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Watering started on the National course on Tuesday with ten millimetres applied in light of a dry previous week and similar outlook for the next seven days.Track officials plan to apply 14mm to the Mildmay course by the end of the week, with potential for rain to arrive in National week itself.
Already bet Fortescue e/w at 66s, but think he’ll be lucky to get in.
Discorama and Cloth Cap already bet as well.
Think i’ll have e/w on both
Poker Party (should just sneak in) and Court Maid. Quite fancy Highland Hunter as well, e/w, but the Nicholls yard is in another run of dreadful form.I had a quick look yesterday and there are 6 of the top 55 entered in the Scottish version and 24 from the top 55 in the Irish version
Also Easysland is 9 lb wrong in the handicap & Lostintranslation 7 lb wrong, not that it means they won’t run. Could be a chance of one in the 130’s getting a run
I’m looking at the horses at the top of the weights and I’m beginning to think that delta work is just better ability wise than all of the top 15 horses near the top
And given the way he took to unconventional fences in the cross country I’m strongly considering adding him to escaria ten
Only Fiddlerontheroof (FOTR) looks the perfect profile for a National, so although got an early Ante Post bet might top up on him. Delta Work backed him after his Cross Country win thought that 20/1 offered by bet365 would crash and indeed now only 10/1. He’s great on paper but wondering how strong that form is. Santini doesn’t have form in big fields chases but going back to 2018 did finish third in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle beaten by 4.5 lengths, with 20 runners it’s the biggest field he’s faced under rules, the question is can he transfer his hurdle form to chases. If he can then he must have a terrific chance. However that was 5 years ago which might count against him.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.On the first page of this thread I mentioned about how Any Second Now couldn’t be put up much for his effort in last year’s National. Getting almost brought down and losing a lot of ground before finishing well to be a good third. Further 6lbs is about what I expected. Didn’t expect him to win the Bobbyjo though. A win that makes him look a well handicapped horse who’s already got Aintree experience.
Rightly favourite and should imo be quite a bit shorter.
That said, bookies seem to like offering a double figure price about the favourite so he’ll probably be 10/1 on the day if you can get it… And hopefully Bet365 will do a free place bet too which will mean an over-broke place market on betfair.Value Is EverythingDelta Work is my main fancy now + I’ve taken 16-1 earlier this week. I will firm up on my others in the lead up
Will Delta Work jump well enough over these fences carrying the weight? That’s the question.
Delta Work has made mistakes over conventional fences in the past, Mike.
However, if he can jump the unconventional fences of the x-country so well, I’d have thought should jump the Grand National fences fairly well too.One problem I have for Delta Work is whether he’ll be over what was a hard race on pretty soft ground. Will see if he gets there. If fit and well will have good chance but that is – for me – quite a big IF at this stage.
Value Is Everything“However, if he can jump the unconventional fences of the x-country so well, I’d have thought should jump the Grand National fences fairly well too.”
The x country fences are a piece of cake in comparison i would’ve thought, especially the sedate pace in testing ground they went this time around. We will see how he copes.
The thing telling me to not go with Delta Work is the big weight, he would have here. Only Many Clouds if I’m not mistaken has carried the highest since the great Red Rum, and the ground will be much different to the heavy going they endured in the cross country?
VF x
As many as 21 are down to run a week before the Grand National in either the Scottish National (April 2nd) or Topham (April 8th) which means they can’t take their place in the National itself if they ran. 14 of them are in the final field which means Smoking Gun may currently be the bottom weight.
Those engaged in Topham who might alter the final field are Battleoverdoyen, Samcro, Chatham Street Lad, Commodore, Romain De Senam and Roi Mage.
Those in the Scottish National who likewise might alter the final field are Lord Du Mesnil, Highland Hunter, Mighty Thunder, Blaklion, Go Another One, Domaine De L’Isle, Eclair Surf and Fortescue.
The others are Mac Tottie, Discordantly, Mister Whitaker, Pink Eyed Pedro, and Didero Vallis in the Topham
Hill Sixteen in Ayr Scottish Grand National.Via Dolorosa entered in both.
Should Hill Sixteen win or run well in the Scottish version, then that’s gotta be a form boost to Snow Leopardess.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Don’t fall for that one Viking.
Since Red Rum the number of “big weights” have been greatly outnumbered by “the rest”. eg If memory serves, when Young Hustler ran he was the only horse carrying more than 11 stone… And way back when… some top weights were automatic top weights in the days when French and Czech runners were given 12 – 00. In truth, those weighted high – who had a good chance – did run well.However, one reason higher weights haven’t got as good a winning record is the better (higher weighted) horses have not been risked. ie If a trainer has a horse on the mark of 160 (same mark as Delta Work) who is known to be still improving, connections are thinking they’ll have a Gold Cup horse on their hands so don’t risk running until it’s evident is not good enough for the Gold Cup… Trouble is if it is evident to connections it is evident to the handicapper what the horse is capable of too and as a consequence is no longer ahead of its mark.
So (particularly when the Grand National was more dangerous than it is now) not many weighted 11-07 and above had been well enough weighted. But there are exceptions and Delta Work’s X-Country in going so far clear of the third pretty much proves he’s at least reasonably handicapped and – if Tiger Roll ran to his current handicap mark – well handicapped by a pound or two… If Tiger Roll ran to his Grand National form then Delta Work is very well handicapped. imo Most likely to be up to 3 lbs well-in. So he’s definitely one to consider. Although there will imo be one or two better handicapped this year, including with just 1 lb less Any Second Now.
Value Is EverythingHighland Hunter out with an injury. Deise Aba comes into the 40.
Pity, thought HH was one of the few UK horses who could break into the Irish stranglehold. Deise Aba comes in off 145.
I imagine Samcro and Battleoverdoyen’s Topham entries are to give Death Duty as much chance as possible to get in, in the event there aren’t many taken out next Monday. I can’t see too many coming out myself, so they may need to resort to it.
I’m amazed Jonjo is going to be allowed to run Easysland with form figures of PPP to his name.
“The x country fences are a piece of cake in comparison i would’ve thought, especially the sedate pace in testing ground they went this time around. We will see how he copes”.
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X-Country fences may not be stiff, Mike; but Delta Work jumped them well. Making mistakes in the race without falling still takes a lot out of a horse. Generally those jumping the unusual fences well are featured in the finish. Those going to Aintree having only experienced conventional fences sometimes don’t seem to take to the different fences. Those who jump / take to the unusual and varied X-Country fences so well usually take to Aintree too. Gordon Elliott has used the X-country for both his Grand National winners.
Value Is Everything
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