Ascot Chase 2024

[Silver Spoon]

You can pick holes in the all, but I’m as well betting Ahoy Senor at 11-2, as the other pair

[Gingertipster]

One “hole”, one thing to bear in mind with Ahoy Senor is he’s only run 3 times right handed from 20 starts. Only once since a novice. For a horse that has jumping problems anyway, I would think he’s raced mainly left handed because connections believe it favours him most in that department.

Carlisle – Unseated rider in the Colin Parker on chasing debut, beaten at the time.
Kempton – Two starts later. 11/10 fav for the Kauto Star, 7 1/2 lengths 2nd to Bravemansgame after a poor round of jumping.
Kempton – In Bravemansgame’s King George, didn’t jump too badly but sometimes slightly left, carried head awkwardly, well beaten after (with Frodon in the race) unable to dominate.

Value Is Everything

[Nathan Hughes]

I’ve done Pic D’Orhy at 5/2 this morning
should be closer to the fav in the betting unless the going gets heavier than heavy
was a decent effort behind Banbridge last time, likes the course and the favourite is having his 2nd run after a long lay off and some times those can be where they get caught out

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[Gingertipster]

I’d agree with that, Nathan.
…And right handed is not ideal for the fav either.
Although LHP has often run well RH, he’s jumped to the left and although is normally a sound jumper imo makes more mistakes RH too.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Trouble is all four horses like to race prominently.

Value Is Everything

[vikingflagship]

I do love L’Homme Pressse, also Ahoy Senor so think this be a race I’ll just sit back and watch rather then have a bet

VF x

[Gingertipster]

The outsider Sail Away has also only raced right-handed once.

Value Is Everything

[GM23]

Think L’Homme Presse will win this handily but still feel he should skip it and head straight for the Gold Cup.
Shishkin left his Cheltenham performance behind in this race last year.

[Gingertipster]

In a way I agree, GM. But when connections have a good horse that’s missed a year and a bit fragile, I suppose it makes sense to run him whenever sound. May not be sound come the middle of March.

Value Is Everything

[befair]

Pic d’Orhy seems to have the fewest question marks

[vikingflagship]

Yes agree on Pic d’Orhy befair

VF x

[Refuse To Bend]

I think they need to get another run into L’Homme Presse to eliminate the “bounce factor”. I hope he wins convincingly so we have a realistic challenge in the Gold Cup.

The more I know the less I understand.

[Ex RubyLight]

Agree with Pic D’Orhy being the most solid selection. 2/1 still seems okay. Ahoy Senor has only won once outside of novice company and bring also the above mentioned weaknesses into the race.

[Gingertipster]

Trainer form is also a bit of a worry for the favourite’s team.
On my trainer form ratings:
Nicholls is in excellent form 9/10
Skelton good form 7/10
Russell ok form 6/10
But Venitia only 4/10 – and close to 3 – Judged by the Racing Post, has had one easy winner in her last 19 runners in the last two weeks. Only two of those beaten getting within 7 lengths of the winner. That’s not to say L’HP will get beat, just there’s imo a larger chance of him running below form. Is clearly the form choice, so still have him favourite… but there is quite a lot against L’HP to suggest is worth opposing at odds-on.

My 100% book is:
L’Homme Presse 48% (11/10)
Pic Dorhy 36% (7/4)
Ahoy Senor 15% (11/2)
Sail Away 1% (100/1)

Value Is Everything

[DBRDBR]

L’Homme Presse has drifted a bit. I just think he will do enough and win this.

L’Homme Presse 6/5

[Gingertipster]

I took 2.3/1 Pic Dorhy and have now had a two thirds saver on L’Homme Presse @ 1.36/1

Value Is Everything

[Gladiateur]

I think L’Homme Pressé is the best horse in the race, but he’s better going left-handed and over further. Throw in doubts about the stable’s wellbeing, and there are plenty of reasons to take him on.

This is definitely more Pic D’Orhy’s cup of tea, so he gets the vote.

[Author]

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