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Just got a £100 e/w on
Carlito Brigante
with William Hills at 10/1 and that will be the last of it,mark my words!
Backed into 8/1 by the end of the day and it wont finish there,this horse will continue to be backed into clear favouritism come the day of reckoning.8/1 is still generous imo! Wait till
Cantlow
gets his target named!
Trixie and EW treble:
Calgary Bay
Hey Big Spender
Petite RoseWith an Ew single on Calgary
My eldest daughter gave a Friend of a friend of hers my phone number,this person rang me enquiring about some building work down in Leics,I went down and had a look and this building was derelict! Incredibly the guy who owned it lived in it and I can honestly say in the past 25yrs of developing propertiesI’ve never seen such a Sh*thole,the toilet was on the landing and clearly visible from the Kitchen as there was no ceiling just floor joists,bare walls exposed electric cables and plumbing,unreal!Me of course cant say no to a challenge so I was up for a bit of ‘demolition’.This guy wanted 2 windows either side of brickwork removing and 1 bigger window installing with 2 brick pillars either side.I’ll do it in 3 days I said and I have just finished it today.Apart from supporting the house side with 3 acro’s topped with Strongboys I managed to stop the whole house from falling down single handedly,just to keep the cost down for this guy who ‘looked’ like bloody Catweasle.Of course when I agreed to do this job,basically to ensure the cannons are well loaded for Cheltenham,I hadn’t realised my old pal
Calgary Bay
was running up at Doncaster as I’d have gone there instead,I saw the results last night and realised the old boy never featured but I’ll be watching him in something like the ‘Topham’ at Aintree.I know I’ll be accused of aftertiming but I did back him at 9/1 for the Grimthorpe!
Onwards and upwards and back to studying for Cheltenham.I’m pleased my Army are still standing strong,fingers crossed and that,I’m looking at thisBack in focus
for the 4 miler at the moment!
I’m looking at this
Back in focus
for the 4 miler at the moment!
I debated long and hard about taking BetVictor’s 12/1 NRFB a while back Gord but unfortunately waited too long and the price went. If he runs I think he’ll win.
Anyone who wants to play the Ante-Post markets has to have their wits about them all the time,its easy to lose focus of the bigger picture when you are concentrating on the one subject (Cheltenham).Thankfully I dont miss much and today has seen significant money on the only horse I rate as a danger to
Dawn Approach
in the 2000gns a horse I put up on here last year at 33/1 and said then he’ll go off 2nd fav!He’s 10/1 now and that tells me he’s doing just fine.
Cristoforo Colombo
will run a place in the 2000gns at the very worst!
Makes me ****** roll when I get knocked back by Ladbrokes,just tried to get on
Cristoforo Colombo
at 33/1 to £100 e/w! Nope,they wont have it!
……….£50 e/w max I got. Now as long as my names TAPK, I will by the end of today have £100 e/w at 33/1 on the horse,simple,I might even have £150 e/w on it now for that! Cristoforo Colombo
£50 e/w 33/1 2000gns 2013 Ladbrokes.
Dum de dum de dum! July 1st last year seems a while back now.Not in TAPK’s world.I’m expecting big things from this fellow this year,but can he beat
Dawn Approach
in the big one? They will go off 2/1 and 4/1 respectively and I’m sitting on 20/1 and 33/1 disrespectively!
Didn’t back anything in the Coventry Gord but was delighted with the run of Cristoforo Colombo. That was an excellent effort on only his second start, and on ground which is likely to prove softer than his ideal. Also, he was racing out on his won for quite some time and that surely can’t have helped a colt having only his second run. Dawn Approach won like a serious horse, he was under pressure earlier than most, but just kept finding more and more. 16/1 does look big, but 25/1 on my lad looks tasty too
June 20th
(sorry, had to do it!)Thanks Gord because I hadn’t even looked at the 2000 Guineas market for about 3 months I’d say so I’m glad you’ve posted about it as I didn’t know he’d been backed in to top price 12/1. Bit of good ground is what’s needed for him!
Didn’t back anything in the Coventry Gord but was delighted with the run of Cristoforo Colombo. That was an excellent effort on only his second start, and on ground which is likely to prove softer than his ideal. Also, he was racing out on his won for quite some time and that surely can’t have helped a colt having only his second run. Dawn Approach won like a serious horse, he was under pressure earlier than most, but just kept finding more and more. 16/1 does look big, but 25/1 on my lad looks tasty too
June 20th
(sorry, had to do it!)Thanks Gord because I hadn’t even looked at the 2000 Guineas market for about 3 months I’d say so I’m glad you’ve posted about it as I didn’t know he’d been backed in to top price 12/1. Bit of good ground is what’s needed for him!
Dont apologise Tommy,thats exactly the sort of post I preach,its called having the ability to use ‘Foresight’and you have it in bundles mate.
Cristoforo Colombo
is a miler through and through,a proper Guineas horse.Coolmore have ‘Mars’ and ‘Highbarns’ in the Guineas but they wont posess the speed of the ‘Henry’ colt,’George Vancouver’ will be ‘Cristoforo’s’ pacemaker (Joni)!!
"It will take a good one to beat Classy Jezki"
is the headline on the front of todays Racing Post. Yep I think we all know that and some of us know a good one who will! However here’s my dilemma,having gone through dozens of potential ‘Supreme’ candidates this past year I thought I’d spotted a dark horse who would be kept ticking just under the radar and in
My Tent or Yours
I found the perfect applicant for the job,right up to his victory at Huntingdon he still sat quietly at 14/1,prior to that he was embarrassed by an embarrassing ride from AP at Newbury so much so that Ladbrokes pushed him out to 20/1,now had I been their Odds compiler I’d have kept him at the 14/1 the rest of the High St had pitched him at but incredibly Ladbrokes read the form as literal,lovely jubbly!I remember JP purchasing ‘Jezki’ and this fellow showing himself to be a proper Grade 1 horse against lesser opponents in a weak Grade 1,that suited me fine as it took the emphasis off my fellow and in
Un atout
we had the 3 big guns sorted,there’s been a bit of musical chairs in the markets since but the fact remains this is a 3 horse race.
Un Atout
is a big beauty and I’d got a handle on him early too,trouble is I never marked him down as a ‘Supreme’ candidate and to this day I still dont think he has bullets in the chamber ready to fire,the bullets are there but he hasn’t quite mastered how to use them yet,when he does he will be a phenomenal force so unless its heavy he wont be winning imo.For sure I will have a double figure price on him for next years Jewson and RSA before we kick off next week.So the question is do I need to back JP’s ‘Jezki’ next week?At 5/1 now he is too big with only a week to go and if anything happens to ‘MTOY’ in that time he himself becomes the 6/4fav.It would be a sensible idea to cover myself by backing ‘Jezki’ but I’ve covered my stakes on ‘MTOY’ by laying him at 7/4 and having taken 30’s to win I really dont need to over complicate matters.What does concern me more is that I’m lead to believe ‘Jezki’ is the real deal,thats not my interpretation of what I’ve seen but what we will see and thats from reliable sources.I of course am renowned for not listening to such tales and like to create my own interpretation of a horse so I’m absolutely delighted with my selection.Another thing against me is the stats of short priced favs getting turned over and again I do wish the prices on ‘MTOY’ and ‘Jezki’ were reversed like I anticipated but thats just me feeling the pressure I think. Not often I feel nervous but I’m definitely feeling it with this years race and thats knowing I’m in the enviable position of having whats in effect a ‘Free’ bet!
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I know what you’re saying Gord, I’m sure it happens to most of us! You back a horse at quite big odds then as it gets backed down more and more the closer to the racetime it gets you almost become less confident about it.
Maybe throw Jezki in a couple of e/w doubles? Jezki/Boston Bob or Jezki/Captain Conan or Jezki/FL or whatever the hell you feel like.
Obviously slightly riskier but you wouldn’t have to worry as much about losing a decent % of your potential profit on your hedge bet(s).
I know what you’re saying Gord, I’m sure it happens to most of us! You back a horse at quite big odds then as it gets backed down more and more the closer to the racetime it gets you almost become less confident about it.
I’ll tell you my problem here Ben,its quite simple.Statistically and I dont like stats but hey they are a fact, the issue I have is in the last 3-4yrs the likes of
Cousin Vinny
,
Dunguib
, and
Cue Card
have all gone off red hot favs for the ‘Supreme’ and all got beat.I expected ‘Jezki’ to continue that trend not my bloody ‘MTOY’.I never fancied any of them either!I shall just hope my fellow can buck the trend!.I like your style regarding a few e/w doubles though,particularly with the horses you mention.I have already had half a dozen £1 lucky 31’s, one with ‘MTOY’ kicking things off at 12/1!!
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I know what you’re saying Gord, I’m sure it happens to most of us! You back a horse at quite big odds then as it gets backed down more and more the closer to the racetime it gets you almost become less confident about it.
I’ll tell you my problem here Ben,its quite simple.Statistically and I dont like stats but hey they are a fact, the issue I have is in the last 3-4yrs the likes of
Cousin Vinny
,
Dunguib
, and
Cue Card
have all gone off red hot favs for the ‘Supreme’ and all got beat.I expected ‘Jezki’ to continue that trend not my bloody ‘MTOY’.I never fancied any of them either!I shall just hope my fellow can buck the trend!.I like your style regarding a few e/w doubles though,particularly with the horses you mention.I have already had half a dozen £1 lucky 31’s, one with ‘MTOY’ kicking things off at 12/1!!
Yeah I agree completely, I think I made a post a month or so ago in the Supreme Novice thread (when Jezki was favourite) commenting on why people should be cautious of bettong on Jezki because only 2 or 3 faovurites have won the race in the last 10 years – and that was even more of a reason to bet on MTOY. The best horse in the race (and the horse that goes on to have the most successfull career) more often than not loses in the Supreme. It all seemed to add up perfectly at the time as more of a reason to bet on MTOY. Like you said though thats now all be reversed and we’re left scratching our heads.
Got to stick with your gut though
Got to stick with your gut though
Succinctly put Ben! There’s 27 races at the Festival and I will have a bet in about 21-22 of them,of these races I will have an interest bet in about 10 or so,I will have or have had good wagers in the remaining 10 at bigger Ante-Post prices than their respective SP’s,of the 10 I will have lumped on half of them,thats 5 races of the festival that will make serious money,anyone of those horses winning will ensure my festival has been successful.
My Tent or Yours
falls into that category and its the first race of the festival,what a way to start,a 20/1 Ante-Post touch on Day 1.Of course I have done the right thing in this instance Laying enough to cover my stakes because if he does what ‘Darlan’ did last year I wont be happy,that was a certainty beat in my world but at least he proved my judgement of him was spot on afterwards.So I’ve covered my stake,Great! The thing is now should I be doing the only real danger I can see in the race by backing ‘Jezki’ at 5/1 thats a big price for what is imo a 2 horse race,JP’s Irish horse v JP’s English horse,my head is telling me I should but if I do my heart tells me I’m bottling out on ‘MTOY’ a horse I thought 10 months ago was a ‘Supreme’ horse and he’s 99% of the way to showing it! My Gut however is telling me to pour a Brandy and Coke and think a bit more about this very rare scenario I have got myself into! Bloody Stats are niggling me here! Add
Ameretto Rose
and
Sweet wake
as hot pot favs beaten in the past 7 years and I’m beginning to panic!!
Just noticed the last red hot Fav to win the ‘Supreme’ was JP’sLike a Butterfly
at 7/4,11 years ago! Aaaaaaaaaargh!
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The way I’d look at it is that I doubt any of those horses were looked upon so highly as MTOY. When a horse like this pops up it can help to say **** the statistics my intelligence/judgement is more important than them!
BHison2 I’d look at the reason behind the stats. None of the last series of beaten favourites knew they were favourites, so that’s not why they lost! Instead consider that in order for a horse to reach market favouritism in a race like the supremes it would need to have shown a level of form prior to the festival that is the most superior on offer. Therein lies the problem I suspect, one of peaking AT the festival rather than some time before and the possible effects of earlier season form on juveniles.
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Hadn’t looked at it in that way Mil and that is quite a stumper!
TAPK – it could be said that Like-A-Butterfly was a fortunate winner of the race that day as Adamant Approach tipped up at the last when it was coming to win the race. I was down at the last hurdle that day and Ruby was gutted. I’ll never forget Ruby throwing his whip into the ground in anger. Not sure if this eases your anguish though. Good luck with MTOY.
Onwards and upwards and back to studying for Cheltenham.I’m pleased my Army are still standing strong,fingers crossed and that,I’m looking at this
……….£50 e/w max I got. Now as long as my names TAPK, I will by the end of today have £100 e/w at 33/1 on the horse,simple,I might even have £150 e/w on it now for that! 
(sorry, had to do it!)
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