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This thing about Sceau Royal not being as good at Cheltenham stems back to the 2016 Triumph, 12th of 15 finishers, but if I remember rightly King had a poor Cheltenham and SR had missed his one time intended prep in the Adonis. After the Triumph he was even more disappointing at Aintree and his best form that season was arguably in the Triumph Trial at… Cheltenham. Beating favourite Adrien Du Pont 1 3/4 lengths at levels. The second on his next start winning the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow.
Sceaux Royal was giving 5 lbs when only a neck behind North Hill Harvey at Cheltenham. Had it been levels would people be saying this had (in theory) SR won by 4 3/4 lengths?
He was beaten 2 1/4 lengths in to 3rd by Yanworth at Wincanton, but the winner was giving 4 lbs. Couldn’t even beat Ch’Tibello at levels, who was 1 1/4 in front. Is that form any better than his Cheltenham Champion Hurdle form?
He won the Elite at Wincanton by 9 lengths giving 5 lbs (+3lb claim) but that was only to Rayvin Black… And he was priced 4/6 to do so and the 2/1 second fav Zubayer fell at the last when only a length down. Is that really any better form than his Champion Hurdle run?
Before that had won a class 2 at Cheltenham, he was receiving 4 lbs but quickened away from the last to beat Leoncavallo 11 lengths for an impressive success.
Sceaux Royal’s Cheltenham Champion Hurdle form last year was surely at least as good as anything he’d previously shown? Not as if he had good enough form to win it or even place. Only one of the 11 runners starting at a bigger price than Sceau Royal’s 25/1. Finished 13 1/4 lengths behind Buveur D’Air, just over 3 lengths behind Footpad and a total of 6 behind Petit Mouchoir. That’s as good as Sceau Royal is over hurdles and can’t see why that does not prove his effectiveness both at Cheltenham and in March. Already shown better form over fences.
Value Is EverythingPetit Mouchoir is a standout bet here. 8/1 NRNB With Hills still available looks excellent e/w value.
Working well and runs in the Irish Arkle start of Feb against Footpad. Runs him anywhere near close there and he halves in price.I’ll be surprised if he finishes within 5 lengths of Footpad at Leopardstown.
Even though he was a better hurdler?
There was a length between them in the Irish Champion ( Footpad in receipt of 2lb )
Three lengths in the Champion. Not a huge amount.Footpad since benefited from a change of tactics, fitness not in question, the extra run over fences.
Petit Mouchoir may well have the scope to eventually end up better than Footpad and Sceau Royal. However, at most he’ll only have two chases to his name when lining up in this. Inexperience a disadvantage and due to injury is less likely to run than the Munir duo.
Value Is EverythingFair enough
Still think I’m better off with my Petit Mouchoir 7/1 than someone taking 11/8 on the favourite personally. Time will tell.
And Al Ferof was arguably a better hurdler than Sprinter Sacre. Hurdles form doesn’t always translate neatly over to fences, and although Petit Mouchoir looked a decent ‘leper’ on his chase debut, Footpad looks like one of the best jumpers of a fence I’ve seen in quite a while. Couple that with PM’s setback, and its entirely likely he fails to get within 5 lengths of him.
If I’m honest, I think 7/1 is quite short, he’s being priced purely on his hurdling form. With Brain Power, Sceau Royal, and even North Hill Harvey showing vast improvement for a fence, I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see PM finish out of the frame at Cheltenham. If he can improve at the same rate they have over fences, then he should have them covered on hurdling form, but that is not a given.
If I had to back one of them at this stage, it would probably be Brain Power each way at 12/1. However, I can’t see him getting near UDS on soft ground, so who knows, we might even see a little drift after Saturday.
Some good points that are hard to argue against to be fair. But I’ll give it a go.
Whilst I too think footpad is the most natural jumper of a fence for a novice I’ve ever seen, PM could quite easily take to fences and improve too. If he gets the prep run as they expect with PM, he should be fully fit for the festival. Perhaps the lack of experience will hinder my horse but Footpads races have hardly been the hustle and bustle with the lightning tempo you expect for an Arkle.
Couldn’t have Brain Power for anything. Think he’s the most overhyped horse in training. Said that in the lead up to last years champion Hurdle and I maintain that view.
For me, the 11/8 isn’t as good a bet as PM at 7s NRNB.
For what it’s worth, if PM doesn’t run and Footpad is odds against on the day, I’ll probably end up lumping on the the favourite. Quite frankly, I make it a two horse race.
Yeah, there’s a value issue now with Footpad but I’ve got him at 20s and 16s.
I might be wrong about Petit Mouchoir but I don’t like his pedigree for an Arkle – I’ve mentioned Al Namix as a sire before on here. I’m more worried about the Whittington horse.That said, Footpad isn’t really bred to be doing what he’s doing but “ freaks “ like this do slip through !
Now having 16s and 20/1 is a completely different ball game. Two cracking prices there and, quite obviously, that’s a cracking bet.
Spot on MOM. Although the 8s with Hills NRNB (it’s here or nowhere for PM surely) is what I’ve been picking away at.
Footpad has gone from being a sub-grade 1 hurdler to a ‘freak’ in the space of two runs against inferior opposition?
He’s putting up decent figures and has looked good, but he’s not won a good race yet.Wouldn’t be rushing to back Brain Power for anything at Cheltenham. Running novices in the Clarence isn’t Henderson’s normal cv; got to be a reason. BP hasn’t had many runs left-handed, but been disappointing when tried and trainer has so far kept him right-handed over fences. Henderson may have realised Saturday’s Ascot target may be his best chance of a big win this season. Whatever he does tomorrow wouldn’t back him to reproduce it at Cheltenham.
Value Is EverythingI don’t think even Henderson is deluded enough to think Brain Power has a chance of beating UDS on soft ground, unless he thinks the horse has somehow improved a stone since Sandown which would make him a value bet at any price. He chose to run Altior in open company last season, not because he thought it was his best chance of winning a big race, but because it was a viable stepping stone on his way to Cheltenham.
He may have an issue going left-handed, but after just 3 runs in his lifetime its hard to say with any degree of certainty. Everybody said Tea For Two couldn’t go left handed until he went and won the Aintree Bowl.
I won’t be rushing in to back him for Cheltenham though, I’m on Footpad any race at 14/1 as I posted on here immediately after his debut, just saying if I had to go in again I would probably play Brain Power each way at the prices.
Brain Power is 3/1 for tomorrow, four times that for the Arkle. So stands to reason has a far better chance of winning the Clarence House than winning the Arkle. So the market seems to illustrate Henderson is in no way “deluded”.
Brainpower has been kept away from left-handed tracks bar Cheltenham and Aintree. Yes, it may be only 3 runs to the left, but has run poorly every time and has been very consistent racing in so many races to the right in that time – strongly suggests it’s no coincidence. Horses are kept to racing one way for good reason.
I used to go racing with TRFer Softie and one of his racing pals is Len Jakeman. We had long enjoyable conversations with Len putting the Racing World to rights (you can imagine
)! We also talked about a promising young up and coming chaser he had half a share in called Tea For Two. After the Grade 1 victory in the Kauto Star at Kempton I asked him whether we should back him for the RSA? He was adamant, “No, he can’t go left-handed”… For a long time they kept him to right-handed tracks but then, suddenly there was a change…So just because Brain Power is unsuited by a left-handed course now, doesn’t mean he’ll remain unsuited forever. But until proving otherwise is highly unlikely to get any of my money when racing that way. Probability is he’ll fail again.
Value Is Everything
)! We also talked about a promising young up and coming chaser he had half a share in called Tea For Two. After the Grade 1 victory in the Kauto Star at Kempton I asked him whether we should back him for the RSA? He was adamant, “No, he can’t go left-handed”… For a long time they kept him to right-handed tracks but then, suddenly there was a change…
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