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Minella came into the race bang in form last year , this year he,s bang out of form carrying a ton more weight , no doubt he,ll run well but does anyone believe he,s a 160 horse …
He certainly has been clobbered Minella Times and no surprise to see him go to Fairyhouse off his Irish mark as they are allowed to use a claimer in that race.
Saying that Any Second Now got half a clobbering as well which was a bit harsh IMO.
Once a horse has won the National, the following year connections are only concerned about winning it again, hence the 66/1 and 25/1 SPs of his two runs. 161 OR this time around compared to 146 last year. Looked capable of better immediately afterwards, but F and P couldn’t be much worse this term… And even if coming back to form is hard to see Minella Times improving enough to win again.
Value Is EverythingWeights already set to increase by at least 4lb as Elliot yesterday scratched Galvin, conflated.
Along with Milan Native and BraesideVF x
I hope Elliott trains Galvin for this next year. He will have a lot of weight but he is clearly not good enough to win a Gold Cup on this year’s evidence.
Galvin’s chance in a Gold Cup would be significantly improved in a soft ground strongly run Gold Cup, CAS. Got neither this year. But yes, if the true state of Cheltenham’s ground isn’t soft or heavy next season then the Grand National would probably be Galvin’s best option.
Value Is EverythingAgree Ginger, conditions turned against him this year. However, given normal weather and how well Cheltenham drains, the chances are the Gold Cup is not going to be run on really testing ground any time soon.
I think he has National written all over him.
Galvin could improve more back over further CAS, so see where you’re coming from.
Value Is EverythingI quite like the look of Commodore for Venetia Williams in this. Stable going well, looks to have been lightly raced this season with this in mind, jumps well, and seems to go well on any ground. Wasn’t stopping over 3m2f last time, giving Santini a good beating (albeit receiving a lot of weight). 50/1 or 90’s on the exchanges looks big.
Leaves Melon , Chris Dream and Franco De Port at the top of the hcap …..3 horses that find winning races hard !! , Jesus just seen Anibale fly is entered !! , the more I look the more I think Fiddlerontheroof is a cracking e.w bet , 8 and still improving , if he can bring that hennessy run here he,s got a cracking chance off 155 , the others catching my eye are Farclas and coko beach who,s looked like a plot job for this for a while , he,s got a lovely weight
Full list of the 77 remaining entries for the 2022 Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 4m2f74y at Aintree Racecourse on Saturday, April 9 (5.15pm)
Total Prize Fund £1,000,000HORSE AGE/WGT RATING OWNER TRAINER
1 Chris’s Dream (IRE) 10-11-10 162 Robcour Henry de Bromhead IRE
2 Minella Times (IRE) 9-11-09 161 J P McManus Henry de Bromhead IRE
3 Delta Work (FR) 9-11-08 160 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
4 Easysland (FR) 8-11-07 159 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
5 Any Second Now (IRE) 10-11-07 159 J P McManus Ted Walsh IRE
6 Run Wild Fred (IRE) 8-11-07 158 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
7 Lostintranslation (IRE) 10-11-05 157 Taylor & O’Dwyer Colin Tizzard
8 Brahma Bull (IRE) 11-11 05 157 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
9 Battleoverdoyen (IRE) 9-11-05 157 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
10 Burrows Saint (FR) 9-11-04 156 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
11 Mount Ida (IRE) 8-11-04 156 KTDA Racing Gordon Elliott IRE
12 Longhouse Poet (IRE) 8-11-03 155 Sean & Bernardine Mulryan Martin Brassil IRE
13 Fiddlerontheroof (IRE) 8-11-03 155 Taylor, Burley & O’Dwyer Colin Tizzard
14 Two For Gold (IRE) 9-11-02 154 May We Never Be Found Out Partnership 2 Kim Bailey
15 Santini (GB) 10-11-01 153 Richard & Lizzie Kelvin-Hughes Polly Gundry
16 Samcro (IRE) 10-11-00 152 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
17 Chatham Street Lad (IRE) 10-11-00 152 Mr V Healy Michael Winters IRE
18 Farclas (FR) 8-11-00 152 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
19 Escaria Ten (FR) 8-11-00 152 McNeill Family Gordon Elliott IRE
20 Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 9-10-12 150 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nigel Twiston-Davies
21 Lord du Mesnil (FR) 9-10-12 150 Paul Porter & Mike & Mandy Smith Richard Hobson
22 Coko Beach (FR) 7-10-12 150 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
23 De Rasher Counter (GB) 10-10-11 149 Makin’ Bacon Partnership Emma Lavelle
24 Caribean Boy (FR) 8-10-11 149 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson
25 Court Maid (IRE) 9-10-11 149 Rory Larkin Henry De Bromhead IRE
26 Kildisart (IRE) 10-10-10 148 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Ben Pauling
27 Discorama (FR) 9-10-10 148 Andrew Gemmell/Thomas Friel Paul Nolan IRE
28 Highland Hunter (IRE) 9-10-10 148 Thomas Barr Paul Nicholls
29 Top Ville Ben (IRE) 10-10-10 148 Harbour Rose Partnership Philip Kirby
30 Enjoy d’Allen (FR) 8-10-10 148 Railway View Stud Partnership Ciaran Murphy IRE
31 Anibale Fly (FR) 12-10-10 148 J P McManus Tony Martin IRE
32 Dingo Dollar (IRE) 10-10-10 148 M Warren J Holmes R Kidner & J Wright Sandy Thomson
33 Freewheelin Dylan (IRE) 10-10-09 147 Sheila Mangan Dermot McLoughlin IRE
34 Class Conti (FR) 10-10-09 147 Simon Munir/Isaac Souede Willie Mullins IRE
35 Noble Yeats (IRE) 7-10-09 147 Robert Waley-Cohen Emmet Mullins IRE
36 Mighty Thunder (GB) 9-10-09 147 Allson Sparkle Ltd Lucinda Russell
37 Cloth Cap (IRE) 10-10-09 147 Exors of the late Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O’Neill
38 Snow Leopardess (GB) 10-10-08 146 Andrew Fox-Pitt Charlie Longsdon
39 Agusta Gold (IRE) 9-10-08 146 Dr S P Fitzgerald Willie Mullins IRE
40 Phoenix Way (IRE) 9-10-08 146 J P McManus Harry Fry
41 Poker Party (FR) 10-10-07 145 Robcour Henry de Bromhead IRE
42 Deise Aba (IRE) 9-10-07 145 Exors of the late Trevor Hemmings Philip Hobbs
43 Blaklion (GB) 13-10-07 145 Darren & Annaley Yates Dan Skelton
44 Death Duty (IRE) 11-10-06 144 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
45 Go Another One (IRE) 10-10-06 144 Caroline Ahearn John McConnell IRE
46 Domaine de L’Isle (FR) 9-10-06 144 12 Oaks Racing and Ian Hutchins Sean Curran
47 Eclair Surf (FR) 8-10-05 143 Dominic Burke & Tim Syder Emma Lavelle
48 Fortescue (GB) 8-10-05 143 T F F Nixon Henry Daly
49 Romain de Senam (FR) 10-10-04 142 Judith Wilson David Pipe
50 Commodore (FR) 10-10-04 142 Mrs C Watson & Mrs S Graham Venetia Williams
51 School Boy Hours (IRE) 9-10-04 142 J P McManus Noel Meade IRE
52 Scoir Mear (IRE) 12-10-02 140 J P McManus Tom Mullins IR3
53 Full Back (FR) 7-10-02 140 Ashley Head Gary Moore
54 Roi Mage (FR) 10-10-02 140 Douglas Pryde Patrick Griffin IRE
55 Smoking Gun (IRE) 9-10-02 140 Barnard, Courtney, Madden, Gin & GGee’s Gordon Elliott IRE
56 Mac Tottie (GB) 9-10-01 139 Steve & Jackie Fleetham Peter Bowen
57 Kauto Riko (FR) 11-10-01 140 Mr and Mrs J. Dale and Partners Tom Gretton
58 Hill Sixteen (GB) 9-10-00 138 J Fyffe & S Townshend Sandy Thomson
59 Discordantly (IRE) 8-10-00 138 The Odd Fellows Partnership Jessica Harrington IRE
60 Plan of Attack (IRE) 9-10-00 138 A Halsall Henry de Bromhead IRE
61 Potters Corner (IRE) 12-10-00 138 All Stars Sports, Davies & Racehorse Club Christian Williams
62 Secret Reprieve (IRE) 8-10-00 138 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams
63 Robin des Foret (IRE) 12-9-13 137 The 119 Partnership John McConnell IRE
64 Mortal (IRE) 10-9-13 137 Mr A Dunlop Gordon Elliott IRE
65 Defi Bleu (FR) 9-9-13 137 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
66 Definite Plan (IRE) 10-9-13 137 James Reilly Gordon Elliott IRE
73 Mister Whitaker (IRE) 10-9-13 137 Tim Leslie Donald McCain
74 Achille (FR) 12-9-11 135 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
75 Larry (GB) 9-9-11 135 Galloping On The South Downs Partnership Gary Moore
76 Pink Eyed Pedro (GB) 11-9-11 135 David Brace David Brace
71 The Two Amigos (GB) 10-9-10 134 Bradley Partnership Nicky Martin
72 The Hollow Ginge (IRE) 9-9-08 132 The Ginge Army Nigel Twiston-Davies
73 Jerrysback (IRE) 10-9-06 130 J P McManus Philip Hobbs
74 Alpha des Obeaux (FR) 12-9-06 130 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
75 Stones And Roses (IRE) 8-9-06 130 P Reilly/C Reilly Willie Mullins IRE
76 Gwencily Berbas (FR) 11-9-06 130 Aidan Ryan David Pipe
77 Didero Vallis (FR) 9-9-06 130 Normans, Ramsay, Tufnell & Bishop Venetia Williams
I presume people are saying Galvin would be suited by soft as we know he is laden with stamina. However, looking at the formbook, I can’t see much evidence to date that he is particularly well suited by soft or heavy. I agree a longer distance would suit though.
Andrew, added Commodore last week myself, along with Roi Mage.
I’ve always talked him up, but he never really delivered, though his win at Cheltenham this season, visually, was perfect. He’s missed a few engagements since then, and with trainer in great form, he was a straightforward addition for me. He’s sitting at 49 in the field just now, so a high chance he gets in as well. The 66’s EW NRNB to six places with Betfred is decent. Think he’s a great bet.
I feel like I’ve been waiting forever to see Commodore run in the National and seeing him only need 9 more to come out; I’ve had to get in on that 66’s nrnb! I was convinced he had no chance of making the cut, but he could just squeeze in yet.
I’ve also added Eclair Surf 33’s nrnb. Again wasn’t too sure he’d get in, but could have a chance now.
That takes me up to six and I must (MUST) leave it there…. until the day. Lostintranslation keeps jumping out at me
The four I fancy at this stage are:
Farclas – ran a stormer as a seven-year-old last year, hasn’t been knocked about this season.
Fortescue – I really liked his win at Ascot, hope he sneaks in at the foot.
Cloth Cap – went well for a very long way last season, has had a wind op since – though I’m very aware he hasn’t torn up any trees this season.
Snow Leopardess – partly because a grey mare winning it would make a right old mess of the trends!No bets yet as some of my early fancies qre ground dependent/may have other targets/ may not be overly popular on the day
Brahma Bull- a reformed character. Has largely jumped well this season even in the XC before he bounced his pilot off, and even in amongst horses. Likes decent ground, stays. Am intrigued to see him over these fences.
Two For Gold- good form this season. Obvious ? over the trip but pedigree suggests he might get it
Court Maid- stays, likes decent ground, reported to have settled in well with new trainer.
Go Another One- an afterthought since it heaved it down before the Pertemps. Probably more likely go to Ayr. But might place here if the ground is decent.
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