runs below form.
Value Is EverythingFar too many ifs for me but as they say ‘you gotta be in it, to win it’.
Will be interestig to see how he jumps going this way as he was noticable out to his left both in the King George and when he last ran here when winning a graduation chase in 2021.
lol what bounce factor? He raced last season, not had a season off. If he comes unstuck it’ll be coz he’s going this way round, jumping not up to scratch, he isnt that good now, trainer form, falls or gets injured. Not a betting race for me.
There is but are any of the others in with a sniff in a GC
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
tbh Judging by race times at Ascot, the going should not be an excuse for L’HP or AS. Although the softer it is the more stamina will come into play… I’d call today genuine good-soft.
Value Is EverythingWell done Nathan and everyone else on. What a great sight to watch him pinging round and a well judged ride too.
LHP had a tough enough race there.Yep losing ground going left at the fences. Ran ok though as ran to the RSA form with Ahoy Senor though that form isn’t Gold Cup winning form.
Why on earth did they let Cobden get away like that from the tape the only thing that was going to stop Pic D’Orhy was the fences. From a circuit out I thought this is all over
The more I know the less I understand.
The race was won at the start , Deusch should get a bollocking giving away that much ground , well done to the winner though
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
L’Homme Presse’s comeback run was decent but he needed to take another step forward here and has failed to do so. I’m not sure what injury he had but he looks finished at the top level now. Isn’t jumping with anywhere near the speed and confidence pre injury.
The right handed track is no excuse either. He was excellent in the King George last year and beat Pic D’orhy 27L at Sandown previously.Nicholls saying he reckons the winner is still improving …he might be right
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
“The right handed track is no excuse either. He was excellent in the King George last year and beat Pic D’orhy 27L at Sandown previously.”
He was jumping right in a Grade 1 at Kempton as well. Clearly better form left handed. And Pic D’orhy has improved since Sandown.
If anyone has an ew ticket at a big price on LHP for the Gold Cup hang on to it. Assuming he runs, 3rd looks up for grabs and he’d be in the mix for it.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.