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Sanus Per Aquam was disappointing again today and was only third to Johannes Vermeer. His early form had looked smart but I went off him after he disappointed behind Deaville and he was short enough today. Johannes Vermeer made good progress on his second start, after being third on his debut and looks to be going the right way. Darren mentioned him early on in this thread and he looks a nice prospect.
Time will tell if Sanus Per Aquam is another of Jim Bolger’s sons of Teofilo who doesn’t seem to go on from early promise. Maybe Jim will have more luck with the New Approach colt Herald The Dawn in the National Stakes tomorrow.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
They are blaming the ground for Sanus Per Aquam but I don’t buy it. He just looks slow to me.
5/4 for that horse is the most ridiculous price I’ve seen today. Not saying he wasn’t in with a chance but jaysus, talk about zero value.
Regarding the 5/1 on Emotionless, I have said several times on this forum that I always quote the shortest price on the lists, to show how strongly some firms feel about a performance. It is self evident that people can shop around on Oddschecker or Easyodds for the best price.
Even at 8/1 I am not of mind to back him. In fact I looked at him earlier when he was 20/1 and passed him by purely because of the connections. Had it been Gosden or O’Brien I would have waded in but I’ve seen too many of these “New Pegasus” types fail to do the business in the big race. True Story was an excellent recent example, who had people running to back him ante-post for the Derby when running away with the Fielden Stakes by seven lengths. He was hailed as special by Kieren Fallon, only to get stuffed at odds on in the Dante, when the excuses started coming and we were told we would see a different horse in the Derby. We did, he was seventh instead of third!
It’s all a matter of opinion but it will be seventeen years since one of Godolphin’s specific trainers lifted a 2000 Guineas when they line up in May next year and given the money they invest, that’s a fairly modest strike rate at getting the job done in the big one.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Regarding the 5/1 on Emotionless, I have said several times on this forum that I always quote the shortest price on the lists, to show how strongly some firms feel about a performance. It is self evident that people can shop around on Oddschecker or Easyodds for the best price.
Even at 8/1 I am not of mind to back him. In fact I looked at him earlier when he was 20/1 and passed him by purely because of the connections. Had it been Gosden or O’Brien I would have waded in but I’ve seen too many of these “New Pegasus” types fail to do the business in the big race. True Story was an excellent recent example, who had people running to back him ante-post for the Derby when running away with the Fielden Stakes by seven lengths. He was hailed as special by Kieren Fallon, only to get stuffed at odds on in the Dante, when the excuses started coming and we were told we would see a different horse in the Derby. We did, he was seventh instead of third!
It’s all a matter of opinion but it will be seventeen years since one of Godolphin’s specific trainers lifted a 2000 Guineas when they line up in May next year and given the money they invest, that’s a fairly modest strike rate at getting the job done in the big one.
Not to mention Beautiful Romance who is beautifully bred and the perfect oaks “type”. Godolphin ran her first time up this season over seven furlongs then missed the classics came back and run a shocker before winning abroad.
Any horse owned by Godolphin you have to be very wary of backing for a classic, they have this great knack of fkng horses up between two and three.
Regarding the 5/1 on Emotionless, I have said several times on this forum that I always quote the shortest price on the lists, to show how strongly some firms feel about a performance. It is self evident that people can shop around on Oddschecker or Easyodds for the best price.
5/1; 6, 7, 8 and at one time 10 and 12/1 were available after the Champagne Stakes. Shortest ante-post prices that are so far out of kilter (as this is) are usually offered because of liabilities. If Sky had laid some big bets previously at 20/1 or more, then they are going to offer a short price. Everyone – even Sky’s odds compilers who’ve offered 5/1 – probably agree with you. But is 5/1 relevent?
Sorry Steve, I can see your point – of sorts. Just seems strange when I back something at one price; then I see someone criticising that horse for being poor value by quoting odds around half the price available.
Value Is EverythingIt’s a long way to Newmarket in May and other promising sorts are out there. I feel second favourite for the race is probably where he should be but 5/1 favourite is suicide city this far away from the race.
The Dewhurst is said to be the next step and we should get a better idea there about the strength of the form.
Who’s going to take 5/1 when much bigger is available?
Taking 5/1 is certainly “suicide city” when 8/1 is available. Even 12/1 was available after the race.
It was a magnificent performance for one so inexperienced. Added to that conformation and breeding to die for. Scope to improve considerably. It’s true Godolphin hasn’t had much in the recent past and some seem to be ruined before they’re three years old. But they haven’t had a really special two year old in that time. Appleby hasn’t been training for Godolphin long either and hopefully Emotionless will over-winter in Britain.
If this horse were trained by AOB he’d be Evens favourite for the 2000. Yes, should be longer because it’s Godolphin and I wouldn’t take 5/1 if that was top price; but around 8/1 is imo well worth taking a chance.
Sorry for the double post
Was a very up and down day for racing today. The Ledger and GH results were obviously filled with controversy but we saw 2 fantastic horses today.
Emotionless was vastly impressive in a Group 2 after one start previously. Naturally the bookies will lump onto it. I think an early(ish) Group 1 next season will show us all were we are with that one.
Limato has shown countless times how classy he is. I don’t know the situation with him in regards to next season but i think Henry Candy alluded to him staying on for next season. He is only 3, another pre season of growth will see him having an unbeatable 4yo campaign IMO. What a turn of foot.
Regarding the 5/1 on Emotionless, I have said several times on this forum that I always quote the shortest price on the lists, to show how strongly some firms feel about a performance. It is self evident that people can shop around on Oddschecker or Easyodds for the best price.
5/1; 6, 7, 8 and at one time 10 and 12/1 were available after the Champagne Stakes. Shortest ante-post prices that are so far out of kilter (as this is) are usually offered because of liabilities. If Sky had laid some big bets previously at 20/1 or more, then they are going to offer a short price. Everyone – even Sky’s odds compilers who’ve offered 5/1 – probably agree with you. But is 5/1 relevent?
Sorry Steve, I can see your point – of sorts. Just seems strange when I back something at one price; then I see someone criticising that horse for being poor value by quoting odds around half the price available.
What liability’s ginge, on the Leger thread you said Ante Post bets are small.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
What liability’s ginge, on the Leger thread you said Ante Post bets are small.
That’s exactly why liabilities count more with early market ante-post betting Nathan. Bookmakers have had a comparitively small number of individual bets at this early stage. This means a particular bookmaker could have a large percentage of his overall take (heavy liability) on just one or two horses – so only offer a comparitively much shorter price. Another bookmaker who’s had very little money for that particular horse may offer a much bigger price.
Value Is EverythingAnte-post betting counts for little, not much money is wagered
That’s what you wrote on the Leger thread Mark.
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Cracking performance from Emotionless. Always nice to see a jockey pulling double on a horse and looking around to see where the others are.
Priceless (filly), Special Season and Zonderland are three others who I’m very curious to see run again.
Ante-post betting counts for little, not much money is wagered
That’s what you wrote on the Leger thread Mark.
That’s right Nathan, the overall amount wagered is “not much” compared to day of race. That doesn’t mean that individual bets are any smaller. This means in the early stages of an ante-post market (as this is) a bookmaker may have a large percentage of that small amount of money is on one or two horses.
When Emotionless won his maiden say he came in to the market @ 25/1 with one bookmaker, 20/1 with a couple and 16/1 most. Now say there were some sizable bets struck at 25/1 and they brought it down to 14/1. That bookmaker probably has many horses who they’ve had very few bets struck at this early stage. Other bookmakers who at start of betting had him at 16/1 probably had very little if any liabilities on Emotionless, but do on other horses…
When Emotionless wins the Champagne in impressive style the bookmaker who’s taken those sizable bets and got (at this early stage) big liabilities – does not want to take any more money – so offers comparitively short odds. The bookmakers with little or no money/liabilities for the horse at their previous 16/1 can now afford to offer a bigger price.
Value Is EverythingChanging the subject a little..
Ballydoyle looks a solid bet to win the Moyglare at the Curragh tomorrow, however a little each way value
Great Page should not be overlooked at an unbelievable 25/1 generally on offer at the moment.
She will love the ground and her best run has to be at Deauville on 22nd August when she beat stable companion Marenko by a quarter of a length and Marenko ran so well on Friday just going down to Turret Rocks in The Mayhill.
This is a big step into Group 1 company but she is well thought of and could improve significantly on her last outing.
Ballydoyle to win
Great Page (EW)
Reverse Forecast
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Changing the subject a little..
Ballydoyle looks a solid bet to win the Moyglare at the Curragh tomorrow, however a little each way value
Great Page should not be overlooked at an unbelievable 25/1 generally on offer at the moment.
She will love the ground and her best run has to be at Deauville on 22nd August when she beat stable companion Marenko by a quarter of a length and Marenko ran so well on Friday just going down to Turret Rocks in The Mayhill.
This is a big step into Group 1 company but she is well thought of and could improve significantly on her last outing.
Ballydoyle to win
Great Page (EW)
Reverse ForecastJac
Sorry for the derailment Jac, thanks for putting the carriages back on track.
Hopefully Ballydoyle does the biz today by staying on, as she’s my Oaks filly. Not a gimme though, Blue Bayou and Tanaza interesting. Can see your thinking with Great Page, although if I was playing it would be Minding.
Value Is EverythingThere isn’t much between Ballydoyle and Tanaza, both had Turret Rocks about 2 lengths behind in their victories. The consensus is that Tanaza will act better on the slight yield but it would have to be seen to be believed. At 9/2 she looks more value, but its very close.
They both had different races last time as well with Ballydoyle making the running and being ridden hard with a furlong to go and pushing out comfortably.
Tanaza was held up mid div and crept closer till leading a furlong out and pushing out comfortably.It looks between these two but I can’t rule out Blue Bayou.
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