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Footpad is trained by Mullins; he has final say on where all his horses go and he’s a bit short of stars in the Arkle Division this year. Maybe they will both run in this and Jacob will have his choice.
When you look through the market i think there’s a slight lack of a star- has the potential to be wide open IMO.
Footpad could very easily run again and win everybit as takingly, but i’d still have my doubts about him at Cheltenham.The very fact that there are horses like Chacun Pour Soi (never seen in Britain, clearly hard to train and potentially just a hype job) quite high up in the market suggest to me it’s a fairly weak division.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Mullins changes his plans with Melon, or Cilaos Emery and decides to send them over fences- i know he has said they both lack experience and will stay over hurdles, but with the race looking quite open, it might just happen. Add to this the fact both look to be a notch of the top in terms of champion hurdles, and they have Faugheen.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Completely agree regarding it being a wide open Arkle Jack. I like it, far more to think about and more interesting than last year where Altior made the race a forgone conclusion
Re Footpad, I take encouragement from his performances at Cheltenham. He was held up in both the Triumph and Champion, jumping the 2nd last in both races with one behind on each occasion, then running on strongly up the hill to place in both, which is a great sign for Cheltenham. He is 5 going on 6, and clearly improving.
That was top class from sceau Royal. Very fast time also. The front two cut each other’s throats somewhat but no disputing the winner’s performance.
Dont see a whole lot coming in Ireland going by the Xmas grade 1 entries.
8/1 is a decent price, might have a nibble
Footpad is trained by Mullins; he has final say on where all his horses go
If that’s true Vautour (doubtful) no wonder O’Leary told him where to go; so would I. Munir and Souede will do the same. For a horse that’s equally as effective at the intermediate trip makes perfect sense for the owner to send Footpad for the JLT when you’ve got a speedy 2 miler in Sceau Royal. Mullins is the trainer not the owner, it’s not his horse.
Value Is EverythingHe does indeed have the final say and i dont think 99% of people would argue with his decision on where is best to run, if he says 2mile suits best, then 2 miles it is, hes a versatile horse indeed, but mullins knows best
Im sure they where made aware of his rules when the horses were sent there, you cant argue with his success, which means you cant argue with his reasoning
Anthony Bromley, racing manager to Munir and Souede, said: “We have history before of running two in a Cheltenham race. If they both keep going as they have been up to now we couldn’t keep them apart because we’re talking about the Arkle.”
Christmas Baubles to that, ham. Yes, it is possible to argue with Mullins reasoning.
Mullins knows what’s best. Ye right. Mullins may well know Footpad is equally or possibly better at the intermediate trip than 2m. ie Mullins knows he could run Footpad in the JLT which would enable the owners horses to be kept apart. But the important thing here is Mullins won’t want Footpad to go for the JLT if it proves between now and March his best chance to win the Arkle and if he’s got other horses for the JLT.
In other words: Mullins wants to do what’s best for Mullins; not what’s best for his owners or necessarily for the horse.
Value Is EverythingIf he enters him in the Arkle and he wins the Arkle then that’s what’s best for everyone.
Footpad is undoubtedly a very good horse but 7/4 ante-post looks a fairly toxic price right now.
Footpad is a natural jumper with a high level of raw ability AND I do generally agree with the notion that the British 2m novices are poor this year. Even so, the disparity between him and Sceau/NHH is probably too big.
I’m already on Petit Mouchoir (bet prior to setback) – I was very impressed with his chasing debut and think he matches Footpad all the way in historic ability. Obviously a minor early season injury was bad news for his prospects but any positive sign (especially a run in January) would make me start feeling very good about my 10/1.
I think Brain Power doesn’t go on left-handed tracks.
Sceau Royal is a neat little horse and probably a bit of a place banker though his price reflects that. Not much juice in 6/1 without NRMB terms.
In summary, I think my strategy on the day or when NRMB kicks in will see me trying to get Footpad beaten. Hopefully the prayers for Petit Mouchoir’s recovery are answered to save me from scratching around for another option.
Nice positive bulletin from De Bromhead on Petit Mouchoir on ATR, should run in February.
Would be a very interesting reappearance VS Footpad if that was to happen.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!If Altior were to miss the Champion Chase Footpad could well run there. 9/2 “with a run” now, be a lot shorter without Altior.
Value Is EverythingI have to say, of all the main 5 races, the three novice hurdles and the three novice chases (not including the 4 miler), this looks the hardest for me.
Footpad looks pretty good. And the race just looks absolutely awful. In most years, he’d never go off favourite.
Now with his course form, I would want to take him on.
But what with? It looks such a poor lineup. Looking through the market, sceau royale probably won’t run plus needs a lightning fast tempo. Like footpad, North Hill Harvey doesn’t scream Cheltenham festival winner to me. Cyrname surely isn’t good enough. Etc.
So I’ve had a bet on Petit Mouchoir. 7/1 NRNB is a better bet for me than the 10/1 but with the doubts on him turning up.
I find it a fascinating renewal despite the lack of obvious quality. Strange isn’t it.
Petit Mouchoir NRNB @ 7/1
Imo the race looks by far stronger in overall quality this year than the last few years, aside from altior last year it was very poor, all had modest hurdles ratings, all modest over a fence
The top end of the market this year over hurdles were all mid to high 150s with a few 160s thrown in the mix
Take charbel for example, came into the arkle off a rating of 147,sceau royal is already rated 161 (about the same douvan was, not a great statistic for obvious reasons) and hes not the fav, footpad likely around 160 odd, petit mouchoir will be capable of a similar mark if coming back, brain power 157, NHH 152.
Its a much deeper field this year and the winner is likely to have a lofty rating after the race
I definitely dont see a lack of quality, i see a lack of a “star name” could very well be one in this bunch…
Im not sure why sceau royal wont run? Do you think theyll step him up after slamming all of the other main british challengers for the arkle ? Having been at 2m his whole career? Hes more likely to be suited by this than footpad, but because the order of favouritism in the market its unlikely either will be stepped up, if footpad was 2nd fav and NOT trained by mullins then id say possibly, but i doubt under those corcumstances he will be stepped up.
You make a fair point on ratings Ham. But personally, I’d say in a years time, horses like Charbel and Cloudy Dream will prove better than horses like North Hill Harvey.
Only footpad and petit Mouchoir will go on to be high class in my opinion. I think footpad will be suited by other tracks too which is why I’ve backed PM.
As for Sceau Royale, you’re probably right that he will run here on reflection. However, he seems to go best when the speed is lightning quick and everything falls right for him. Now whilst he probably will get that race speed, will the stiff finish suit? Who knows.
As I said, I don’t think it’s the greatest renewal but as a race to look into, I think it’s a genuinely fascinating one.
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