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Sorry for the derailment Jac, thanks for putting the carriages back on track.
Hopefully Ballydoyle does the biz today by staying on, as she’s my Oaks filly. Not a gimme though, Blue Bayou and Tanaza interesting. Can see your thinking with Great Page, although if I was playing it would be Minding.
Just caught the end of Ballydoyle race and she was disappointing today, maybe one race too many. Hope you did a reverse forecast Ginge.
I was wrong about Great Page she obviously isn’t Group 1 material.
Sole Power saved the day for me today, the old spark is still there great ride by Chris Hayes.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...That looked a Guineas winner in waiting with Airforce Blue today. Did it in the style you would want, a la Gleneagles, coming right through to go away.
Buratino has perhaps stopped improving now and has too many runs for my liking to be a Guineas contender. Just something about Mark Johnston that doesn’t inspire me to back his horses for Classics.
Some 16/1 left on Oddschecker for Airforce Blue but I doubt you will be entertained at those odds. I would take anything 10/1 or bigger. He looks the best contender by some way to my eyes for Newmarket in May. A fine stamp of a colt who will go on progressing and a worthy favourite for the 2000 Guineas now.
Some good judges on this thread
Air Force Blue is 6/1 with Corals now but everyone else is shorter. Had Emotionless not emerged this week, I shudder to think what Air Force Blue’s price would be now?
He struck me as the natural successor to Gleneagles. He has the speed, we know he gets 7f now and his come from behind style and the way he finished the race today suggest he will get a mile. Training on will be the question mark.
Will he clash with Emotionless in the Dewhurst or will they be kept apart?
10/1 was still available on Air Force Blue last night, so it doesn’t look like many had the same view as me that would prove prudent to take those odds.
Sky Bet go 5/1 jf Emotionless and Air Force Blue, I think it’s a no brainer that the horse with the stronger form and the most prolific stable in the recent history of the race, is the much better bet of the two.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<aSorry for the derailment Jac, thanks for putting the carriages back on track.
Hopefully Ballydoyle does the biz today by staying on, as she’s my Oaks filly. Not a gimme though, Blue Bayou and Tanaza interesting. Can see your thinking with Great Page, although if I was playing it would be Minding.
Just caught the end of Ballydoyle race and she was disappointing today, maybe one race too many. Hope you did a reverse forecast Ginge.
I was wrong about Great Page she obviously isn’t Group 1 material.
Sole Power saved the day for me today, the old spark is still there great ride by Chris Hayes. JacBallydoyle just looked outstayed to me. She’s quite keen to get on with things and for a long way today I thought she would prevail.
Looking at Ballydoyle her action seems one of a horse who will run with the choke out most of the way. I don’t think she looks at all like an Oaks filly.
I expected that Tanaza would place today but the 20/1 Alice Springs grabbed third spot. Tanaza had been well ahead of her previously and the second horse Minding. Perhaps my observation that Weld’s filly was smaller and perhaps had less scope to progress through the season had some substance to it.
I have to say that I think the French horse Antonoe would beat the lot of them if they met.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
At this stage air force blue is heads and shoulders above the other 2yos and looks better than gleneagles did at this stage of his career.Considering the ground that was mighty impressive and i think he will scare most away if he goes for the dewhurst. If it is good or better at newmarket next may he will take some beating and he still seems to be progressing at a rate of knots.Dont know what to make of ballydoyle and minding but they are two very good fillies.Maybe it was the ground that beat ballydoyle but minding looks a top prospect and aiden obrien seems to as usual have some cracking horses for next seasons classics when you consider deauville as well.
<aSorry for the derailment Jac, thanks for putting the carriages back on track.
Hopefully Ballydoyle does the biz today by staying on, as she’s my Oaks filly. Not a gimme though, Blue Bayou and Tanaza interesting. Can see your thinking with Great Page, although if I was playing it would be Minding.
Just caught the end of Ballydoyle race and she was disappointing today, maybe one race too many. Hope you did a reverse forecast Ginge.
I was wrong about Great Page she obviously isn’t Group 1 material.
Sole Power saved the day for me today, the old spark is still there great ride by Chris Hayes. JacBallydoyle just looked outstayed to me. She’s quite keen to get on with things and for a long way today I thought she would prevail.
Looking at Ballydoyle her action seems one of a horse who will run with the choke out most of the way. I don’t think she looks at all like an Oaks filly.
Didn’t back anything today Jac.
Well done with Sole Power, great to see him back in the winners enclosure. I was convinced he’d gone.You see it differently to me Steve. May be Minding just improved past Ballydoyle, but I thought latter did not have the pace for 7f today. Minding seemed travelling best from halfway and might be the 1000 Guineas candidate. Think that’s the last time you’ll see Ballydoyle at 7f. 1m this season, 1m2f+ next. Still looks (if anything) an Oaks sort to me, but may be that’s my confirmation bias?
Watching it live, did anyone else get the impression Heffernan was willing Joseph on? Given a much less forceful ride and didn’t even look happy about winning.
Value Is EverythingSky Bet go 5/1 jf Emotionless and Air Force Blue, I think it’s a no brainer that the horse with the stronger form and the most prolific stable in the recent history of the race, is the much better bet of the two.
Yes Steve I agree, at 5/1 the two – Air Force Blue is the “better bet of the two” at this time. But the comparisson means nothing when assessing what’s actually the better bet of the two.
Who is going to take 5/1 Emotionless when much bigger is available? Again, judging the value of two horses by taking the worst possible odds about the horse’s price you’re dissing – against the best price available for the horse you like.
For me, when judging “the much better bet of the two” the true comparisson is by quoting the best prices available.
Dewhurst should tell us more.
Value Is EverythingThanks Ginge, So happy that Sole Power got his mojo back today.
You’re right the Dewhurst will tell us more and looking forward to possibly seeing some of these fancied 2yo’s in the flesh at Newmarket. I’ll try to get some pics. :)
Hopefully the next six weeks will reveal much more about next years Classic hopefuls..
I did watch the Moyglare live and was willing Ballydoyle to fight back when Minding came alongside her but she didn’t have it in her today, interesting what you said about Heffernan though, nothing short of a flying dismount before the winning post would have stopped Minding passing her …JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Tabarrak could be out again on Friday or Saturday. Ran a cracker on debut, looking forward to seeing him out again.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I was quoting SkyBets odds, and solely focussing on the fact that they have Emotionless and Air Force Blue joint favourites for the 2000 Guineas. It does not matter if someone is offering 100/1 on Emotionless, my point is in the thinking of the odds compiler for SkyBets and his/her logic in deciding the horses hold an equal chance. My point is being derailed yet again.
Talking of the Dewhurst and early betting, two firms have Emotionless favourite and Paddy Power have Air Force Blue favourite. I would reckon that 95 times out of 100 you would favour a Coventry runner-up, Phoenix winner, National winner profile to a Champagne Stakes winner, going into a Dewhurst. The Champagne Stakes has a terrible record for producing Guineas winners in the last generation and in my memory very few have gone on to win the Dewhurst as well. Distant Music is the last one I can recall but he was only 8th in Kings Best’s Guineas, having whipped the same horse at 2yo.
Racebets go 15/8 Air Force Blue and that has got to be the bet for me in the Dewhurst. Paddy Power only go 11/10. Best price on Emotionless is 6/4.
ps SkyBet must have read this thread, because they cut Air Force Blue to 4/1, leaving Emotionless on 5/1. Only one firm go 5/1 Air Force Blue now and that is Sporting Bet.
Air Force Blue has all the right things happening for him here, connections have said he is “A little bit special” and they never stick their necks out like that
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve I’ve got visions of you cutting and pasting all the things you have said on here onto the 2000 Guineas Thread next April/May
. You will have to open a Covert Operations Thread with access limited by password only to stop those scoundrels at Skybet from getting access to your information before we can get on at the best odds..I’m useless at Ante Post betting anyway (Hmmm I’m the one who took Shalaa 20/1 to win the Guineas and he’ll probably be aimed at everything but in 2016
). Good luck, it’s going to make the waiting really interesting to see how the betting fairs and for me the Guineas Meeting can’t come soon enough.Nathan..I’ll be looking out for Tabarrak at Newbury Friday or Saturday.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Any news on when Proconsul aka Frankels younger brother would be making his race debut ?
Steve I’ve got visions of you cutting and pasting all the things you have said on here onto the 2000 Guineas Thread next April/May
. You will have to open a Covert Operations Thread with access limited by password only to stop those scoundrels at Skybet from getting access to your information before we can get on at the best odds..I’m useless at Ante Post betting anyway (Hmmm I’m the one who took Shalaa 20/1 to win the Guineas and he’ll probably be aimed at everything but in 2016
). Good luck, it’s going to make the waiting really interesting to see how the betting fairs and for me the Guineas Meeting can’t come soon enough.Nathan..I’ll be looking out for Tabarrak at Newbury Friday or Saturday.
JacAs far as ante-post betting this season goes, I’ve had zero joy in the Classics. Plenty of horses at big prices who started a fair bit, or a lot, shorter but all to no avail. The most galling ante-post incident this year was a confident treble selected ante-post for Royal Ascot, with Solow at 7/2, Free Eagle at 6/1 and Limato at 6/1.
Meatloaf sang “Two out of three ain’t bad” but he’s obviously never been sat waiting with two legs landed and then watched the third leg finish second. Muhaarar has been the find of the season in many ways, I didn’t see him coming at all and good luck to him, however I just wonder if Henry Candy regrets sending Limato to Haydock, when it wasn’t originally on the agenda, and then doubtful because of the ground.
Henry Candy had said that was probably best to go straight to Royal Ascot as Limato didn’t need much work to get him fit. The horse won first time out at two and again at three, so why squeeze another run into him? Part of the reasoning seemed to be the need to support Haydock for putting a nice race on. I’m sorry but nicety is one thing and winning the big pot another.
Not trying to be critical of trainers here but every season you seem to see little mistakes and for me the biggest howler this year was Dermot Weld with Zawraq. He stated quite categorically that you don’t work horses at home over longer distances to see if they are likely to stay the Derby trip. Fast Forward a few days and, lo and behold, they work him over the longer trip at home to find out if he was likely to stay at Epsom. The horse picked up an injury in that gallop, missed the Derby and eventually was ruled out for the entire year.
Whatever horse you end up backing ante-post you need a bit of luck over the winter and have to hope the trainer makes the right calls on the way there.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
William Haggas’ Special Season caught a few eyes, including mine, when dismantling his field by seven lengths on his debut. The son of Lope De Vega is entered up at Newbury tomorrow, where he is a shade of odds-on for the Haynes, Hanson and Clark conditions stakes over a mile.
Special Season entered the 2000 Guineas betting after his debut win, yet looking at this race it is not a race I associate with Guineas horses. From the glory of Henbit and Shergar winning it as we ushered in the 1980’s there have been fewer notable winners and those have been at distances in excess of a mile.
Rainbow Quest, Unfuwain, Kings Theatre and Nayef are the names that jump off the page at me in the history of the race and they were stayers. Off the top of my head I would say Duck Row and Wentworth were the fastest horses I can recall from this race.
It is a mile and it is soft ground, so Special Season will need to stay well on his second start. Even with his impressive start to his career, I would be wary of taking odds on tomorrow.
Over at Ayr we see good early 2yo Easton Angel drop down in trip and markedly in grade for the listed Harry Roseberry stakes. She ran behind Besharah and Lumiere in the Lowther last time and I suspect the trainers of those two will need to be on oxygen, valium and prozac if Michael Dod’s filly doesn’t land this race tomorrow. She looks a 5f horse and I expect her to win this tomorrow. 11/10 is not a great price but she looks hard to beat here.
Just to add regarding a big price each-way for Easton Angel’s race and Willytheconqueror caught my eye at 16/1. William Muir’s Kodiac colt made his debut back in April but we didn’t see him again until earlier this month, where he made all to win at Bath and turn over an odds on shot who was rated 88. He needs to find more here but it wasn’t a bad effort after his time off last time, he still has scope and is quite a nice looking sort who kept on really well last time, starting to get on top in closing stages after sitting out in front and looking to be there for swallowing up.
Willytheconqueror 16/1 for a fun option.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The curse of the back end racing as Special Season gets beat at 8/13f and Easton Angel is absolutely and utterly pathetic at odds on up at Ayr.
A big kick in the nuts for the Lowther form of Besharah and Lumiere as Michael Dods filly never looked like winning and was thrashed out of sight.
I had a bad feeling about Special Season at the price today but thought Easton Angel at 11/10 was fair enough. Today’s runaway winner Quiet Reflection had finished behind Easton Angel in the Lowther so it makes it look like the latter horse either has had enough for the year or had some sort of problem today.
You could argue that today’s winner perhaps enjoyed the drop in trip but if we think Easton Angel didn’t run her race here, it doesn’t leave the winner having to do much to lift this race in all probability.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I don’t know if anyone has flagged up Nathra as one to follow , but the John Gosden filly
fairly hosed up at Newbury there in very likeable fashion . Definitely one for my old notebook ,
crammed as it is .Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I don’t know if anyone has flagged up Nathra as one to follow , but the John Gosden filly
fairly hosed up at Newbury there in very likeable fashion . Definitely one for my old notebook ,
crammed as it is .Not sure that was much of a maiden Himself. I am always wary of these wide margin winners of soft ground maidens anyway. In most of the races today the reports have the word “Weakened” littered amongst them and it was an incredible 17 lengths between the second horse Satellite and the third horse in a mile and half race today, which is utterly shocking in a handicap race in particular, especially one with 15 lengths and 54 lengths further down the report expressing a race that panned out like Red Marauder’s Grand National.
On a cheerier note Haggle will surely provide a boost for Luca Cumani in the maiden at Newmarket. Third on her 2yo debut behind Ballydoyle and Nemoralia, both fillies have advertised the form of that race since in impressive fashion and I feel normal progress makes her a shoo-in bet at 5/4 tomorrow. It’s the time of year for funny results but odds against looks a gift here.
Don’t Haggle, just take the 5/4 and shaft the bookie
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The curse of the back end racing as Special Season gets beat at 8/13f and Easton Angel is absolutely and utterly pathetic at odds on up at Ayr.
A big kick in the nuts for the Lowther form of Besharah and Lumiere as Michael Dods filly never looked like winning and was thrashed out of sight.
I had a bad feeling about Special Season at the price today but thought Easton Angel at 11/10 was fair enough. Today’s runaway winner Quiet Reflection had finished behind Easton Angel in the Lowther so it makes it look like the latter horse either has had enough for the year or had some sort of problem today.
You could argue that today’s winner perhaps enjoyed the drop in trip but if we think Easton Angel didn’t run her race here, it doesn’t leave the winner having to do much to lift this race in all probability.
I backed Quiet Reflection today because I thought the drop in trip would suit the horse since it was a wide margin winner on its debut and that, generally, it looked a good value bet. Easton Angel has been highly tried during the season and, as you mentioned, perhaps this race finally caught up with her.
Special Season was a disappointment though and I’ve already put a line through him. I too thought that his odds of 8/13 looked a bit OTT but I still kinda expected him to win. The winner, Stormy Antarctic, is a big strapping horse though and has boosted the form line that connects Madrinho and Venturous … leading up to the very classy Emotionless.
Just waiting to see how Priceless and Zonderland will perform now
Jac
. You will have to open a Covert Operations Thread with access limited by password only to stop those scoundrels at Skybet from getting access to your information before we can get on at the best odds..
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